New Normal

This. Will. Not. End. Well. As WSJ reports, "retailers such as Kmart and Office Depot this week are starting to roll out cards that give the recipients small amounts of stock in some of the country’s best-known companies." "I have always wanted to get into the stock market business, but I honestly don’t have the time to explore what’s going on in the market trends of the day"...

Welcome to your new normal - single-factor- 100% correlated "markets"...

With JNJ about to announce - what are almost certain to be very bad - earnings in just over an hour, the company decided it was prudent to set the mood by preannouncing, less than an hour before earnings, good days are back again and that the company will do all in its power to not only increase the buyback pardon equity-linked compensation of CEO Alex Gorsky, but to reward shareholders for sticking with a company that hasn't announced a major buyback plan in recent months.

Wwith oil volatility surging in recent months, oil producers needed to take advantage of a rally, technical or otherwise, and an oil vol lull to reestablish hedges, even if it meant at far lower prices than recent benchmarks.  This is precisely what happened in the past week following one of the most torrid surges in the price of oil seen in recent years.

We would argue the main reason for Blackrock’s attempt to persuade the exchanges to adopt its recommendations on trading halts is that Blackrock itself is inconvenienced by downside volatility. Presumably the company is no stranger to leverage (how else can it squeeze out large returns with a portfolio this large in a ZIRP world?) and is therefore forced to exercise stop loss orders itself when the market declines fast. Such attempts to “regulate” everything, even the price swings markets are allowed to make, are attempts to stem oneself against nature.

The Fed needs to extricate itself from manipulating the financial markets. It needs to end backstopping market liquidity. It must never again print Trillions of new “money” out of thin air. Because so long as the marketplace perceives that the markets are "too big to fail", there will be speculative excess, major securities markets mispricings and Bubble fragilities. No one – average investor or sophisticated financial operator – has a clue as to the degree Fed policies have distorted asset prices.

This globalization of regional housing markets is pricing the middle class out of housing in areas that also happen to be strong job markets. Many commentators are concerned that a nation of homeowners is being transformed into a nation of renters, as housing is snapped up by hedge funds and wealthy elites fleeing China and the emerging markets. But will current conditions continue unchanged going forward?

Here is the chart exposing the "secret" behind biotech investing success: the more cash a biotech company burns, the higher the return it generates.

If you’re a fan of dovish policymakers who are committed to Keynesian insanity, you can always count on Minneapolis Fed chief Narayana Kocherlakota who is out today with the latest hint that NIRP is coming to America.

After a "no change" statement from The BoJ, today's dismal Japanese data was terrible enough to be great news in the new normal as August machine orders drop the most in at least a decade and stocks, USDJPY dipped and ripped. However, it was the China open that investors waited for (after China shares rising 10% in US trading, and CNH strengthening on lower than expected reported outflows) as Goldman slashed its 12m target for Chinese stocks, and Bocom's chief strategist (who called the boom and the bust) says "rally is mirage of new dawn, volume is dying, sell the rallies." PBOC fixed the Yuan at its strongest in 2 months and while Chinese stocks opened up notably it was less than US ADRs suggested (CSI +4% vs ASHR +9.5%).

It had been quite a downcast start to the third quarter earnings season following very disappointing earnings from Illumina, Adobe and Yum Brand. Then Moments ago agri-giant Monsanto made it four out of four when it reported absolutely terrible results, cut guidance, but at least announced a new $3 billion stock buyback, one that will soak up all the company's net cash flow. The cost of all of this: some 2,600 worker terminations.

The big overnight story was certainly the BOJ's announcement at 11pm Eastern whether or not the Japanese central bank would boost QE. This is how we previewed it: "now all eyes to the BOJ when tonight around 11pm Eastern, Japan's central bank is expected do and say precisely... nothing." Sure enough, nothing is precisely what the BOJ delivered, leading to a big, if brief tumble in the USDJPY suggesting many were expecting at least a little tip from the BOJ.

"For the first time in 120 years, winter average minimum temperature in the Sierra Nevada was above freezing"

Yellen’s detailed speech initially triggered an out-sized market reaction.  Unfortunately, it was mainly due to shallow market depth and weak-hand positions. Yellen’s speech should quickly begin to hurt over-priced financial assets. Yellen’s speech was the first time I can ever remember a Federal Reserve Chairperson commenting that inappropriate risk-taking might be undermining financial stability.  This is explicit confirmation that the Fed’s aim of lifting asset prices in the hopes they bolster broader economic activity has reached the end of its useful life.  Barring a financial or economic disaster, the ‘Fed put’ has been put out to pasture.

The current surge in dis-inflationary pressures is not just due to the recent fall in oil prices, but rather a global epidemic of slowing economic growth. While Janet Yellen addressed this "disinflationary" wave during her post-meeting press conference, the Fed still maintains the illusion of confidence that economic growth will return shortly. Unfortunately, this has been the Fed's "Unicorn" since 2011 as annual hopes of economic recovery have failed to materialize. However, it is these ongoing views of optimism that have collided with economic realities.