Natural Gas

As part of his UN speech seeking to restore a crumbling Pax Americana, president Obama, eager to cover up US involvement in the Ukraine presidential coup of early 2014 (who can forget Victoria Nuland "strategy" interception in which she laid out the post-coup lay of the land, while saying to "fuck the EU"), just said that "America has few economic interest in Ukraine." Few, perhaps, but quite substantial.

We have been warning for months that high-yield bonds have decoupled from equity markets, just as they did in 2007/8, and the credit cycle's turning will inevitably flow through to crush the only thing left supporting stock valuations - the irrational non-economic corporate buyback-er. However, as we detail below, time's running out and it’s getting tougher out there for our QE and ZIRP-coddled corporate junk-bond heroes.

"It’s like a pig on LSD. You don’t know which way it’s going to run"...

• Global Stocks Steady Despite China Slowdown (WSJ)
• European Recovery Saves Markets From China Gloom as Stocks Rally (BBG)
• Pope starts U.S. trip with tone of conciliation (Reuters)
• FBI Said to Recover Personal E-Mails From Hillary Clinton Server (BBG)
• Volkswagen chief faces grilling by board over diesel scandal (Reuters)
• 'European Detroit' Fear Grips VW Company Town as Scandal Widens (BBG)
• Berlin finds itself caught up in Volkswagen scandal (FT)

“We assume [the Russian buildup in Syria is] being coordinated with the Iranians. What we are seeing now is that there is some sort of Iran nexus."

• Pressure builds on Volkswagen CEO as emissions-cheating probe spreads (Reuters)
• Volkswagen Emissions Scandal Relates to 11 Million Cars (WSJ)
• Volkswagen Emissions Investigations Should Widen to Entire Auto Industry, Officials Say (WSJ)
• Germany's Bosch makes VW's U.S. diesel components (Reuters)
• Volkswagen scandal will have personnel consequences - state economy minister (Reuters)
• Glencore Falls to Record as Mining Shares Lead Stock Losses (BBG)
• Despite Slump, China’s Xi Jinping Pledges Economic Reforms (WSJ)

With both Russia and Iran seemingly prepared to do what's necessary to ensure Bashar al-Assad isn't toppled in Syria, John Kerry admits that the US strategy of brining about regime change in Damascus is now in serious jeopardy. Speaking from London on Saturday, Kerry attempted to hang on to the “Assad must go” narrative, but in what might fairly be described as the most conciliatory language yet, Washington’s top diplomat essentially admitted that the timetable for Assad’s exit is now completely indeterminate. Meanwhile, Moscow and Tehran are set to hash out Syria's future seemingly without any input from the Americans.

"If you are worried about them, stop supporting terrorists. Can you feel sad for a child's death in the sea and not for thousands of children who have been killed by the terrorists in Syria?"

As the final inflation data before the FOMC decision, some have argued that this print matters most as an excuse to stay in 'emergency mode' - perhaps they are right. Consumer Prices dropped 0.1% (as expected) in August - this is the first 'deflation' since January - great news for consumers. Gasoline and airline tickets saw the biggest drops dragging down YoY CPI but The Fed will shrug its "transitory" shoulders but ex-food-and-energy did miss expectations, rising 1.8% YoY (against 1.9% exp). Notably food prices rose 0.2% in August, driven by a surge in egg prices. So WWJYD?

"Countries need to put aside geopolitical ambitions [and] direct or indirect use of terrorist groups to achieve goals that include regime change, in order to counter the threat of Islamic State. Elementary common sense responsibility for global and regional security demands the collective effort of the international community."

They say that the first casualty of war is truth. And, on both sides of the fight over lifting the ban on exports of U.S. crude oil, the truth has already fallen into a coma. The ban was instituted in 1975 in order to make America less subject to swings in international oil supply after suffering the price shock associated with the Arab oil embargo in 1973. Last week a committee in the U.S. House of Representatives voted to end the ban after a Senate committee voted in July to do the same. A vote by the full House and Senate could be near.

Despite the attention-grabbing economic volatility that is dominating headlines, it's important to keep our eye on the energy story firmly in focus. This is especially true as the headlines we regularly read about Peak Oil being dead " are "manifestly false" according to petroleum geologist Jeffrey Brown. As concerning as the fact that global oil production has plateaued over the past decade, despite trillions invested in trying to goose it higher, are Brown's forecasting model for oil exports. His Export Land Model shows how rising internal consumption can swing (and has swung) countries from major exporters to permanent importers within a dizzyingly short period of time.

"You can’t talk for months about how to stabilize the situation and then take a decision that puts Ukraine and Slovakia into an unenviable situation."

While still well below Fed mandated levels, the 0.9% year-over-year rise in PPI Final Demand ex Food & Energy is the hottest since March and notably above expectations. While the headline PPI Final Demand YoY has not risen for 8 months, surging prices for chicken eggs (+23%) and apparel (+7%) in August made up a considerable part of the inflation index move and bond yields and stocks are leaking lower on the news ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.

The latest twist in what we have been warning for months has the makings of the biggest proxy shooting war in years, one that will come as a major humiliation to the Obama administration, today we find out that none other than America's most recent diplomatic sweetheart in the Gulf region, Iran, has deployed ground soldiers into Syria in the past few days in cooperation with Russia's President Vladimir Putin.