Natural Gas

Despite Lifting Of Export Ban, Moody's "Bombshell" Sparks Panic In Energy Credit Markets

The Senate and House passed the spending bill this week, which the President signed into law on the same day. Embedded in the law is a provision to lift the 40-year old crude export ban. The lifting of the crude export ban is a historic milestone, but seemingly less relevant for US E&Ps, Midstream and Oilfield Services as compared to a year and a half ago when WTI-Brent spreads were close to $9.00/bbl vs. the current spread of $0.80/bbl. Nevertheless, there is still a negative long-term impact on refiners should spreads re-widen.

Futures Slide As Quad-Witching Has A Violently Volatile Start After Massive BOJ FX Headfake; Oil Tumbles

Following the latest BOJ statement, the market found itself wrongfooted assuming the BOJ was actually launching another episode of easing, sending the USDJPY soaring, until suddenly the realization swept the market that not only was the incremental action not really material, but even Kuroda spoke shortly after the announcement, confirming that "today's decision wasn't additional easing." The result was one of the biggest FX headfakes in recent days, perhaps on par with that from December 4 when EUR shorts were crushed, as the biggest carry pair first soared then tumbled and since the Yen correlation drives so many risk assets, also pulled down not only Japanese stocks but US equity futures.

"Just Wait For The Bankruptcies" - The Latest Market That "Is In Real Trouble"

Natural-gas fell to the lowest ever inflation-adjusted price in its history of NYMEX trading on Wednesday as extremely warm weather continues to limit demand. As we recently explained, the glut in nattie is worse than that facing the crude complex, and while the glut in oil is expected to continue for the next year or so before balancing in late 2016, the pain for liquefied natural gas (LNG) could be just beginning. As one trader warned "this market is in real trouble...just wait for the bankruptcies."

European Nations Throw Up On EU Plan To Seize Border Sovereignty, Impose Standng Border Force

“Strengthening Frontex, creating a kind of border guard would by all means be needed, beneficial,” he said on his way into a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels. “But the way the commission proposed it—for it to be a structure independent from nation states—is astounding.” He added: “There’d be an undemocratic structure reporting to no one knows who.”

Frontrunning: December 15

  • Global stocks rise but oil, Fed keep investors nervous (Reuters)
  • Janet Yellen: An orthodox economist for unorthodox times (Reuters)
  • House Democrats Said to Be Open to Lifting Oil Export Ban (BBG)
  • Don't Count on an Oil Rally If U.S. Crude Export Ban Is Lifted (BBG)
  • Germany welcomes 34-state Islamic military alliance against terrorism (Reuters)
  • U.S. soldier Bergdahl may face life sentence in court-martial over desertion (Reuters)

Morons At The Precipice

Seven years of zero rates, massive monetary inflation and incessant market backstopping have desensitized and anesthetized. Rational thought ultimately succumbed to "perpetual money machine" quackery. And now all of this greatly increases vulnerability to destabilizing market dislocations, as senses are restored and nerves awakened. "A lot of this looks like late 2007 or early 2008," warns one manager, but today, market mispricing is systemic and global – virtually all securities classes at home and abroad.

Producer Prices Rises Most In Five Months, Service Inflation Highest In Over A Year

Following a miss in retail sales (if slight beat in core spending), the final key economic update the Fed will look at before its "first rate hike in nine years" meeting next week is today's Producer Price Inflation report which rose 0.3%, above the expected unchanged print and even higher compared to October's -0.4% decline. The report showed that while the decline in energy prices continued as expected, sliding 0.6% in the Final Demand Goods category, there was a surprising pickup in final demand services, which rebounded by 0.5% driven by Trade which rose 1.2% from the prior month, driven by an unexpected pickup in margins for apparel, jewelry, footwear, and accessories retailing.