Netherlands

European Politicians Terrified By "Horror Scenario" After Brexit, Trump

In the aftermath of Brexit and Trump, a European populist tsunami that seemed outlandish a few months ago is becoming reality, and the consequences for Europe's own political landscape are potentially huge. It is, as one European politican called it, a "horror scenario" and it is slowly coming true.

Europe's New 'Blasphemy Courts' Exposed

Europe is currently seeing the reintroduction of blasphemy laws through both the front and back doors, initiated in a country which once prided itself on being among the first in the world to throw off clerical intrusion into politics.

Citi: "A Clinton Presidency Will Be Marked By Near-Continuous Investigations, Impeachment Risk"

"Mr Trump ‎may be heading for defeat but the prevalence of low trust, identity politics and demographic divides across the developed world suggests that he will not be the last non-mainstream candidate to come close to power.  Moreover, a Clinton presidency is highly likely to be marked by near-continuous investigations as well as the risk of impeachment." - Citi

Italy Seen More Likely To Exit Eurozone Than Greece; Italian Bond Yields Surge

In an unexpected reversal of (mis)fortune, this morning Sentix writes that the Eurocrisis creeps back into the heads of the investors in a new way: it is no longer Greece, but Italy which is now the country that is most likely to leave the Eurozone within the year from the perspective of the more than 1,000 investors surveyed. "This development underscores the importance of the referendum to the Constitution in Italy on December, 4th."

The Mayor Of London: "My Side" Versus Reality

Taken as a whole, Mayor Khan's presentation to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs on "The Breakdown of Social Integration – The Challenge of Our Age," seemed to ignore unpleasant facts which suggest that there is more incompatibility of values than he is willing to admit -- in the interest of pushing an immigration agenda favored by his "side." Mayor Khan's presentation seemed designed to pacify Westerners and enable the spread of the rule of Islam.

RBC: "That Is VaR Crushing DV01 Destruction At Its Finest"

The absolute focus overnight / today is “core” macro though, as global developed market rates are being re-priced “risk manager style,” particularly with EGBs under MAJOR pressure as the buyside is caught wrong-footed (as I type, Slovak 10Y +7.2bps, Denmark 30Y +9.4bps, Netherlands 30Y +9.9bps, Finland 30Y +10.1bps, German 30Y +9.9bps, Austria 30Y +9.3bps…and even front-end seeing outsized moves with the Belgian 2Y +2.2bps).  That is VaR crushing DV01 destruction at its finest. 

Duterte Visit To China: Obama's Pivot Has Failed

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte arrived in China to meet with Chinese Premier Xi Xinping. Duterte has become a very controversial figure in Asian politics as he has publicly excoriated U.S. President Barack Obama’s treatment of him and his country. Duterte's trip to China this week is very bad news for Clinton and Obama and it is very likely that the Asian Pivot policy will unravel in short order.

Swedish Prosecutor Rules Islamic State Flag Is Legal: "It Expresses Contempt For All Others"

A Swedish prosecutor has ruled that the ISIS flag does not constitute hate speech and is therefore legal under Swedish law. Prosecutor Gisela Sjövall announced last week that she would not prosecute a 23-year-old man who had posted the black ISIS flag on his Facebook page in June. "Put simply, one can say that he is expressing contempt for “all others”, and not against a specific ethnic group."

Frontrunning: October 11

  • Samsung scraps Note 7 (Reuters)
  • Note 7 fiasco could burn a $17 billion hole in Samsung accounts (Reuters)
  • Trump's struggles may depress Democratic voter turnout (Reuters)
  • Major Investor Sues Theranos  (WSJ)
  • S. Africa’s Gordhan to Be Charged; Rand Plunges Most Since June (BBG)
  • Oil price falls back from one-year highs, hit by OPEC deal concerns (Reuters)