Natural Gas

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Why Hasn't The U.S. Gone After Gazprom?





Amidst the deepening war of words over Moscow’s annexation of Crimea, U.S. President Barack Obama on April 28 added more Russian individuals and companies to a sanctions list that already included influential members of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle and Bank Rossiya, which has close ties to the Russian leadership. The new list freezes the assets of Igor Sechin, head of Russia's major oil company, Rosneft, six other individuals and 17 companies. Significantly, the new U.S. list does not include Alexei Miller, CEO of the Russian natural gas state monopoly, Gazprom. Although the European Union has imposed its own tough sanctions on 48 Russian individuals, Gazprom is arguably where daylight exists between the Obama administration and the EU on the issue of penalizing Moscow for its actions in Ukraine. The numbers make it clear why...

 
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Frontrunning: May 5





  • Fed’s Fisher Says Economy Strengthening as Payrolls Rise (BBG)
  • Russia Knows Europe Sanctions Ineffective With Tax Havens (BBG)
  • EU Cuts Euro-Area Growth Outlook as Inflation Seen Slower (BBG)
  • U.S. Firms With Irish Addresses Get Tax Breaks Derided as ‘Blarney’ (BBG)
  • Portugal exits bailout without safety net of credit line (Euronews)
  • Puzzled Malaysian Air Searchers Ponder What to Try Now (BBG)
  • Barclays, Credit Suisse Battle Banker Exodus, Legal Woes (BBG)
  • Germany says euro level not an issue for politicians (Reuters)
  • Alibaba-Sized Hole Blown in Nasdaq 100 Amid New Stock (BBG)
  • Obamacare to save large corporations hundreds of billions (The Hill)
 
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Warning: Ukraine Is At A Flashpoint





As tensions between all parties in Eastern Europe boil over, Chris Martenson provides a brief tour through just some of the antics surrounding the US' involvement in bringing about change (you can believe in!) in Ukraine. We raise these items to counter the usual clutter and complete lack of context being provided in the US press and to illustrate that the US is already in pretty deep and therefore unlikely to back down now. Before we move on, do you not find it at all strange that the US media, usually extremely sensitive to anti-semitism, has given the McCain and Nuland support of the Svoboda party a complete pass? I find it to be like the case of "the dog that did not bark", meaning the silence reveals a very fickle moral compass at the heart of the western press. The demonization of Putin as the bad guy here is near complete in western media. But there’s plenty of mischief all around and, as usual, the US finds itself with some pretty strange bedfellows as it seeks an outcome it likes.

 
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"We Are Essentially At War" Ukraine Admits, After Dozens Killed





While there may be some confusion about why massive bond buying greeted yesterday's "better than expected" loss of 209 jobs in the 25-54 age group, dragging stocks down, the answer is actually very simple: there is a war in the Ukraine.

 
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China, Russia Military Ties Deepen With Naval Drill In East China Sea





The joint naval drill is another example of the growing military, economic and political ties between China and Russia.

 
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Frontrunning: May 2





  • Ukraine attacks rebel city, helicopter shot down (Reuters)
  • Euro Unemployment Holds Near Record Amid Factory Gains (BBG)
  • Yellen’s Fed Resigned to Diminished Growth Expectations (BBG)
  • Junket Figure's Disappearance Shakes Macau's Gambling Industry (WSJ)
  • China tried to undermine economic report showing its ascendancy (WSJ)
  • Liquidity Trap Hitting AAA Bonds Has ATP CEO Sounding Alarm (BBG)
  • AstraZeneca Snubs Pfizer Approach That U.K. Won’t Block (BBG)
  • Missing Jet Recordings May Have Been 'Edited' (NBC)
  • RBS turns corner as first-quarter profit trebles (Reuters)
  • Japan household spending hits four-decade high, wages key to outlook (RTRS) while Real Incomes Drop 3.3% in March, 6th straight decline
 
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Futures Lethargic With Overnight Ramp As Half The World Takes Day Off





It is May Day, which means half the world - the half where welfare contributions to one's standard of living are off the charts - celebrate labor, or rather the lack thereof, by taking a day off. Which means virtually all of Europe is closed, as are Eurex and Euronext futures, and most European markets expect the UK. In light of the non-existent volume, futures are relatively unchanged despite the latest Chinese Mfg PMI disappointment (50.4, below the 50.5, expected but just above the prior print of 50.3), and of course yesterday's US GDP debacle which helped push the DJIA to a record high. The good news is that with volume even more miserable than usual, the few momentum ignition algos that are operating will have a field day with the now standard low-volume levitation that happens like clockwork if the news is bad, and also happens just in case if the news is bad.

 
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Inside The "Low-flation" Myth: A Disquisition On Inflation Seen And Not Seen - Part 1





Simply put, there is overwhelming evidence of inflation during the decade long era in which the central bankers have been braying about “deflation”. What is more worrisome, David Stockman presents some startling evidence of the complicity of the government statistical mills in using the inflation that is not seen (i.e. “imputed”) to dilute and obscure the inflation that is seen (i.e. utility bills).

 
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IMF Approves Loan (To Pay Ukraine's Gazprom Bill): Putin 1 - 0 IMF





After 'billing' Ukraine this morning, Gazprom must be jubilant this evening as news exudes from Washington that...

  • *IMF APPROVES UKRAINE LOAN OF $17 BLN OVER TWO YEARS
  • *UKRAINE EXPECTS FIRST TRANCHE OF IMF AID MAY 5-MAY 8: FIN MIN

But,

  • *IMF SAYS IMMEDIATE UKRAINE LOAN DISBURSEMENT TO BE $3.2 BLN

So that won't even cover the $3.49bn they already owe to Gazprom? (In fact, $2.2bn is approved for dissemination to Gazprom)

 
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The Quest To Freeze "Putin's Billions"





For years, the suspicion that Mr. Putin has a secret fortune has intrigued scholars, industry analysts, opposition figures, journalists and intelligence agencies but defied their efforts to uncover it. Numbers are thrown around suggesting that Putin may control $40 billion or even $70 billion, in theory making him not only the richest head of state in world history but possibly the richest man alive in the world today, period. Now, the quest to track down, and isolate, Putin's billions launches in earnest.

 
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Gazprom Delighted By China Announcement Nat Gas Need To Soar By 150% In 6 Years





It may comes as a surprise to many, if certainly not the country known as Gazpromia, that according to a government statement released on Wednesday, China will raise its natural gas supply to a whopping 420 ­billion cubic meters per year by 2020 on soaring demand due to urbanization, a government statement said on Wednesday. This compares roughly 168 bcm in gas used in 2013, which means somehow China hopes to boost gas production by over 150% in just 6 years.

 
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Eight Energy Myths Explained





Republicans, Democrats, and environmentalists all have favorite energy myths. Even Peak Oil believers have favorite energy myths. The following are a few common mis-beliefs, coming from a variety of energy perspectives. From to "The fact that oil producers are talking about wanting to export crude oil means that the US has more than enough crude oil for its own needs" to "the unlimited supply of renewables", the following 'facts' may just be a little too much for some to bear

 
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"Riders On The Storm:" A Fictional Letter Explaining What Is Going On In Russia





Dear Gennady, ...So you see, Gennady, we are actually quite prepared to see the stock market crash, to see all the stock markets in the world crash, and the yields on our dollar bonds rise to whatever level. We are prepared for much worse things... The inevitable economic setback may result in some political opposition within Russia itself, but in the context of an escalating confrontation with Europe it shouldn’t be too difficult to cope with.... I hope that makes things a little clearer. Yes, it is a risky strategy, but a Europe dominated by Russia, or at least detached from the United States and disunited, is a prize worth risking everything for. Beppo is worth a crash.... Think about what I’ve said – some of it may come as a shock, but in the end, I think you’ll agree that it’s actually good news that the long tense period of waiting is finally over. We can’t win a conventional or a nuclear conflict, but this plan really might succeed. If not, well, we Russians are used to overcoming adversity.. Your Friend, Sasha

 
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A Summary Of What Hedge Funds Are Buying And Selling





Large speculators reduced ther S&P 500 positioning to net short this week and their NASDAQ longs to a one-year low as BofAML reports on CFTC data. Macros funds decreased their long exposure to S&P500 and NASDAQ to now hold short exposure. They also decreased their long exposure to US Dollar (raising their AUD longs to a record high) and maintained their long exposure to 10-year Treasuries. They decreased their long exposure to commodities and increased their long exposure to EM. Across all asset classes, positioning is at extremes.

 
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