Netherlands

Bond Bears Bewildered - The Case For US Treasuries

While conventional wisdom suggests that US government bond yields have nowhere to go but up, we believe the economic fundamentals will continue to weigh on interest rates for the foreseeable future.

"The European Project Was Always Bound To Fail" - Europe Without The Union

Any project attempting to fuse these disparate cultures into one monolithic state over the course of just 70 years was by its very nature doomed. It would inevitably encounter insurmountable levels of nationalistic resistance, and eventually the project would stall. That is the point at which we now find ourselves.

Visualising America's "Irrelevant" Exports & Imports

The U.S. Census Bureau recently released its data on U.S. trade in goods by selected countries and world region for 2015. Based on the data, the U.S. exported over $1.5 trillion and imported over $2.2 trillion in goods throughout 2015. This leaves leaves the U.S. with a negative balance of $735 billion! So the next time someone comes on TV and proclaims that the collapse in world trade volumes is irrelevant to the US equity market and US economy... perhaps point them in this direction.

What Savers Do Under NIRP - The "Perversely Negative" Impact Of Going Negative

Around 40% or people who would respond to negative rates said that they would hoard cash. The risk is that this negative sentiment will infect the real economy, serving to depress spending. If so, the danger is that NIRP will have an impact on economic growth that is not merely non-linear, but perversely negative.

World Trade Collapses Most Since Crisis

One question now dominates the global macro discussion: has subdued global growth and trade become the norm in the post-crisis world? That is, have lackluster growth and trade become structural and endemic rather than transient and cyclical? Spoiler alert: Yes.

Cable Crashes Below 1.40 For First Time In 7 Years, Brexit Risks Soar As Farage Crushes Cameron

For the first time since March 2009, GBPUSD is back below 1.40. Despite Camron's "Project Fear" and desperate attempts to spin British opinion (2 different polls yesterday showed 37% want to leave and 51% want to leave), investors are growing increasingly concerned as Nigel Farage exposes the ugly truths about Cameron's so-called "deal and FX and credit markets spike to extreme relative risk levels.

Frontrunning: February 17

  • Futures rise as oil gains hold steady (Reuters)
  • China promises economic stability as G20, parliament loom (Reuters)
  • Obama scolds Senate Republicans for Supreme Court threat (Reuters)
  • China Deploys Missiles on Disputed South China Sea Island (WSJ)
  • China Ramps Up Rhetoric, Plans New Steps to Juice Up Economy (BBG)
  • China Loses Control of the Economic Story Line (WSJ)

Frontrunning: February 16

  • Oil eases off highs after output freeze agreement (Reuters)
  • Saudis and Russia agree to oil output freeze, Iran still an obstacle (Reuters)
  • China Loses Control of the Economic Story Line (WSJ)
  • Obama starts work to pick Supreme Court justice amid political 'bluster' (Reuters)
  • The Never-Ending Story: Europe’s Banks Face a Frightening Future (BBG)
  • Apollo Global to buy security services company ADT for $7 billion (Reuters)

Frontrunning: February 11

  • Gold Roars to One-Year High as Turmoil Drives Safe Haven Demand (BBG)
  • Banking Stocks Pummeled in Europe (WSJ)
  • Dollar, stocks plunge sparks scramble for safety (Reuters)
  • Nymex Crude Slips Below $27 a Barrel (WSJ)
  • No Respite for S&P 500 as U.S. Stock Futures Join Global Selloff (BBG)

Facebook's War On Freedom Of Speech

In lieu of violence, speech is one of the best ways for people to vent their feelings and frustrations. Remove the right to speak about your frustrations and only violence is left.

How Billionaires Are Investing In 2016: "The Only Winning Move Is Not To Play The Game"

"The world’s central banks can’t save us anymore." That was the message from some of the world’s most prominent investors at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Friday. Each was resistant to putting on fresh positions and expected asset prices to head downward. In short, they say, the only winning move is not to play the game. “The trade now is to hold as much cash as possible,” said Nikhil Srinivasan, chief investment officer for Generali, a European insurer with $480 billion in assets. “Equity markets could go down 15% to 20%.”