• Tim Knight from...
    11/26/2014 - 19:43
    I read your post Pity the Sub Genius and agreed with a lot of what you wrote. However you missed what I think is the biggest killer of middle class jobs, and that is technological...

Natural Gas

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"Failed" Bund Auction At Record Low Yield And All Other Key Overnight Events





While there has been no global economic outlook cut today, or no further pre-revision hints of "decoupling" by the appartchiks at the US Bureau of Economic Analysis,  both European and US equities are pointing at a higher open, because - you guessed it - there were more "suggestions" of "imminent" QE by a central bank, in this case it was again ECB's Constancio dropping further hints over a potential ECB QE programme, something the ECB has become the undisputed world champion in. The constant ECB jawboning, and relentless central bank interventions over the past 6 years, led to this:

  • GERMANY SELLS 10-YEAR BUNDS AT RECORD-LOW YIELD OF 0.74%

The punchline: this was another technically "failed" auction as it was uncovered, the 10th of the year, as there was not enough investor demand at this low yield, and so the Buba had to retain a whopping 18.8% - the most since May - with just €3.250Bn of the €4Bn target sold, after receiving €3.67Bn in bids.

 
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Who’s Ready For $30 Oil?





All the stimulus, all $50 trillion or so globally, has been thrown into the fire, and look at where we are. There’s nothing left, and there won’t be another $50 trillion. Sure, stock markets set records. But who cares with oil at $40? Calling for more QE, from Japan and/or Europe or even grandma Yellen, is either entirely useless or will work only to prop up stock markets for a very short time. Diminishing returns. The one word that comes to mind here is bloodbath.

 
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Frontrunning: November 24





  • Grand jury expected to resume Ferguson police shooting deliberations (Reuters)
  • PBOC Bounce Seen Short Lived as History Defies Bulls (BBG)
  • Home prices dropped in September for the first time since January (HousingWire)
  • UPS Teaches Holiday Recruits to Fend Off Dogs, Dodge NYC Taxis (BBG)
  • US oil imports from Opec at 30-year low (FT)
  • Hedge Funds Bet on Coal-Mining Failures (WSJ)
  • Putin Woos Pakistan as Cold War Friend India Buys U.S. Arms (BBG)
  • How the EU Plans to Turn $26 Billion Into $390 Billion (BBG)
  • The $31 Billion Bet Against Brazil’s New Finance Minister (BBG)
 
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In Addition To China, Here Is What Other Central-Banks Moved Overnight Markets





While the biggest news of the day will certainly be China's rate cut (and the Dutch secret gold repatriation but more on the shortly), here is a list of all the other central-banking/planning events which have moved markets overnight, because in the new normal it no longer is about any news or fundamentals, it is all about the destruction of the value of money and the matched increase in nominal asset values.

 
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Plunging Energy Prices Drag Down CPI, Offseting Jumping Food Costs





For the fourth month in a row, the shale-revolution crushing plunge in crude prices managed to push energy costs down, with the BLS reporting that "the gasoline index fell for the fourth month in a row, declining 3.0 percent, and the indexes for natural gas and fuel oil also decreased." As a result, October CPI was unchanged from a month earlier, and up 1.7% from a year ago, below the Fed's 2.0% target. However, stripping away plunging energy prices, things were a little different, with CPI ex food and energy up 0.2%, slightly above the 0.1% expected, and up from 0.1% before. But before everyone screams deflation, here is what also happened: the shelter index, airline fares, household furnishings and operations, medical care, recreation, personal care, tobacco, and new vehicles were among the indexes that increased. And for those few who have to eat, "The index for food at home has risen 3.3 percent over the last 12 months, the largest 12-month increase since April 2012." and "The index for nonalcoholic beverages rose 0.6 percent, its largest increase since September 2012."

 
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Frontrunning: November 18





  • Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Calls Snap Election (WSJ) - as repeatedly priced in...
  • Flash Boys Raising Volatility in Wild New Treasury Market (BBG)
  • Not Greece again: Greek Bailout Review Stalls as Troika Demands Final Steps (BBG)
  • Iran uses China bank to transfer funds to Quds-linked companies (Reuters)
  • Porn Mags With Free Madrid Theater Tickets in Tax Protest (BBG)
  • Hong Kong, China stocks ease on profit-taking after stock connect launch (Reuters) - Hang Seng down 500 points in past 2 days
  • Halliburton Mega-Deal Sealed by CEOs Over Coke and Coffee (BBG)
  • Wall Street to Reap $316 Million From Day of Mega Deals (BBG)
  • Mass murderer Charles Manson gets marriage license, state says (Reuters)
 
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Algos Sell The News, Then BTFD Following Much Anticipated Abe Snap Election Announcement





After weeks of relentless flashing red headline barrage whose only purpose was to force snap algo buying of the USDJPY pair time after time after time, Japan is once again out of FX algo danging carrots after moments ago Abe confirmed what everyone had known already: he called a snap election to seek a mandate for his decision to delay by 18 months a further sales-tax increase that had been planned for next year; he also said he would dissolve the lower house of parliament on Nov. 21 in preparation for an election in December, without specifying a date. Cited by the WSJ, Abe said "To ensure the success of Abenomics, I’ve concluded that it shouldn’t be carried out next October and instead be postponed by 18 months,” the prime minister told a nationally televised news conference, stressing that the additional tax burden would risk putting the economy back into deflation. “I will seek the people’s judgment over our economic policy."

 
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Industrial Production Drops; Auto Manufacturing Slumps 3rd Month In A Row - Worst Run In 5 Years





Driven by a combination of Mining (-0.9% - biggest drop in a year), Utilities (-0.7% led by a 3.2% plunge in Natural Gas) and most of all motor vehicle manufacturing (-1.2%), US Industrial Production slid 0.1% in October (notably missing expectations of a 0.2% rise). This is the 3rd monthly drop in motor vehicle & parts production - the worst consecutive run since Jan 2009. It seems the government-free-credit inspired subprime auto boom that provided just enough impetus to a fragilee conomy to enable the Fed narrative of "things are better" to play out... has ended... abruptly.

 
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The Oil Rout's First Megadeal: Baker Hughes Folds, Sells To Halliburton For $35 Billion





While it was already leaked in the past week that oil service giant Halliburton would seek to purchase Baker Hughes, or, if the smaller oilservice company did not accept the proposed terms, make a hostile run at its board of directors, it was unclear how the Houston company would respond. As the Houston Chronicle summarized, BHI had "to make a tough choice: surrender control on a rival's terms or face months of sunken oil prices and cost pressures alone....Halliburton's demands come as crude prices have fallen dramatically and as the U.S. oil industry looks to an uncertain future. Much is unclear: how much oil producers will rein in equipment and service spending, whether oil prices will sink or swim, and how much Baker Hughes would be worth in six months after what would likely be a bruising battle for control of its board." Moments ago we got the answer and Baker Hughes shareholders decided they have had enough of the volatile oil price and are happy to cash out at this point, in a $34.6 billion deal that values BHI shares at $78.62/share.

 
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Russia Is Preparing For A "Catastrophic" Oil Price Collapse





Vladimir Putin told the state-run TASS news agency that Russia's economy faces a potential "catastrophic" slump in oil prices, saying, as Bloomberg reports, such a scenario is "entirely possible, and we admit it." However, Putin reassures that with reserves at more than $400 billion, the country will weather such a turn of events because "we handle our gold and currency reserves and government reserves sparingly."

 
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There Will Be Blood - How The Fed Has Flooded The Shale Patch With Junk Debt





This is one of the consequences of the Fed’s decision to flood the land with free liquidity. When the cost of capital is near zero, and when returns on low-risk investments are near zero as well, or even below zero, investors go into a sort of coma. But when they come out of it and realize that “sunk capital” has taken on a literal meaning, they’ll shut off the spigot. Only then will drilling and production decline. As with natural gas, it can take years, and the price might plunge through a four-year low and hit a decade low – which would be near $40/bbl, a price last seen in 2009. The bloodletting would be epic.

 
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Oil Plunges As Saudis Dismiss Price War "No Basis In Reality"





WTI Crude oil prices tumbled to a $75 handle this morning as Saudi oil minister al-Naimi dismissed claims of a price-war as having "no basis in reality" noting that "Saudi oil policy has remained constant for the past few decades and it has not change today," suggesting expectations of a supply cut at the looming OPEC meetings are overdone. This comment comes after Qatar said it "may" cut output by 500k barrels/day.

 
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Global Stocks Rise, US Futures At Fresh Record On Latest Reduction Of Growth Forecasts





The relentless regurgitation of the only two rumors that have moved markets this week, namely the Japanese sales tax delay and the "surprise" cabinet snap elections, was once again all over the newswires last night in yet another iteration, and as a result the headline scanning algos took the Nikkei another 1.1% higher to nearly 17,400 which means at this rate the Nikkei will surpass the Dow Jones by the end of the week helped by further reports that Japan will reveal more stimulus measures on November 19, although with US equity futures rising another 7 points overnight and now just shy of 2050 which happens to be Goldman's revised year-end target, the US will hardly complain. And speaking of stimulus, the reason European equities are drifting higher following the latest ECB professional forecast release which saw the panel slash their GDP and inflation forecasts for the entire period from 2014 to 2016. In other words bad news most certainly continues to be good news for stocks, which in the US are about to hit another record high (with the bulk of the upside action once again concentrated between 11:00 and 11:30am).

 
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US Futures Drop As USDJPY Algos Take Profit On Headline Confusion





With the USDJPY repeatedly hitting 116.00 as a result of the same pair of headlines hitting either Reuters, the Nikkei or Sankei every 6 or so hours for the past 3 days, namely that Japan will delay its sales tax hike by almost two years, and that Abe is preparing early elections, perhaps the algos realized they were pricing in the same event about 4 times in one day, and unable to break the 7-year-high resistance level, slid dropping nearly 100 pips to just over 115 at least check, which may well be today's "tractor" level, which in turn has also dragged down both European stocks and US futures. But the thing that made the vacuum tubes really spark is that at a press conference yesterday in Beijing, Abe was quoted as saying that he "has never made any reference to the dissolution of parliament", this came after the chief cabinet secretary Suga saying that the decision on whether or not to go to the polls would be Abe’s only.

 
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