Natural Gas

Texas Gold Repatriation Bill Has One Message To Feds: "Come And Take It"

"If the federal government were to try and do something like [confiscation], the reality is: There is a motto in the office of almost every state legislator in Texas, and it’s a flag that we have [from the Texas Revolution], it’s below a cannon and what the motto says is, 'Come and Take it.'"

PetroYuan Proliferation: Russia, China To Settle "Holy Grail" Pipeline Sales In Renminbi

Two critically important themes which have far-reaching geopolitical and economic consequences came together recently when it became apparent that Gazprom had begun settling all crude sales to China in yuan. This marked the intersection of yuan hegemony and the death of petrodollar mercantilism. Now, the trend continues as Russia and China will de-dollarize hundreds of millions in natural gas settlements.

Futures Rebound As Yellen's Market-Lifting Track Record Offsets Greek Gloom

With the Fed's June FOMC statement in just over 7 hours and a Yellen press conference to follow shortly, one in which nobody expects the Fed will announces its first rate-hiking cycle in nine years despite repeated clues by Yellen that not only is there froth in the market but that the Fed has no dry powder to contain the next crisis when it emerges (even though a rate hike will catalyze the next crisis), traders have chosen to ignore the chatter from Greece which is getting worse by the hour, and unlike recent days, have bought risk overnight based on one simple technical: of the five press conferences in ten Fed meetings held by Yellen as Chairman, the S&P finished higher 80% of the time.

Peak Oil: Myth Or Coming Reality?

In short, we have yet to see evidence that we are nearing a peak in oil production. On the contrary, agencies like EIA and IEA have predicted a stable increase in crude oil production for the next few years at least. But supplies may not be the only, or even the most important factor when analyzing the end of the oil era. The world is making progress at moving beyond oil. So instead of discussing Peak Oil in terms of supply, perhaps it is now more useful to analyze ‘Peak Demand’.

Don't Believe The Hype On U.S. Shale Growth

Rig counts went into free-fall after it became clear that OPEC was not interested in propping up the price of oil for the benefit of rapidly expanding shale oil producers. While that approach hurt OPEC’s income in the short term, it also immediately impacted rig counts in the shale oil fields. But - and here is the narrative - shale oil producers continue to make gains in production even as rig counts have been slashed because they are becoming more and more efficient.

European Stocks Slide, Greece Tumbles But US BTFDers Emerge After Collapse In Greek Bailout Talks

European shares remain lower, close to intraday lows, with the banks and autos sectors underperforming and food & beverage, retail outperforming. Tsipras hardens Greek stance after collapse of bailout talks. The Italian and Swedish markets are the worst-performing larger bourses, the U.K. the best. The euro is weaker against the dollar. Greek 10yr bond yields rise; Spanish yields increase. Commodities decline, with copper, nickel underperforming and natural gas outperforming. U.S. Empire manufacturing, net TIC flows, NAHB housing market index, industrial production, capacity  utilization due later.

Producer Prices Jump MoM Most Since Sept 2012 Driven By Higher Energy Costs

Producer Prices Final Demand rose 0.5% MoM - the biggest monthly rise since September 2012. With the gasoline index up a stunning 17% (but but but) 80% of the broad-based advance is attributable to prices for final demand energy - which increased 5.9%. In contrast, Final Demand PPI YoY Ex Food & Energy dropped to +0.6% - the lowest on record in the short time series.

Gazprom Seeks A Way Around Ukraine By 2019

Gazprom has vowed to entirely cut out Ukraine as a transit hub for natural gas exports to Europe. “We will not export gas via Ukraine after 2019. The customers will get gas at (newly) agreed delivery points,” Gazprom’s Deputy CEO Alexander Medvedev said on June 9.

Why EIA, IEA, And BP Oil Forecasts Are Too High

When forecasting how much oil will be available in future years, most agencies, including EIA, IEA and BP appear to adopt a similar 'work-backwards from GDPO growth expectations' method. It seems that this approach has a fundamental flaw. It doesn’t consider the possibility of continued low oil prices and the impact that these low oil prices are likely to have on future oil production. Hoped-for future GDP growth may not be possible if oil prices, as well as other commodity prices, remain low.

Crude Soars Despite Record Saudi Production, Lowest China Demand Growth Since 1998

If Inventories down, then buy oil at the fastest pace in 2 months. That appears to be the algo logic as talking heads additionally blame Saudi airstrikes on Yemen for the over 6% surge in WTI in the last 2 days. However, as crude nears $62 (6 month highs) once again, we note that not only Saudi oil production just hit a new record high, but US production hit a new cycle high last week (DOE data today), and this is happening as China's energy demand grows at the slowest pace since 1998.

Bond Rout Continues: Bunds Rise Above 1%; 30Y "Golden Crossed"; Kuroda Sends Yen Soaring

After a Chinese session which following the MSCI failure to include Chinese stocks in its EM index, if only for the time being, was largely a dud with Shanghai stocks actually dropping by 0.1% after a late day selloff, eyes turned to Europe, which once again did not disappoint and where the bond rout continued apace, with the 10Y Bund yield spiking just after the European open, and rising above 1.05%, the widest level since September 19, before recouping some losses and trading just around 1.00% at last check.

Busting The "Canadian Bakken" Myth

The financial pages of Canadian newspapers have been full of headlines lately announcing the potential of two large shale oil fields in the Northwest Territories said to contain enough oil to rival the Bakken Formation of North Dakota and Montana. While the report from the NEB does indeed point to a very large pool of potential shale oil, getting it out of the ground will be no small feat, especially at today's prices.

"One Belt, One Road" May Be China's 'One Chance' To Save Collapsing Economy

Hungary becomes the first European country to sign on for China's ambitious Silk Road initiative. Beijing hopes the program will serve to relieve the country's industrial overcapacity problem while facilitating a tough transition to a consumer-led economic model. Given the growing number of headwinds China faces, "One Belt, One Road" may represent the counrty's 'one chance' to rescue the flagging economy.

Germany Enters Correction; EMs In Longest Losing Streak Since 1990 Routed By Turkey, Obama Turmoils Dollar

While there were key macroeconomic data out of Asia earlier in the session, with Japan revising its Q1 GDP up from 2.4% to 3.9% (due to an upward revision to capex) making some wonder if it simply didn't snow in Japan this winter, as well as Chinese trade data that was once again disappointing with the third consecutive drop in exports coupled with an 18.1% collapse in imports hinting that nothing is going well in China's economy (which once again sent stocks soaring this time up another 2.2% on certainty another PBOC rate cut is imminent, pushing the PBOC to a fresh 7-year high of 5,132), it was actually a leaked Obama comment on the strong USD that moved markets.

De-Dollarization Du Jour: Russia's Largest Bank Issues Yuan-Denominated Guarantees

In yet another sign that Russia and China are set to work together to extricate themselves from a dependence on the dollar specifically and on Western financial institutions more generally, Russia’s largest bank has, for the first time, extended yuan-denominated letters of credit in concert with the Chinese Export-Import bank.