NASDAQ

"You can't go up forever," noted Bob Pisani before piling on a series of excuses for the recent 'weakness' that quite frankly could have been used at any 1.1% drop in stocks of the last 3 years... While stocks bounced off lows today and are making the headlines for a third down day for the first time in 2 months, the real story that most are ignoring is the surge in the JPY. The USD is legging lower confusing the 'Taper' chatter but it is the JPY strength that is dominating (up 3.6% against the USD in the last 4 days (and the Nikkei futures -800 from Friday's highs). Treasuries rallied 3-4bps (and the curve flattened) as it seems the modest weakness in stocks is being met with some safe-haven demand. Despite bonds' bid, Homebuilders were battered (-4.5% on the week). Gold and silver strengthened off pre-open lows as WTI fell back to around $104. VIX spiked to 13.9% at the open but ended around 13% at the close. Back to CNBC for the close: "off the lows," but not in credit Maria...

This 4 year Bull market has been registering new all-time highs on a nearly daily basis. Days like today’s 57 basis point drop in the S&P 500 are being mocked as a correction or large sell off for the current environment. It appears that after so many years of the “Great Rotation” being hyped, the public has (to an extent) been trained to take their Bond fund proceeds and roll them into equity ETFs. While it is unlikely that baby boomer money will come back to equities and sustain the rotation, there is money flowing in. While we are no fans of the bond market, we are still stunned that there are people selling “safe” assets and rolling the proceeds into “risky” assets at all-time highs. There are three cornerstones to our current view that risk far outweighs opportunity...

S&P futures volume was the lowest of 2013 for a non-holiday-related day (35% below last year's volume and 40% below recent average volume). NYSE volume the second lowest of the year. Tech and Staples managed small gains on the day but homebuilders and utilities underperformed as bond yields rose 3 to 5bps on the day. The 'anxiety' in stocks showed itself with another appearance of the Hindenburg Omen (which has signaled short-term weakness in the last six months). The Russell closed green and thanks to AAPL, the Nasdaq eked out a small gain. Trannies were down 0.8% in their now-ubiquitous schizophrenic manner as 'most-shorted' names outperformed significantly. The USD slid lower from the US open ending -0.1% (with JPY strength dominant) but commodities were worse down 0.5% (WTI) to 1% (silver and gold) on the day. VIX was clubbed lower (to 11.8% - its lowest close in 5 months) right at the close to ramp stocks into the cash close.

Friday's very disappointing non-farm payroll number may have had zero impact on stocks, which after opening deep in the red, following the latest Fed-induced all day zero volume ramp, closed at the all time highs (because when you can't BTFD you BTFATH), but it sure worked miracles on the 10 Year to keep it from tumbling below the critical 2.75% level (in no small part aided by the rampant momentum ignition manipulation in the 10 Year moments before the BLS released its data). Yet does Friday's move change anything in the Ten-Year Trendline? According to Bank of America technical strategist MacNeil Curry, not at all.

The past few weeks have seen the tech and business media abuzz about a not-so-little warehouse in Tennessee. That's because this distribution center, opening its doors with a burst of fanfare and even a few visits from nearby politicians, isn't a jumping-off point for Macy's or Target. Instead, the warehouse is the latest in a series of new locations being opened by retail technology giant Amazon.com. The jobs this new mega-warehouse is purported to create: 5,000. However, as we discuss below, for every job Amazon "creates," four other jobs go away at a company like TJX.

• Low Wages Work Against Jobs Optimism (WSJ)
• Tourre’s Junior Staff Defense Seen Leading to Trial Loss (BBG)
• Russia gives Snowden asylum, Obama-Putin summit in doubt (Reuters)
• Fortress to Blackstone Say Now Is Time to Sell on Surge (BBG)
• Brazil backs IMF aid for Greece and recalls representative (FT), previously Brazil refused to back new IMF aid for Greece, says billions at risk (Reuters)
• Google unveils latest challenger to iPhone (FT)
• Swaps Probe Finds Banks Manipulated Rate at Expense of Retirees (BBG)
• Academics square up in fight for Fed (FT)
• Potash Turmoil Threatens England’s First Mine in Forty Years (BBG)
• Dell Deal Close but Not Final (WSJ)

For the 5th time in 5 days, equity markets dropped back below their May 2013 all-time highs only to be rapidly bid back above that magical level into the close. Stocks in general went nowhere fast with another heavy volume dip and light volume rip to close the day near VWAP. Nasdaq continues to outperform from the last FOMC meeting (up over 4%) even though Tech is unchanged since 6/19. Homebuilders are the drag (down 5.5% from the last FOMC). Treasuries ended the day unchanged (selling back from a 5bps yield compression across the US open after housing data disappointed). AUD continued its overnight weakness (as did GBP) but the USD managed only very modest gains on the day. Gold flatlined as the rest of the economic-commodities slipped lower (WTI at $103 with spread to Brent testing $4). Do not panic!! The Dow closed red for a second day in a row for the first time in six weeks!

• "Ooops": Barclays reveals £12.8bn balance sheet hole (FT), Barclays Bows to Pressure With Share Sale (WSJ)
• Bank of Italy Inspecting Top Lenders' Books (WSJ)
• Obama to propose 'grand bargain' on corporate tax rate, infrastructure (Reuters)
• China injects funds into money markets, quelling fears (FT)
• Berlusconi faces verdict that could endanger Italian government (Reuters)
• Shale Threatens Saudi Economy, Warns Prince Alwaleed (WSJ)
• Qatar Finds Revolution Abroad Not as Easy as Stock Picks (BBG)
• Cities Begin Hiring Again (WSJ) - not to mention filing for bankruptcy
• Big Question Hangs Over Small-Caps (WSJ)
• China Politburo Pledges to Press On With Restructuring Economy (BBG)
• Bank Revenues Surge on Trading Over What Fed Will Do (BBG)

• The Citadel-SAC connection (BBG) - just wait until the Citadel-FRBNY connection emerges
• Letter backs Yellen for Federal Reserve role (FT) - or said otherwise, the Democrats would like the Fed to rule (and monetize deficits) for ever
• Obama, Republicans gear up for bruising U.S. budget fight (Reuters)
• Up for Debate at Fed: A Sharper Easy-Money Message (WSJ)
• UBS to Pay $885 Million to Settle U.S. Mortgage Suit (BBG), Banks shiver as UBS swallows $885 million U.S. fine (Reuters)
• Japan finmin Aso: CPI shows gradual shift to inflation from deflation (Reuters)
• Japan's PM calls for high-level talks with China (Reuters)
• Holder Targets Texas in New Voting-Rights Push (WSJ)
• Another Nightmareliner incident: Probe opened as Air India Boeing Dreamliner oven overheats midair (Reuters)
• Samsung Boosts Capital Spending as High-End Phone Demand Slows (BBG)

The S&P 500 - after failing once again to take out the 1,700 magic line - closed the day just 'off the lows' with its worst day in a week (down a modest 0.1%). Stocks saw their best levels in the overnight session (echoing yesterday's move) and faded from the European open bouncing modestly at the European close. But unlike yesterday, we were unable to hold the bounce and dropped back to the lows of the day. Materials popped (shorts cover) at the open and dumped all day (a pattern seen in every sector). The USD rose in the early morning as the EUR faded but once the US opened the USD slid lower all day as JPY was well bid (back to its highs of the week). Gold (and less-so silver initially) lurched back up to pre-Taper talk FOMC levels (as did the USD) - its best 4-day run in 20 months. WTI held steady around $107 (and the Brent spread ebbed and flowed). Treasuries saw modest weakness on the day (+1 to 2bps) but ended well off the day's worst levels. VIX rose 0.3 vols on the day (more than expected given the equity move). Volume (once again) was entirely abysmal.

Apparently, figures have just been released showing that 591 million Chinese are now on-line. That’s an increase of+10% on last year’s figure. So, the Chinese are connected.

Between Detroit's bankruptcy, Microsoft's miss and worst drop in over 13 years, and GOOG's miss (latter gobbled back by the BTFD'ers), it is no surprise that stocks rallied (thanks to GE's explosion higher and Trannies surging). Mixed bag overall in stocks with the Nasdaq -1.4% on the week and TRAN +2.2% (with the S&P and Dow around 0.6%). Treasuries 'outperformed' stocks relatively speaking with a 11-12bps compression in the belly and 6bps at the long-end on the week - ending today at the low yields of the week. As an aside, AAA muni spreads pushed to their highest in 13 months as yield remain notably elevated as Treasuries rallied. Despite a 1% weakening of the JPY, the USD ended the week down around 0.4% driven by EUR (and AUD) strength. Despite USD weakness, Silver lost 2.2% on the week while gold gained 0.7%. WTI crossed above $109 and Brent today gaining 2.25% on the week (off today's highs). VIX dumped back to 2 months lows under 13%, volume was dismal all week (worst today), but new highs all around for stocks (amid another idiotic Friday closing ramp) so we must be doing great?

In testimony yesterday on Capitol Hill before the Senate Banking Committee, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke remarked:

“Gold is an unusual asset. It's an asset that people hold as disaster insurance. A lot of people hold gold as an inflation hedge.  But movements of gold prices don't predict inflation very well, actually. But anyway, the perception is that by holding gold you have a hard asset that will protect you in case of some kind of major problem.

The S&P 500 is up 8.5% from the 6/24 lows - the best 17-day run since Oct 2011 when the world's central banks launched their unprecedented 'save-the-markets' co-ordinated easing/printfest (as an aside, the S&P fell 140pts (or 12%) in the next 2 weeks). Trannies were on top today (+1.6%) while Nasdaq took the rear (-0.25%); homebuilders are down 2% on the week and 3% post-FOMC while Utilities and Financials are running 2% higher on the week. Aways from exuberant equities, bonds cracked 8bps higher in yield off their pre-Bernanke low yield levels (with the long-end notably underperforming on the week); the USD jumped back up to unchanged on the week (as JPY dumped - aiding risk-assets); and silver and gold diverged with the former holding the week's lows as gold limped higher. The real story of the day is oil prices which screamed above $108 - highest in 14 months - crushing the Brent-WTI spread. Hedgers were active (though clearly not sellers) as VIX notably underperformed stocks (as did credit indices).

We suspect few would have expected a relatively quiet kind of day for stocks and bonds today but that is what we got - with all the action taking place at the release of Bernanke's prepared remarks. Thanks to DuPont (Peltz not talking) which added 21 points to the Dow, the Dow ended mildly green. The Nasdaq and S&P had small gains as the Trannies outperformed. Treasuries saw a notable 'hump' compression with the belly dropping 6bps but the long-end and the short-end only -2bps. VIX unwound all of yesterday's relative 'hedge' premium and closed unch to Monday. The USD ended modestly higher as did WTI (back over $106.50) but gold and copper end down 0.75% for the week. It was silver that suffered from apparent sanguineness (sic.) as it slumped 4% from the earlier highs of the day. Of course, tomorrow's another day of Bernanke as the "wait-and-see" market rolls on - closing once again perfectly at VWAP...