New York Stock Exchange
Dennis Gartman, already humiliated beyond any hope of reputation salvage in the media, appears to be refocusing his keen talents and acute sense of extrapolating instantaneous market momentum 1 millisecond into the future, to a renewed direct exposure in the capital markets. And while hoping that market junkies have forgotten the epic disaster that was his last foray into ETF-land with ONN and OFF, Gartman today announced that he is now launching his signature shtick as a brand new ETF: gold... in non-dollar terms.
2014 has been an unusual year so far. The worst start for stocks in decades stunned many but has been saved by the best rally in a few years' asset-gatherers proclaim it was the dip to be bought but volume never came back to buy that dip (despite its exuberant surge). So where is all the volume in 2014? Nanex has the answer... investors have been geting 'high' by weeding-out OTC stocks...
"Stay defensive," warns BofAML's Macneil Curry. While risk assets ended last week on a very strong note, with the S&P500 putting in its best 2 day performance since October; the weight of evidence says that new S&P500 lows are coming and that risk assets should suffer in the weeks ahead. From the S&P500’s impulsive decline from 1850, to negative February seasonals, to deteriorating equity market breadth (the percent of NYSE stocks trading above their 200d avg is at its lowest since Oct'12); it should pay to remain defensive. In the week ahead we look for a top into the 1800/1823 area before the downtrend resumes for 1711/1686; and stay bullish bonds.
With 31% of the float short, Green Mountain, despite announcing weaker than expected numbers, are spiking over 45% on news that Coca-Cola is taking a 10% stake. Albeit at a discount to the price at which GMCR closed today ($80.88 close vs $74.98 purchase price); the massive squeeze is Volkswagen-reminiscent. As the following press release explains, The Keurig Cold System is in development and thus SodaStream is getting creamed in the after-hours market (down over 10%). It seems, once again, that Whitney Tilson has managed to get himself in a short squeeze.
Because Americans obviously can not be trusted with making the right, or any, decisions, without parental supervision, the CVS Caremark pharmacy chain has decided to do it for them. "CVS Caremark announced today that it will stop selling cigarettes and other tobacco products at its more than 7,600 CVS/pharmacy stores across the U.S. by October 1, 2014, making CVS/pharmacy the first national pharmacy chain to take this step in support of the health and well-being of its patients and customers. "Ending the sale of cigarettes and tobacco products at CVS/pharmacy is the right thing for us to do for our customers and our company to help people on their path to better health," said Larry J. Merlo, President and CEO, CVS Caremark. "Put simply, the sale of tobacco products is inconsistent with our purpose." Well, unless all other major retail chains decide to pull the Bloomberg stunt and follow suit, that only means more money for CVS' competitors. And now we begin the countdown of how long before CVS also pulls all the other "evil", cheap high-calorie, zero nutrient junk foods that dominate its shelves and whose consumption is responsible for the bulk of cardiovascular diseases and premature deaths in the US.
The farce that is the so-called stock "market" gets more and more mindblowing every day. Following yesterday's record high volume in VIX futures and options, this morning saw one stock - the $4bn market cap WhiteWave Foods represent a stunning 27% of all quotes in this morning's pre-open. As Nanex notes in this great analysis, HFT algos generated 2.04 million quotes which created... drum roll please... 3 trades.
Despite every talking head having written off the miners, they were the best performer across US equity sub-indices. In the US equity markets Biotech and REITs also performed well. On the other hand, Nasdaq Insurance and NYSE Arca Oil ETF were the worst...along with the NYSE Composite Index (which represents 61% of all global market capitalization).
This past week we read some very diverse articles, which, hopefully, will stimulate your grey matter over the weekend as you indulge in melted artifical cheese, processed fillers, and copious amounts of artificial colorings and flavors during the Super Bowl showdown (assuming you did not order any of the party packs). With everybody hoping that someone else is going to pull them out of the quicksand - who is left to do the pulling?
The following infographic focuses on what is probably the key issue for current state of the physical gold-strapped market: which gold miners hold the most (physical, not paper) supply.
If the Fed doesn't "save us" this afternoon - I don't know what will.
Today's short squeeze, EM-is-fixed, Fed-hope-fueled relief rally (in the face of compounding errors in earnings expectations and outlooks) we thought reminiscing on what happened the last time stocks were this high and over-levered and debt-bloated entities were rapidly revealed for what they were would be useful. While the 'just three charts' we showed two weeks ago provide plenty of concern, when the NYSE Composite, which accounts for 1,900 companies representing 61% of the world's publicly traded stock market capitalization, shows eery similarities to the tipping point in 2007 as NewEdge's Brad Wishack pointed out earlier, we thought it worth sharing.
That margin debt just soared to new all time highs in december should come as no surprise to anyone. However what may come as a shock to many is that the other key metric provided by the NYSE - total net free credit - also known as investor net worth (calculated as Free Credit Cash plus Credit Balances in Margin Accounts less Margin Debt) just dropped to a whopping $148 billion, double where it was in February 2013, and double where it was during the peak of the last stock (and credit and housing) bubble, when it rose to a then-all time high of $79 billion in June 2007. It was all downhill from there.
There are two major factors that have emerged in the last five years that have sparked a surge in LNG investments. First is the shale gas “revolution” in the United States, which allowed the U.S. to vault to the top spot in the world for natural gas production. This caused prices to crater to below $2 per million Btu (MMBTu) in 2012, down from their 2008 highs above $10/MMBtu. Natural gas became significantly cheaper in the U.S. than nearly everywhere else in the world. The second major event that opened the floodgates for investment in new LNG capacity is the Fukushima nuclear crisis in Japan. Already the largest importer of LNG in the world before the triple meltdown in March 2011, Japan had to ratchet up LNG imports to make up for the power shortfall when it shut nearly all of its 49 gigawatts of nuclear capacity. In 2012, Japan accounted for 37% of total global LNG demand. The future of LNG may indeed be bright, especially when considering that global energy demand has nowhere to go but up. But, investors should be aware of the very large threat that Japanese nuclear reactors present to upstart LNG projects.
While 2014 has not quite panned out (so far) as the traveling-strategist-roadshow would have hoped, the last few days have been outright perilous for the record high numbers with bullish sentiment sucked into a world of central-bank-suppressed volatility and jawboned utopia. The following charts show where the pain has been (e.g. Greece, Spain, Argentina, European banks) and where it has not been (e.g. gold miners, China, Philipinnes, and Egypt) with the US indices sitting squarely in the middle with some of their biggest losses in months. For now, the BTFATH'ers are absent - even though the drooling mouths of asset-gatherers are demanding the 'cash on the sidelines' use this 2-3-4% drop from the all-time highs to load the boat for retirement heaven... However, some have increasing concerns...