Natural Gas

Leo Kolivakis's picture

Let me repeat what I stated last August. AIMCo is lucky to have Leo de Bever as their new CEO. The politicians in Alberta should give him a chance to prove himself. I am confident he will succeed in building a great team and add long-term value to the funds he's been entrusted to manage.

Interview With A Mad Hedge Fund Trader

"I think we’ll get more of a “square root” shaped recovery, a “V” followed by sideways to a gradually upward sloping grind. We’ve already had the “V”. Markets are overpriced. I don’t see how we can have huge economic growth with capital-constrained banks, catatonic consumers, and commercial real estate troubles up the wazoo. One of the only positives is the weak dollar, which makes everything we sell to the rest of the world cheaper. This is good for our multi-national companies, good for our exporters. So far, the dollar is on a grinding, controlled move down, which is good. But if the dollar’s fall accelerates, it would not be good. A real dollar panic would lead to the widespread dumping of dollar assets, and commodity prices would explode. Then we’ll get to $2,000 for gold and $40 for silver very quickly." - Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Guest Post: On Commodity Inflation And Long Term Underemployment

The government reflation experiment has ensured that company costs cannot reach equilibrium with weak final goods markets. This is similar to the Great Depression except that artificial wage inflation has been replaced by artificial commodity inflation to create the disequlibrium. To cut rising costs, the only option is to reduce salaried employees, or shut down completely due to losses in core operations. Rising unemployment will create further weakness in final goods. This portends continued macroeconomic performance below trend for a length of time not seen since the Depression. Asset prices will eventually fall to the market solution, government intervention aimed at avoiding this harsh reality will only delay the inevitable and probably assure a more painful destination in the process.

Is This The Beginning Of The End Of The Ponzi Scheme?

"The S&P 500 future has broken the overlap around 1,037/38 and is now well established below the trendline joining the lows. After attempting to retest the 1.6165 break out of the H&S neckline 2 days ago at 1.6125 and failing, GBPUSD is back down below 1.60. The Nikkei, after a failing to breakout higher out the wedge around the tops and also failing to fill the gap left open in October, is plunging quite abruptly. The Nasdaq future fell short of challenging the overlap with the lows of July 2008 at 1762, and came back to test 1670 this morning. This last level is quite pivotal, and we would use that as a good guidance for further acceleration lower or conversely a hold could mean we reached downside potential. Personally I remain convinced that medium term we are going a lot lower in equities, a break of 1670 would only make my view nearer term than I originally thought." - Nic Lenoir

Leo Kolivakis's picture

Who Is Eyeing Clean Energy?

There is a clean energy revolution going on and it's just in its infancy. Those who can't see it are either blind or hopelessly ignorant. If pension funds are smart, they will start thinking about investing opportunistically in this sector now.

Leo Kolivakis's picture

It's not just rating agencies that are at the crossroads, but pension funds are at the crossroads too. We need a governance overhaul that introduces more transparency and a compensation system that rewards risk-adjusted returns. The status quo at rating agencies and pension funds is totally unacceptable.

asiablues's picture

In my last article, I discussed two of the major factors to this week’s run-up in natural gas - Operation Flow Orders (OFOs) and pre-configured stop orders being hit. Here, I’d like to take a look at some other concurrent distortions in the natural gas market.

asiablues's picture

Natural gas price has spiked almost 60 % since Labor Day and prompted investors to believe a V-shape recovery might be near for the brutally battered U.S. natural gas market. However, don’t break out the champagne just yet until you learn more about two of the major factors driving this latest spike, Operation Flow Orders, and the trader's perspective.

asiablues's picture

The market's upward momentum this year has hordes of investors still looking for opportunities with good entry points. With crude prices hovering around the $70/bbl range, even with reduced demand, oilfield services remains one of the more promising sectors still with room to grow.

Daily Highlights: 9.4.09

  • Unemployment rate: 9.7%, higher than the expected 9.5%.
  • Asian stock markets were mostly higher Friday, with mining stocks rising.
  • Fed’s Fisher says prolonged period of 'sluggish' economy likely.
  • Global economy is emerging from its deep slump faster than forecast: OECD.
  • ISM non-manufacturing index rises to 48.4, indicating continued contraction.
  • Lead surges to 16-month high after China vows to clean up metals industry.
  • Mortgage rates for 30-yr fixed US home loans fell this week to 5.08%: Freddie Mac.

Daily Highlights: 6.12.09

  • Retail sales rose 0.5% during May, but much of the gain due to gasoline station receipts.
  • Jobless rate will remain above 9% through the end of 2010: Economists.
  • IEA slightly raised its 2009 world crude-demand f'cast for the first time in 10 months.
  • Global economy to contract by close to 3%, worse than the prev.