New York Times

It should be easy to at least get the direction of interest rate changes correct, most of the time.  Instead as we see in the chart here, professional money managers always get this wrong (and truth be told this pattern has been going on for many cycles).  The problem is just as bad when it comes to predicting stock price changes for the following year. While both risks in stock and bond markets are again smouldering in advance we focus our attention here on the knottier and more pertinent idea of the dispersion about interest rates expected for 2016.  In other words, what should this probability distribution of outcomes or errors best look like?

If the United States were truly serious about terrorism, it would start by gauging the level of threat properly and communicating that appraisal to the American people: We would also have a more honest and open discussion about our own role in generating it; we would now be having a frank discussion about the role of the media; we’d also see more creative efforts to discredit, marginalize, spoof, and embarrass the groups we oppose; and you’d see a more hardnosed approach to the various American “allies” who are part of the problem rather than being part of the solution.

"It's a fraud really, a fake," says James Hansen rubbing his head. The former NASA Scientist, considered the father of global awareness of climate change, exclaimed "It's just bullshit for them to say: 'We'll have a 2C warming target and then try to do a little better every five years.' It's just worthless words. There is no action, just promises. As long as fossil fuels appear to be the cheapest fuels out there, they will be continued to be burned."

Here’s one for the "actions speak louder than words" file: Investment research firm TrimTabs reported on Wednesday that insider selling reached $7.6 billion for the month of November, the fourth-highest monthly level on record.

“There are enough people in the last two nights of the sample to question the widespread assumption that Trump’s comments will hurt him among GOP primary voters.”

"For years since 9/11, U.S. and Western officials have mostly looked the other way at all this ideological support for extremism: Saudi oil was just too important to the global economy, even though many of these Saudi petro-dollars were underwriting repression at home and the growth of Salafist fundamentalism abroad."

The left is now mixing terrorism and mass shootings to push a narrative to eviscerate the Second Amendment. We once again have rehashed stories about the AR-15 rifle, which isn’t as powerful as a hunting rifle and rarely used in crimes. And we have the media endorsing gun control policies that would require gun bans and confiscation. They’re insinuating parts of it, but the brash call to ban guns entirely is coming.

“A ban on assault weapons and large-capacity magazines might not prevent shootings in Highland Park (where they are already rare), but it may reduce the carnage if a mass shooting occurs. If a ban on semiautomatic guns and large-capacity magazines reduces the perceived risk from a mass shooting, and makes the public feel safer as a result, that’s a substantial benefit.”

Iraq “may soon ask Russia for direct military intervention in response to the Turkish invasion and the violation of Iraqi sovereignty."

"What you're going to hear from him is a discussion about what government is doing to ensure all of our highest priority — the protection of the American people," the US attorney general said. Lynch's staff later confirmed that the president will specifically call on Congress to review certain gun control measures. And since Congress has long ago given up on taking action in a world in which the Fed's Chairman/woman is expected to "get to work", it will again be up to an Obama executive order to restore peace to the land by continuing his crusade against the Second amendment.

We all like to know what’s happening in the world, and for good reason... understanding our surroundings is essential to survival. We instinctively seek information... we need information. There is, however, a problem that we face: No matter how much “news” you consume, you won’t really know what’s going on in the world. We can’t know, because ‘the news’ is half illusion, provided by government-dependent corporations that are paid to keep you watching and to keep you joined to the status quo. That’s the truth about news, my friends. The newspapers are where the yokels get informed, presidents flatly lie, and legislatures are massively corrupt.

"As the founding editor-in-chief of the Today's Zaman, I have sincerely tried to fulfill my job to the best of my ability, maintained the paper's integrity and tried to resist all kinds of pressure from the government as much as I could."

There is little question that bullshit is a real and consequential phenomenon (especially popular in the financial markets and central planning arena). Indeed, as the following scientific study finds, given the rise of communication technology and the associated increase in the availability of information from a variety of sources, both expert and otherwise, bullshit may be more pervasive than ever before. Despite these seemingly commonplace observations, we know of no psychological research on bullshit. Are people able to detect blatant bullshit? Who is most likely to fall prey to bullshit and why?