Dutch lawmakers have voted to ban weapons exports to Saudi Arabia over the kingdom’s violations of humanitarian law, making the Netherlands the first country in the European Union (EU) to follow through on a motion by the European Parliament in February. The landmark bill cites UN figures that Saudi-led troops has killed nearly 6,000 people in Yemen - half of them civilians.
What are the “top trumps” that could send bond, credit and equity markets substantially higher or lower than currently expected? Here are the six "positioning, policy and profits" indicators that will determine the next leg in the market.
Any project attempting to fuse these disparate cultures into one monolithic state over the course of just 70 years was by its very nature doomed. It would inevitably encounter insurmountable levels of nationalistic resistance, and eventually the project would stall. That is the point at which we now find ourselves.
The U.S. Census Bureau recently released its data on U.S. trade in goods by selected countries and world region for 2015. Based on the data, the U.S. exported over $1.5 trillion and imported over $2.2 trillion in goods throughout 2015. This leaves leaves the U.S. with a negative balance of $735 billion! So the next time someone comes on TV and proclaims that the collapse in world trade volumes is irrelevant to the US equity market and US economy... perhaps point them in this direction.
Around 40% or people who would respond to negative rates said that they would hoard cash. The risk is that this negative sentiment will infect the real economy, serving to depress spending. If so, the danger is that NIRP will have an impact on economic growth that is not merely non-linear, but perversely negative.
One question now dominates the global macro discussion: has subdued global growth and trade become the norm in the post-crisis world? That is, have lackluster growth and trade become structural and endemic rather than transient and cyclical? Spoiler alert: Yes.
For the first time since March 2009, GBPUSD is back below 1.40. Despite Camron's "Project Fear" and desperate attempts to spin British opinion (2 different polls yesterday showed 37% want to leave and 51% want to leave), investors are growing increasingly concerned as Nigel Farage exposes the ugly truths about Cameron's so-called "deal and FX and credit markets spike to extreme relative risk levels.