Natural Gas

Is This The Rationale Behind Russia's Withdrawal From Syria?

The timing of the Russian withdrawal could not be more fortuitous, as it occurs at the very pinnacle of the European refugee crisis, a crisis that was caused by Europe’s backing of the Saudi-Turkish attempt to overthrow Assad. Is Russia gambling on receiving some modicum of European gratitude for helping to stem the flight of refugees to its borders, with the pay-off in terms of easing sanction and enabling its long stalled pipeline projects to be completed.

Frontrunning: March 17

  • Global Stocks Slip Following Fed’s Cautious Tone (WSJ)
  • Oil rallies towards $41, near 2016 high, on producer meeting (Reuters)
  • Hamptons luxury home sales soften as Wall Street weakness takes a toll (Reuters)
  • Obama picks centrist high court nominee; Republicans unmoved (Reuters)
  • Allies See Challenges for Hillary Clinton in a General Election Campaign (WSJ)

Energy Wars Of Attrition - The Irony Of Oil Abundance

In the end, the oil attrition wars may lead us not into a future of North American triumphalism, nor even to a more modest Saudi version of the same, but into a strange new world in which an unlimited capacity to produce oil meets an increasingly crippled capitalist system without the capacity to absorb it. Think of it this way: in the conflagration of the take-no-prisoners war the Saudis let loose, a centuries-old world based on oil may be ending in both a glut and a hollowing out on an increasingly overheated planet. A war of attrition indeed.

China Exports Most Deflation To US Since 2010

For the 18th month in a row, US Import prices fell YoY (down 6.1% vs expectations of a 6.5% drop). This is the longest deflationary streak since 1999. Under the hood we see the first first rise in prices (ex food, fuel) since May 2014. Fuel price dropped 3.9% - the 8th consecutive drop - and foreign food product prices dropped 2% - the most since Feb 2012.  Perhaps most crucially, China's forced deflationary wave continues to build with the index at its lowest since 2010.

Frontrunning: March 11

  • Shares bounce, euro fades after savage ECB reaction (Reuters)
  • Trump's Islam comments draw attacks as Republicans discover civility (Reuters)
  • Oil Prices Rise on Hopes Glut Will Ease (WSJ)
  • IEA Says Oil Price May Have Bottomed as High-Cost Producers Cut (BBG)
  • Why Euro-Area Inflation Will Be Low for Years, According to Draghi (BBG)
  • Calmer markets, positive data prime Fed to push ahead with rate rises (Reuters)

Chevron Protects Dividend, Slashes Another 36% Off Spending

The supermajors might be protecting their dividends, but they are also risking lower long-term oil production. For now, that is a problem for another day. Referring to his company’s first negative reserve-replacement ratio in 12 years, Shell’s CFO said in February: "While we're not entirely comfortable with a negative number, it's not the most important thing today.”

Frontrunning: March 4

  • Rivals rip Trump but promise support if he is the nominee (Reuters)
  • Employment gains seen accelerating in February (Reuters)
  • Brazil's Lula Targeted in Police Raid Into Corruption Scandal (BBG)
  • Economist: For The ECB, It's No Longer About Oil (BBG)
  • China's premier says economy faces greater difficulties in 2016 (Reuters)
  • Copper Stockpiles in China Surge to Record as Metal Flows East (BBG)

Frontrunning: March 3

  • Global stocks, oil dip, but markets calm down as growth fears ease (Reuters)
  • Greece cannot carry migrant burden on its own: PM Tsipras (Reuters)
  • New Migrant Crisis Flares in Greece (WSJ)
  • Qatar's BeIn Media buys U.S. film studio Miramax (Reuters)
  • Nanny who beheaded Russian girl cites revenge for Putin's Syria strikes (Reuters)

Chesapeake Founder Aubrey McClendon Dies In Car Crash One Day After Federal Indictment

Just one day after the DOJ unveiled its had indicted Chesapeake Founder and former CEO Aubrey McClendon on federal charges of conspiring to rig bids for oil and natural gas leases, moments ago the Oklahoma Police announced that he was found dead in a car accident, when while traveling in a 2013 Chevy Tahoe at a high rate of speed he crashed while driving on a two-lane highway and was engulfed in flames.

Why Globalization Reaches Limits

We have been living in a world of rapid globalization, but this is not a condition that we can expect to continue indefinitely.

Frontrunning: March 2

  • Trump, Clinton capture key wins on Super Tuesday (Reuters)
  • Hillary Clinton Triumphs in Delegate-Rich Super Tuesday States (WSJ)
  • S&P 500 Futures Follow Oil Lower, Erase Gain After Super Tuesday (BBG)
  • Oil below $37 as U.S. inventory rise counters output freeze plan (Reuters)
  • Wall Street's big short: President Donald J. Trump (Reuters)
  • Ex-Chesapeake CEO McClendon Indicted Over Lease Bid Rigging (BBG)

This Is The Reason For Today's Nat Gas Surge

"On Tuesday, March 1, 2016, Rockies Express Pipeline LLC (“REX”) experienced an operational interruption at its mainline on Segment 390 in Monroe County, Ohio. REX is currently mobilizing repair crews however a return to service date is unknown at this time. REX will post updates as additional information becomes available. Accordingly, REX is declaring a Force Majeure situation..."