While BofAML's Macneil Curry is a long-term bull on Natural Gas (with expectations of a push to $7.33 and on to $7.80), he warns, for now, its' time to move to the sidelines as a medium-term top is at hand...
- Ukraine Seeks $35 Billion as Yanukovych Warrant Is Issued (BBG)
- Ukraine's fugitive president wanted for mass murder (Reuters)
- Polar Vortex to Bring More Snow on Return to U.S. This Week (BBG)
- China property prices continue to rise (FT)
- Microsoft Said to Cut Windows Price 70% to Counter Rivals (BBG)
- Pentagon to propose shrinking Army, scrapping some jets (Reuters)
- Hedge Funds Turn Bearish on S&P 500 as VIX Advances (BBG)
- Draghi’s Data Jigsaw Takes Shape as ECB Readies Showdown (BBG)
- China, eyeing Japan, seeks WW2 focus for Xi during Germany visit (Reuters)
The bad feelings concerning Russia run deep in the Western parts of Ukraine (as they topple statues of Lenin in growing numbers) while in the East they see themselves much more as Russians. These feelings run very deep in the region and memories do not fade so easily as the mayor and police chief of Kerch vigorously defend the Ukrainian flag in the clip below - deep in the eastern Crimea region (that Russia has already suggested it is willing to go to war over). Russian President Vladimir Putin has now been placed in a very difficult position, as Martin Armstrong notes, the entire set of circumstances creates the image of events in Ukraine that have diminished the power of Russia, which is a matter of pride and the only stable resolution remains a split along the language faultline. The critical question then is - will Putin let it go?
Yulia Tymoshenko (Ukraine's "Iron Lady") Freed, Vows To "Run For President"; Addresses Protesters - Live FeedSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/22/2014 15:38 -0400
*TYMOSHENKO URGES PROTESTERS TO STAY IN INDEPENDENCE SQUARE "NOW UKRAINE IS A FREE UKRAINE:"
Yulia Tymoshenko was the heroine of the 2004 pro-Western Orange Revolution in Ukraine. But, as DPA notes, the two-time former prime minister was convicted in 2011 of abuse of power in connection with a gas deal with Russia (detailed below). This morning she was freed from prison in Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine Saturday after parliament voted for her release...
*TYMOSHENKO LEAVES HOSPITAL WHERE SHE WAS UNDER GUARD;: WEBSITE
*UKRAINE'S TYMOSHENKO SAYS SHE WILL RUN FOR PRESIDENT: ITAR TASS
and is set to address the protesters in Independence Square... (full chronology below) The US welcomed her freedom and is "closely monitoring"; Russia is displeased blaming opposition for violence. Meanwhile,
- *UKRAINE EX-INT MIN ZAKHARCHENKO CAUGHT TRYING TO FLEE BY BORDER SERVICE: IFX
Despite stockpiles imploding and prices exploding in the short-term, The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has predicted that natural gas production in the US will continue to grow at an impressive pace. Right now output is close to 70 billion cubic feet a day and is expected to reach over 100 billion cubic feet per day by 2040. The trend is likely to continue without hitting a geologic “peak”, and along with this trend will come new marketing opportunities for America. The following exclusive interview with OilPrice.com answsers some of the bigger questions...
- RBS plans dramatic scaling back, to fire 30,000 of its 120,000 workers (FT)
- Zuckerberg’s Data Stance Faces Privacy Backlash in Europe (BBG)
- WhatsApp Shows How Phone Carriers Lost Out on $33 Billion (BBG)
- Markets flooded with cash, should Fed prep to stamp out risk? (Reuters)
- Venezuela threatens to expel CNN over protest coverage (BBC)
- Firm Stops Giving High-Speed Traders Direct Access to Releases (WSJ)
- Obama Budget to Delete Proposal to Limit Social Security (BBG)
- Energy Holdings Prepares for a Breakup (WSJ)
- EU Struggles to Streamline Bank-Failure Plan for Weekends (BBG)
- Madoff said JPMorgan executives knew of his fraud (Reuters), and JPM admitted as much when it settled with the DOJ
The importing of Japan's deflation continues: in January headline consumer prices as well as prices excluding food and energy rose by 0.1%, in line with expectations, and down from a downward revised 0.2% in December. The annual increase in prices rose modestly from 1.5% to 1.6%, but still below the Fed's 2.0% target. The main reason for the increase? Why the polar vortex, and specifically soaring electricity prices as a result of the surge in nat gas. "Increases in the indexes for household energy accounted for most of the all items increase. The electricity index posted its largest increase since March 2010, and the indexes for natural gas and fuel oil also rose sharply. These increases more than offset a decline in the gasoline index, resulting in a 0.6 percent increase in the energy index."
"Polar Vortex" Shock And Awe: The Utility Bill Arrives (And Why It Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better)Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/19/2014 21:01 -0400
The "polar vortex" shock has arrived, only this time it is not in the form of another 12 inches of overnight snow accumulation but in the shape of household utility bills. A reader was kind enough to send us his just received ConEd bill for the month ended Februery 10. The result speaks for itself. It also speaks for where so much of US household disposable income will go in first quarter. Spoiler alert: not toward discretionary purchases.
With the Winter Olympics underway in Sochi, Russia is again in the global spotlight – and President Vladimir Putin is taking the opportunity to present his country as a resurgent power. But, beneath the swagger and fanfare lie serious doubts about Russia’s future. In fact, long-term price trends for the mineral resources upon which the economy depends, together with Russia’s history (especially the last two decades of Soviet rule), suggest that Putin’s luck may well be about to run out.
- Ukraine leader denounces coup bid, West weighs sanctions (Reuters)
- Time to buy Imodium calls: Kuroda Easing Doomed as Yen Seen Missing 120 Level (BBG)
- Teens Disappear From U.S. Workforce (BBG)
- Fed Sets Rules for Foreign Banks (WSJ)
- Quant Funds Feel Investor Bite After Underperforming (BBG)
- China Probes Qualcomm, InterDigital Over Monopoly Concerns (WSJ)
- Capital One says it can show up at cardholders' homes, workplaces (LATimes)
- SEC Gains Power to Take Profit Made From Insider Trading (BBG)
- Carl Icahn wins again: Actavis to Buy Forest Labs for $25 Billion (WSJ)
- ECB governing council member attacks German court ruling on OMT (FT)
- China Tackles $1 Trillion Data Gap as Xi Changes Metrics (BBG)
- FX Traders Facing Extinction as Computers Replace Humans (BBG)
- BOJ Boost to Loan Programs Signals Room for More Easing (BBG) - actually no it doesn't as it was "factored in"
- Four killed in Thai clashes; PM to face charges over rice scheme (Reuters)
- Goodbye unsterilized SMP: Bundesbank Backs Measure to Boost Funds in Banking System (WSJ)
- Iranian Hacking to Test NSA Nominee Michael Rogers (WSJ)
- Ukraine Clashes Leave Dozens Wounded as Putin Resumes Bailout (BBG)
Bill Gates’ Texas energy company has filed for bankruptcy protection as the depressed power market results in untenable financial losses... "The current depressed economic environment of the electric power industry – particularly with respect to coal-fired plants – and the debtors' liquidity constraints have resulted in continuing losses that, simply put, have left the debtors without alternatives." But what about the recovery?!
"The Vampire Squid Strikes Again"- Matt Taibbi Takes On Blythe Masters And The Banker Commodity CartelSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/13/2014 17:15 -0400
The story of how JPMorgan, Goldman and the rest of the Too Big To Fails and Prosecutes, cornered, monopolized and became a full-blown cartel - with the Fed's explicit blessing - in the physical commodity market is nothing new to regular readers: to those new to this story, we suggest reading of our story from June 2011 (over two and a half years ago), "Goldman, JP Morgan Have Now Become A Commodity Cartel As They Slowly Recreate De Beers' Diamond Monopoly." That, or Matt Taibbi's latest article written in his usual florid and accessible style, in which he explains how the "Vampire Squid strikes again" courtesy of the "loophole that destroyed the world" to wit: "it would take half a generation – till now, basically – to understand the most explosive part of the bill, which additionally legalized new forms of monopoly, allowing banks to merge with heavy industry. A tiny provision in the bill also permitted commercial banks to delve into any activity that is "complementary to a financial activity and does not pose a substantial risk to the safety or soundness of depository institutions or the financial system generally." Complementary to a financial activity. What the hell did that mean?... Fifteen years later, in fact, it now looks like Wall Street and its lawyers took the term to be a synonym for ruthless campaigns of world domination."
Word count of the word "weather" in Joe LaVorgna's latest note explaining away today's third consecutive miss in retail sales and initial claims: 8. The humor, however, is this punchline: "Eventually, though, we should see some impressive weather-related snapback in economic activity." Wait, so the weather will deposit a few thousand dollars in all tapped-out US consumers' bank accounts? You do learn something every day.
The potential for a golden age of gas comes along with a big “if” regarding environmental and social impact. The International Energy Agency (IEA) - the "global energy authority" - believes that this age of gas can be golden, and that unconventional gas can be produced in an environmentally acceptable way.