New Normal

Many recent commentaries have noted a distinct devolution in the numerical lies which the U.S. government calls its “economic statistics”. Numbers which used to be mere exaggerations (i.e. used to somewhat mirror the real world) have now become literally perverse: opposite to reality.

Got Pen, Will Govern Dictate...

In the same style as we have grown used to around the world, a major negotiation has ended with all sides claiming victory and no sides offering any actual solutions. Iran proclaims the talks have made "significant progress," yet Western diplomats are saying progress is "limited," only to be confused even more by Iran's Foreign Minister stating that "but still we have not agreed on the reviewed solutions." So in summing it all up, a press conference will be held shortly to explain that 'they agree on the outline of a plan which will pave the way for an agreement but aren't sure how much of the plan or hypothetical agreement they want to share'. New normal geopolitics... no deal is the new deal.

Now we can see the real tragedy of negative interest rates: they not only have the perverse effect of reversing the flow of time, but they demonstrate that borrowers are not acting with the good faith incentives normally associated with someone who needs money. Rather than paying forward, borrowers are paying backwards because they are effectively trying to return something they don’t want. Such an arrangement renders it impossible for an economy to grow. By destroying the temporal and moral structure of money, negative interest rates destroy the economy. When tomorrow cannot be paid, the current regime must fail. The only question to be determined is the form that failure will assume. This may sound like philosophy but it is cold, hard reality.

According to the most recent earmarked gold data reported by the Fed, in the month of February another 10 tons of gold departed the NY Fed, following 20 tons in the month before, which if one assumes is merely the delayed relocation of gold previously demanded for delivery, has crossed the Atlantic and is now to be found in Frankfurt. This means that for the first time in the 21st century, the total gold tonnage held at the NY Fed is now under 6000 tons, or 5,989.5 to be precise.

Regarding the major problem of the more domestic issue of economic recovery, unless we would agree, which we really shouldn’t, that making a small group of the population richer while the much larger rest is made poorer, is how we define ‘recovery’, we have no recovery. But it is still accepted and proclaimed like a gospel: our economies are in recovery. If you take a step back and watch things from a distance, it’s truly too silly to be true, but endless repetition of the same lines, be they true or not, has them accepted as being cast in stone. It’s like selling detergent. Of course it doesn’t hurt that people very much want to believe a recovery is here. The stories we are bombarded with 24/7 under the quite hilarious misnomer ‘News’ have been prepared, pre-cooked and pre-chewed for our smooth and painless digestion, and as such they contain only tiny little flakes of reality. They are designed to make us feel good, not understand the world around us. And, as Scott Minerd says, the economic future for your entire families will look utterly bleak. Because that recovery they talk about? It’s not for you.

• Setbacks and progress as Iran, six powers meet to end nuclear impasse (Reuters)
• Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Leave Iran Nuclear Talks (WSJ)
• Obama Ramps Up Lobbying on Iran as Deadline Looms (WSJ)
• Greek yields edge up as lenders scrutinise reform pledge (Reuters)
• Oil prices drop on possible Iran deal, dollar (Reuters)
• Yemen’s Houthis Battle for Aden as Saudi Strikes Hit Rebels (BBG)
• Iran nuclear deal to see $20 oil if Tehran floods crude market (Telegraph)
• China’s Zhou Says PBOC Has Room to Act on Growth Slowdown (BBG)

"Global financial markets are more distorted than ever before and accordingly, the risks are very high... All equity and currency markets are pretty extended, at present; and many of the bond markets are as well... We know that the longer a distortion prevails, the more investors get used to it and it becomes the “new normal” to them. That’s where the problem lies! I see three potential threats..." - Felix Zulauf

“The new normal for the Chinese economy and banking sector includes sluggish growth and persistent credit deterioration,” one analyst tells Bloomberg. China's largest banks are seeing loans tied to manufacturing and other sectors sour which is cutting into profitability just as rate cuts squeeze NIM margins.

In a few minutes, Janet Yellen will address a lunch session in her native SF Fed (the same place that last week finally figured out what debt is) during a conference whose topic is The New Normal for Monetary Policy (the typo from "Paranormal" is easy to make). The informal agenda will be Yellen's explanation of how she plans on achieving the yield curve which we predicted back in 2010 is just a matter of time.

• Google's new CFO to make $70 million (WSJ)
• Senate passes Republican budget with deep safety net cuts (Reuters)
• With Yemen strikes, Saudis show growing independence from U.S. (Reuters)
• Banks Slash Dividends as Loans Sour From Beijing To Pearl River (BBG)
• North American Railroads Caught by Speed of Crude-Oil Collapse (BBG)
• Japan’s Zero Inflation a Setback for Abenomics (WSJ)
• Cooperman Says U.S. Seeks Information About Omega Trades (BBG)

Back on June 3, 2013, following what was merely the latest observation of how broken the market is thanks to central banks manipulation and HFT rigging, we wrote some snarky commentary.  And as happens with nearly 100% regularity nowadays, our snarky commentary on what takes place behind the scenes was once again almost 100% accurate. Because earlier today we learned precisely what happened...

We hate to spoil the surprise, but the answer, as clearly shown by the first blue bar on the chart below, is "Energy"...

"This time a year ago, the oil industry's biggest problem was finding a way to deal with the “retirement tsunami” about to crash down on it as older oilfield workers hung up their cork boots to enjoy freedom. Now, with oil prices still in the doldrums, many of those same workers are lucky to be hanging onto their jobs, while others have been booted from the payroll as an ugly wave of layoffs takes hold."