New Normal

Just a month ago, we were exuberantly told that the 14.7% rise in August sales for GM (against an expectation of an 11% rise) was not just great news but was entirely sustainable. Some suggested that this was merely demand dragged forward as rates rose, dealers channels were stuffed, and the vinegar strokes of an exuberant Fed were occurring. Today we have our answer...

• *GM U.S. SEPT. VEHICLE SALES FALL 11%, EST. DOWN 4.2%
• Inventory up to 82 days from 64 days!! (Surge to 670,191 units from 628,644 prior)

We are sure that weather played a role; the calendar didn't help; government (Republicans) are probably at fault somehow; and it's a 'blip' but it seems like quite a miss for a "sustainable" new normal in auto sales.

BofA's breakdown: "The shutdown will likely add to the budget deficit. It is costly to stop and start programs. The 1995-96 shutdown directly added $1.4 bn to the deficit (about $2.5 bn in today’s dollars) Moreover, the shock to growth will undercut tax revenues. In addition, ironically it does not impact the implementation of Obamacare since it is an entitlement similar to Medicare. However, there is some chance it could delay US economic data releases: in 1996, the December employment report was delayed two weeks as a result of the shutdown then. The Federal Reserve and the Post Office, both of which do not depend on Congressional appropriations, will not see any cutbacks due to a shutdown."

For the first time in 4 months, Chicago PMI printed better than expected with its highest level since May. Production and New Orders rose but in keeping with the new normal, the employment sub index fell for the 3rd month in a row to 5 month lows. It seems the good news that was "expected" as the market ramped higher into the release has been stymied by good news is bad news reality as all the opening ramp gains have faded.

The sausage-making continues... "stop the madness" urge Dem. Nita Lowey, but once the committee has agreed, it's off to the floor for what the White House calls:

"A vote for the Republican bill is a vote for Shutdown"

Despite the House's bill claiming it is to keep the government funded... It seems do as we say or else is the new normal White House policy as the fear-mongery grows.

With President Obama now on closer talking terms with Iran's President Rouhani than the Republicans, we thought the "major geopolitical shift," that this is supposed to be should be offset with a glance at the 'known' nuclear facilities that Iran possesses as the White House proceeds along its "difficult" path to "resolution" - not not regime change...

They say "money can't buy happiness" (though it will pay for the search) and it seems despite all their billions, Tesla's Elon Musk and Amazon's Jeff Bezos just can't find a happy middle ground over the control of a historic launch pad at Kennedy Space Center. According to Bloomberg, SpaceX (Musk), and Blue Origin (Bezos) intend to ramp up their launch schedules and "there are a limited number of East Coast established launch sites." Of course, in the new normal we live in, both sides have taken the higher ground and are trying to get Congress' attention, "it doesn’t matter if you’re making buggy whips or rockets, the way to get Congress’ attention is to hire a lobbyist," and sure enough the letters are flying. And after all: what billionaire can be truly satisfied unless they own a rocket launch pad?

Some joked that the Chicago Fed's Twitter account must have been hacked buyt it turns out that is not entirely true. Following Esther George's "renegade" comments last night, Austan Goolsbee was unleashed by Fed's Evans to lay down some ugly truthiness in 140-character-world. The results - in these 2 tweets - say everything about the level of excessive optimism that remains in our new normal world...

Now that "bail-ins" have become accepted practice all over the planet, no bank account and no pension fund will ever be 100% safe again. In fact, Cyprus-style wealth confiscation is already starting to happen all around the world. As we warned two years ago, "the muddle through has failed... and there may only be painful ways out of this."

• The new normal name of a broken market: glitches - NYSE, Nasdaq Consider Cooperating to Address Glitches (WSJ)
• Early Thursday Humor: Abe Tells Wall Street Japan’s Economy Is Exceptionally Good (BBG)
• Rising Rates Seen Squeezing Swaps Income at Biggest Banks (BBG)
• JPMorgan Mortgage Talks Said to Discuss $11 Billion Deal (BBG)
• Can't make this up: HFT firm "finds" Fed did not leak data early to benefit HFT firms (FT)
• Hertz Cuts Full-Year Forecast on Weak U.S. Airport Rentals (BBG)
• Greece does not need third bailout, seeks debt 'reprofiling' - deputy PM (Reuters) - right, it needs a fourth and fifth
• Hezbollah gambles all in Syria (Reuters)
• Twitter Adds J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley as Bankers on IPO (WSJ)
• Messi in Court Shows Tax Collectors Set to Pursue Star Athletes (BBG)

UPDATE: CNBC Damage Control - Story was "misunderstood" and "misleading"...but not denied... CNBC is to Wal-mart as Hilsenrath to the Fed

 Welcome to the new normal recovery... if ever there was a headline that summed up the idiocy of the mal-invested distorted new normal, Wal-Mart just managed it:

*WAL-MART CUTTING ORDERS (In Q3 & Q4) AS UNSOLD MERCHANDISE PILES UP IN U.S.

So, it seems the "if we build it (or stock it), they will come (and buy)" mentaility has failed yet again... As we noted before, as goes Wal-Mart, so goes America...

When it comes to the "fairness doctrine", there was always some confusion in the matter of work ethic: how was it fair that some should work under the socialism-endorsed confines of a 29.5 hour workweek, while being forced to suffer the indignity and moral denigration of watching others labor under the faux guise of capitalism, putting in 60, 80, even 100 or more hours per week in the pursuit of self-actualization, contentment and general happiness? Furthermore, as has been well documented, despite rumors the contrary, the biggest incubator of neosocialism the "fairness doctrine" is not the US, nor Leningrad (sic), but France.... Sephora's flagship Champs Élysées cosmetics store, one which attracts six million people a year or nearly as many as the Eiffel Tower, has been ordered by a French appeals court to close at 9 pm at the latest because it "breached work-time regulations by hosting customers until midnight on weekdays and 1 am on weekends."

"I'm not going to sit on my laurels and say I was an executive making six figures and traveling the world,” 77-year-old Tom Palome says, "I tell people I demonstrate food and I do short-order cooking. I don’t mind saying it. What's important is that I can work today." As Bloomberg reports, the former vice president of marketing for Oral-B juggles two part-time jobs: one as a $10-an-hour food demonstrator at Sam’s Club, the other flipping burgers and serving drinks at a golf club grill for slightly more than minimum wage; a sad but all too real reflection of the new normal 'job' gains that our economists and politicians love to crow about. Why is he still working? Like most Americans, he didn't save enough for retirement (despite working hard his entire career). About 7.2 million Americans over 65 were employed last year, a 67% increase from a decade ago as 59% of households headed by people over 65 have no retirement assets.

Four years after it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, and was purchased from the depths of bankruptcy court hell by Fiat S.p.A., the circle (jerk) is complete, and thanks to lead underwriter JPM, the second coming of Chrysler, this time for sale to a whole new batch of gullible ROI chasers, is now a fact with the S-1 statement filing moments ago, in which the only cash transfer will be from the VEBA Trust to new shareholders and no new cash will go to the actual company. In other words, the UAW is selling to the general public.

While the commemoration of the 5 year anniversary of the start of the Great Financial Crisis is slowing but surely fading, another just as important anniversary is revealed when one goes back not 5 but 15 years into the past, specifically to September 23, 1998. On that day, the policy that came to define the New Normal more than any other, namely the bailout of those deemed Too Big To Fail, a/k/a throwing good (private or taxpayer) money after bad was enshrined by Wall Street as the official canon when faced with a situation where capitalism, namely failure, is seen as Too Dangerous To Succeed. This was first known as the Greenspan Put, subsequently the Bernanke Put, and its current iteration is best known as the Global Central Banker All-In Systemic Put. We sow the seeds of bailing out insolvent financial corporations to this day, when instead of making them smaller and breaking them up, they are rewarded by becoming even bigger, even more systemics, and even Too Bigger To Fail, and their employees are paid ever greater record bonuses.

Recall that three weeks ago we warned that "Monti Paschi Faces Bail-In As Capital Needs Point To Nationalization" although we left open the question of "who will get the haircut including senior bondholders and depositors.... given the small size of sub-debt in the capital structures." Today, as many expected on the day following the German elections, the dominos are finally starting to wobble, and as we predicted, Monte Paschi, Italy's oldest and according to many, most insolvent bank, quietly commenced a bondholder "bail in" after it said that it suspended interest payments on three hybrid notes following demands by European authorities that bondholders contribute to the restructuring of the bailed out Italian lender. Remember what Diesel-BOOM said about Cyprus - that it is a template? He wasn't joking.