Natural Gas

Producer Prices Unexpectedly Slide -0.4%, Missing Expectations, As Prices For Clothing, Jewelry, Beef Tumble

Just as moments ago a far weaker than expected retail sales report once again confounded economic watchers who, in the aftermath of the second month of surprisingly strong payrolls, were expecting the upward momentum to continue, so at the same time we got the latest producer price report, according to which PPI for final demand decreased 0.4% in July. 60% of the decrease in prices for final demand services is attributable to margins for apparel, jewelry, footwear, and accessories retailing, which fell 6.0 percent, while a major factor in the decrease in the index for final demand goods was prices for beef and veal, which fell 9.8%.

US Futures Rebound, European Stocks Higher As Oil Rises

The summer doldrums continue with another listless overnight session, not helpd by Japan markets which are closed for holiday, as Asian stocks fell fractionally, while European stocks rebounded as oil trimmed losses after the the IEA said pent-up demand would absorb record crude output (something they have said every single month). S&P futures have wiped out almost all of yesterday's losses and were up over 0.2% in early trading.

US Futures Flat; Bonds Rise, Dollar And Oil Slide Over US Productivity Collapse Fears

Following yesterday's muted action which saw the S&P500 close unchanged, it has been more of the same listless trading overnight, with US equity index futures little changed as the Nikkei fell on the back of a stronger Yen, while government bonds rose and European stocks reversed early gains following the BOE failed bond monetization operation. Crude oil dropped for a second day after Saudi Arabia told OPEC that it pumped a record 10.67 million barrels of oil a day,

Morgan Stanley Expects Oil To Hit $35 In A Few Weeks: Here's Why

Morgan Stanley's Adam Longson confirmed overnight that he isn't going to change his bearish oil call any time soon, with a warning that "very little has been addressed fundamentally to correct these problems. Greater headwinds lay ahead, especially for crude oil. In fact, we would argue that recent price action and developments may have exacerbated the situation." Putting a number to his call: oil will slide to $35 in the next 1-3 months.

Frontrunning: August 5

  • Expected solid job gains seen as boost to economy (Reuters)
  • Oil prices slip as short-covering rally fizzles (Reuters)
  • Hillary Clinton’s Lead Over Donald Trump Widens to 9 Points, Poll Shows (WSJ)
  • Justice Department Officials Raised Objections on U.S. Cash Payment to Iran (WSJ)
  • Terrorist Suspects in Europe Got Welfare Benefits While Plotting Attacks (WSJ)

Frontrunning: August 3

  • European bank rebound not enough to save world stocks from further losses (Reuters)
  • Republican rift widens as Trump declines to endorse Ryan, McCain (Reuters)
  • New Rough Patch for Trump Campaign Roils Republicans as Defections Grow (WSJ)
  • Obama says Trump unfit to be president (FT)
  • World’s Largest Oil Hedge Set to Make Billions for Mexican State (BBG)

Is War Inevitable In The South China Sea?

The indispensable nation’s military hegemony over the whole South China Sea must always be undisputed. Always. But already it is not. China is positioning itself as a cunning, asymmetrical aspirant to “peer competitor”. For the moment Beijing ranks second in the Pentagon’s list of “existential threats” to the US. Were not for Russia’s formidable nuclear power, China would already be number one. At the same time China does not need to launch any military offensive against an ASEAN member; it’s bad for business. But make no mistake; at some point in the future, there will be a serious confrontation between the US and China over “access" to the South China Sea.

Frontrunning: July 29

  • Yen, bond yields rise as Bank of Japan action underwhelms (Reuters); Bank of Japan Takes Modest Easing Action (WSJ)
  • Hong Kong shares end lower as BOJ disappointment sweeps Asia (Reuters)
  • Accepting White House nomination, Clinton offers 'clear-eyed' vision (Reuters)
  • Two Conventions, Two Distinct World Views (WSJ)
  • Democrats Emphasize American Exceptionalism at Convention (BBG)
  • Clinton’s Image Among Democrats at a Historic Low (WSJ)

Russia And China Will Hold Joint Naval Drills In Contested South China Sea

China and Russia will hold "routine" naval exercises in the South China Sea in September, China's Defence Ministry said on Thursday, adding that the drills were aimed at strengthening their cooperation. "This is a routine exercise between the two armed forces, aimed at strengthening the developing China-Russia strategic cooperative partnership," China's defense ministry said. It then added "The exercise is not directed against third parties", while trying to hold back laughter.

Dan Loeb Compares Managing Money In 2016 To A "Game Of Thrones" Slaughter

"Watching Jon Snow’s epic “Battle of the Bastards” scene in the penultimate episode of this season’s Game of Thrones gives investors a sense of how it has felt to manage money during some periods over the past year. Surging enemies forming a seemingly  impossible perimeter, a crush of fellow soldiers on the field, arrows coming in overhead..."