Neo-Keynesian

Gold Money's picture

The Inflation Tipping-Point





The increasingly obvious trend reversal in inflation, amid softening growth, indicates the long predicted arrival of stagflation. While not unexpected, this is likely to propel the gold price higher.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Inevitability Of Unintended Consequences





Why central planning efforts will ultimately backfire - Anyone involved with managing projects, people or systems knows that the only thing that can be planned with absolute certainty is that things will never go 100% according to plan. History is full of examples where governments' best-laid plans failed in spectacular fashion, exacerbating the very problems they were intending to solve. Here are a few of our favorites...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

According To Deutsche Bank, The "Worst Kind Of Recession" May Have Already Started





According to Deutsche Bank the worst kind of a recession, an "endogenous one" in which labor demand plunges as "corporations are not just tired of negative profit growth, but also because they are drawing a line in the sand from the perspective of defending margins" may be imminent... or is already here because based on "payroll reports like last week’s suggest it could be around here."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Silver Linings: Keynesian Central Banking Is Heading For A Massive Repudiation





Inflation targeting has been a giant cover story for a monumental power grab. The academics who grabbed the power had no idea what they were doing in the financial markets that they have now saturated with financial time bombs. When these FEDs (financial explosive devices) erupt in the months and years ahead, the central bankers will face a day of reckoning. And they will surely be found wanting. The immense social damage from the imploding bubbles dead ahead will be squarely on them.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Race To Bottom Enters Final Lap: ECB Will Cut To -0.7% In June, JPM Predicts





We now expect the March package to include a larger deposit rate cut of 20bp, taking it to -0.5%
We now expect another package after that, possibly as early as June
We expect this second package to take the deposit rate to -0.7% and to extent QE until end-2017
Our forecast change is motivated by risk management amidst low inflation, rather than a macro forecast change

 
Tyler Durden's picture

46 Months Of Accelerating Deflation Mean Beijing Is Now Trapped





At this point, the longer China does nothing, the greater its problems will become. As such Beijing needs to choose: either collapse the economy in a deflationary wave, leading to a debt crisis and widespread social unrest, or devalue massively overnight in hopes of stimulating inflation, leading to collapsing profit margins, and even more widespread social unrest.In short, our condolences China: having decided to adopt Western neo-Keynesian economics, with the typical monetarist bent, you too are now trapped with no way out. But don't worry: so is everyone else. Good luck.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

From $500,000 To $170 Million In A Few Months: The Next "Subprime Trade" Emerges





Ever since it started making complicated bets against some leveraged ETFs, Miller’s Catalyst Macro Strategies Funds has since grown from $500,000 in assets at the start of the year to about $170 million. It achieved a more than 50 percent return this year, placing it far ahead of its competitors.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Everything Central Banks Have Tried Has Failed: According To Citi's Buiter Just One Thing Remains





"If, as seems possible, the ECB will increase, in H1 2016, the scale of its monthly asset purchases from €60bn to, say, €75bn, and if these additional purchases are concentrated on public debt, the euro area will benefit from a ‘backdoor’ helicopter money drop –something long overdue."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Economic" Advice To The President (Laissez-Faire Austrian Vs. Anti-Market Keynesian)





Dear Mr. President, your country faces a stagnating economy... The truth is it is too late for our politicians to act, because the speculative peak that precedes the crisis is already upon us.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Japan's Problems Will Not Be Solved By More QE, RBS Warns





"Japan’s experience suggests that QE has its limits, and could bring a range of side effects. These include years of tepid growth, the reduction in secondary trading liquidity, an increase in asset ownership by central banks (the BoJ now owns half of the national ETF market), potential formation of asset bubbles and social problems like inequality."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Stocks Jump On Hope For More Central Bank Intervention After Japan's Quintuple Recession, Syrian Strikes





As so often happens in these upside down days, was the best thing that could happen to the market, because another economic slowdown means the BOJ, even without sellers of JGBs, will have no choice but to expand its "stimulus" program (the same one that led Japan to its current predicament of course) and buy up if not government bonds, then corporate bonds, more ETFs (of which it already own 50%) and ultimately stocks. Because there is nothing better for the richest asset owners than total economic collapse.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Futures Soar Into The Green On Furious USDJPY Ramp





Last night, after Japan's quintuple recession, we had a simple question: "How is the BOJ not buying every USDJPY on this ridiculous news?" We only had a to wait a few hours...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Truth Arrives: JPM Slams ZIRP - "It Has Been Impeding Rather Than Promoting Economic Recovery"





"zero interest rate policy actually reduces demand in the economy, prompting the Federal Reserve to prescribe even further doses of a medicine that, for a long time, has been impeding rather than promoting economic recovery."

- JPM's David Kelly

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Problem Explained In 110 Words





"...declining velocity of money requires an ever rising level of monetary stimulus, which further depresses velocity of money, and requiring even further QEs. Also as countries compete in a diminishing pool by discounting currencies, global demand compresses, as current account surpluses in these countries rise not because of exports growing faster than imports but because imports decline faster than exports. This implies less demand for the global economy."

 
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