Citi Is Stunned How Quickly The "Extraordinary Political Backdrop" Is Deteriorating

"These developments point to a marked increase in political risks in systemically-significant countries. At the start of the year, we flagged many of these as  well as introducing our thesis that rising Geopolitical Risks, accompanied by rising "Vox Populi" risks such as Brexit and changing US politics, were at risk of converging in new and powerful ways. Even so, we did not anticipate quite how many would transpire, let alone within such a compressed timeframe."

Frontrunning: July 13

  • Brexit, what Brexit? Shares near 2016 highs (Reuters), Global Stocks Inch Higher (WSJ), Stocks Climb With Copper as Brexit-Induced Volatility Subsides (BBG)
  • Yen under pressure as global stock markets rally (Reuters)
  • Spanish Banks Surge as Fears Subside Over EU Mortgage Ruling (BBG)
  • Pimco Loads Up on Treasuries as Gundlach to Gross Voice Caution (BBG)
  • U.S. Presses China to Be Responsible Power After Sea Ruling (BBG)

Who's Most Afraid Of Contagion From Italy's Bank Meltdown?

Contagion is the reason Italy’s banking crisis is all of a sudden Europe’s biggest existential threat. Greece’s intractable problems are out of sight, out of mind; Brexit momentarily spooked investors and bankers; but Italy’s banking woes have the potential to wipe out investors and undo over 60 years of supranational state-building in Europe.

Here's How Much Europe Depends On The UK

As the following charts show, Europe can’t afford a break-up with Britain. The EU and Britain, therefore, are likely to reach a trade deal and maintain close economic and military ties despite the Brexit vote.

Beautiful Brexit & The Five Stages Of Grief

The post-Brexit ‘conversation’ in Britain is taking on grotesque proportions. Nobody seems to know how to react, at least not in a rational manner. They all look to be stuck in phase one of Kübler Ross’s Five Stages of Grief, i.e. Denial. Phase two is supposed to be Anger, and while there’s plenty of that, the shape it takes makes one think Angry Denial, instead of a progression between phases. That is to say, I don’t think I’ve seen one voice expressing anger at themselves. It’s all somebody else’s fault. And it just keeps going.

"Incredibly Stupid" Juncker Opens Pandora's Box

Someone who’s not known to be overly bothered by accountability or integrity is everybody’s favorite wino, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. But Juncker, whatever else may be wrong with him, is not a stupid man. And unless I’m gravely mistaken, he has just saddled the European Union with a problem that could well trigger its undoing.

"We've Never Had A Shock To The System Like This" - Global Selloff Accelerates On Brexit, Italy, "Unknown" Fears

The flight to safety following last week's quarter-end window dressing is accelerating, with constant news and flashing red headlines of record low yields across DM government bonds once the norm, and as of moments ago Denmark's 10Y bonds joined the exclusive club of sub-zero yields; gold has soared to fresh multi-year highs above $1,370, the risk-off currency, the Yen, soaring and sending the USDJPY just above 100, while sterling crashed overnight once again below 1.27, levels not seen since 1985.

Not 'The Onion' - Why Elections Are Bad For Democracy

"Elections are the fossil fuel of politics. Whereas once they gave democracy a huge boost, much as oil did for our economies, it now turns out they cause colossal problems of their own. If we don’t urgently reconsider the nature of our democratic fuel, a systemic crisis awaits. If we obstinately hold on to a notion of democracy that reduces its meaning to voting in elections and referendums, at a time of economic malaise, we will undermine the democratic process."

The Prison Of Peoples - France's Le Pen Calls For European 'Spring'

"Brexit may not have been the first cry of hope, but it may be the people’s first real victory." The globalists are the Nazis of the 30s and 40s and the Communists of the Cold War. They are the enemy of Man. As Le Pen aptly notes, "more and more, the destiny of the European Union resembles the destiny of the Soviet Union, which died from its own contradictions."

The Accusations Begin: David Cameron Blames Brexit On Merkel And EU "Immigration Failure"

David Cameron told European leaders he lost the EU referendum because they failed to address public concerns over immigration, as tensions rose ahead of looming Brexit negotiations. The British PM said that fears of mass immigration were "a driving factor" behind the vote and free movement would have to be addressed in Brexit talks. He was mostly referring to Angela Merkel who blocked British demands before the referendum for an "emergency brake" on migrant numbers.