New Normal

Vancouver Finally Cracks Down On Chinese Home Buyers With 15% Real Estate Tax

The British Columbia government finally took our advice to stem hot money inflows into real estate by announcing a 15% transfer tax on foreign nationals who buy real estate in Metro Vancouver.  Finance Minister Mike de Jong unveiled the tax, which will take effect on August 2nd, after recent housing data revealed that foreign nationals spent more than $1 billion on British Columbia property between June 10 and July 14, or a mere $28.6mm per day.

DNC Chairwoman "Quarantined" From Convention After Sanders Demands "Someone Be Held Accountable" For Emails

In a shocking turn of events for the new normal, it appears that Bernie Sanders' campaign demands that "someone in the DNC be held accountable" over the leaked emails showing collusion to undermine any Clinton opposition, have been heard. As CNN reports, DNC Chair Debbie Wasserrman Schultz will not speak at or preside over the party's convention this week. As one top Democrat said "she's been quarantined."

Erdogan Goes Too Far, Market Warns As Lira, Turkish ETF Suddenly Tumble

While so far the Western diplomatic response to Erdogan's unprecedented putsch has been mostly stunned silence (with just the U.N. human rights chief expressing alarm about the mass suspension or removals of judges so far), the market is starting to get concerned, and moments ago the Turkish Lira suddenly tumbled, sliding below Friday's closing level, while at the same time the MSCI Turkish ETF plunged as well.

Treasuries Will Tell You All You Need To Know

Even with the S&P 500 hovering at all time highs and currencies moving all over the place, Bloomberg's Richard Breslow says the only asset class that is dispositive right now is bonds.

Weekend Reading: If I Was Janet Yellen

Unfortunately, for Janet, this is the 'trap'. The liquidity will dry up, the inventory restocking cycle will end, and the next “crisis” will be on the horizon with Ms. Yellen remaining stuck near the “zero bound.”  The past opportunities to “normalize” interest rate policy have come and gone. This opportunity will likely pass also and, as always, the Fed will realize far too late they are trapped. But by then, it won’t matter much to investors, or what’s left of them, anyway.

Germany Is About To Sell Zero-Coupon 10 Year Bonds For The First Time Ever

On Wednesday morning Germany will sell 10-year bonds with a zero coupon for the first time, as a rally in fixed-income securities pushes investors to forgo annual interest payments in order to hold the safest assets. The nation is selling €5 billion of zero percent bonds due in August 2026 on Wednesday, after yields in the secondary market dropped to an all-time low of minus 0.205% last week.

Kyle Bass Was Right: Here Is SocGen's Primer How To Trade The Biggest Yuan "Depreciation Wave" Yet

The new risk scenario for CNY is 8.0 (20% increase in USD-CNY). The caveat is that the pain threshold for the market appears to be much higher than before and the implications for the global financial markets will primarily depend on the speed of depreciation. We believe that it would take significantly more pressure on capital flows than what we have seen over the past few years, or an economic hard landing, for our risk scenario to unfold.

Saudi Strategy Working: OPEC Captures Largest Market Share Since 1975

OPEC has captured its largest share of the oil market since 1975, which could be seen as a vindication of the cartel’s strategy over the past two years. But it also creates vulnerabilities for the U.S. and others, who are once again increasingly dependent on the Middle East for oil.

Sovereign Credit Is Deteriorating At A Record Pace

Culminating with the tipping of the UK's numerous real estate fund "dominoes" and the subsequent fallout in the wake Brexit, Fitch has been on a ratings-slashing spree, having cut the credit ratings on 14 nations so far in 2016, most recently that of the United Kingdom - a record downgrade pace for the rating agency.

The Reason For The Relentless Scramble For US Corporate Debt In One Chart

While the $5.9tr US IG corporate bond market represents only 12% of that global market, it is now responsible for 33.0% of its total (effective) yield payment. In other words, nearly one in three (global) dollars paid out in the global IG broad market is paid to investors in the US IG corporate bond market.

Following Near Record Buying Spree, Gold ETF Holding Rise Above 2,000 Tons, Highest Since 2013

Holdings in bullion-backed exchange-traded funds rose 4.1 tons to 2,001.4 tons on Wednesday, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s larger than the alleged gold reserves held by China (in reality China holds far more gold but it willing to only represent a fraction of its official holdings) the biggest consumer and a consistent central-bank buyer in recent months. The latest increase followed the biggest one-day gain since 2009 in the SPDR Gold Shares, the largest gold ETF.

China To Boost "Economic Growth" By Changing Definition Of GDP

Under the new method, the size of the economy is larger than previously estimated; 2015 GDP was revised up by 1.3% to 11tn USD, the Real growth rate was also revised up (rates vary from year to year and averaged 0.06% (6 bps) over the past 5 years). The upward revision is because China’s R&D expenditure growth has been consistently faster than that of overall GDP. With further upward revisions, which appear likely, there should be incrementally lower pressures to reach the growth targets in the coming years.

"Whatever It Takes" Remains The New Normal

"Flaws reminiscent of some of the most obtuse assumptions that led to the financial crisis and have been the cornerstone of extraordinary monetary policies since then."

Bill Gross Says Yellen "Worships False Idols" So "Worry About The Return Of Your Money, Not On It"

"Investors should not hope unrealistically for deficit spending any time soon. To me, that means at best, a ceiling on risk asset prices (stocks, high yield bonds, private equity, real estate) and at worst, minus signs at year's end that force investors to abandon hope for future returns compared to historic examples. Worry for now about the return "of" your money, not the return "on" it."