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In what can only be the most ironic of stories today, Reuters is reporting that Citigroup has become the first financial services client for IBM's Jeopardy-playing human-cognitive 'machine' Watson. While IBM expects the financial services segment to provide significant revenues, we worry that Congress will enact some protectionist policy as thousands of highly paid extrapolators analysts are suddenly outsourced to a non-eating, non-bonused, non-champagne-buying, non-tax-paying server farm somewhere. Supposedly Watson offers a 'huge marketing edge' as the government-owned bank is likely to use the uber-computer for "risk management (as opposed to stock picking)" as it offers a 'more global picture' combing through 10-Ks, prospectuses, loan performances, and earnings quality while uncovering sentiment and news not in the usual metrics. We look forward to the next conference call as Vikram is replaced by a Siri-Watson discussion of why TBTF exists.

The UK's Daily Mirror newspaper has uncovered the FX trader who dropped over $300k in a Scouse club. It is a 23-year old 'self-taught' barrow-boy named (somewhat ironically in our view) Alex Hope. Self-described as "talented (three years in and a six-figure salary, hhmm), charismatic (its amazing how much 'charisma' a GBP125k bottle of bubbly will buy), and thoroughly likeable (ditto) man. Alex Hope exudes knowledge..." and is willing to share it with you according to his website. How did he become this B.S.D. of the FX markets? "I took two months off my job at Wembley, got really obsessed with reading charts and got the guts to start trading properly." This self-made rosy-cheeked young chap with a penchant for mind-numbingly-arrogant-looking photos on his website may have just become the poster boy for all that is 'great' about the free market - or perhaps a skim through his blog and media exposure will reassure us all that anything is possible as we note he does have some good taste (not just in Champagne) in RTing our posts on Twitter. We can only HOPE that the next time he decides to go down the rub-a-dub-dub for a Leo Sayer, maybe he'll take some of us Septic Tanks with him on the frog-and-toad...as the days of the ship-it-in-large-on-the-left John, done-a-yard by-breakfast spot FX trader are clearly back with us.

On January 30, a skeleton fell out of the closet in the Netherlands. Het Financiele Dagblad reported that Vestia, the biggest Public Housing Corporation in the Netherlands with 79 thousand rental units, had had a margin call of 1.6 billion euros on its interest rate derivative portfolio. Vestia had doubled its derivative contracts to 10 billion dollars (in notional value) in 2010 on a loan portfolio of 6 billion euros. They say they had arranged the extra “coverage” already for potential future loans.

The loan to cover the shortfall had secretly been provided by the fund guaranteeing Public Housing Corporations, the Warborgfonds, since September 2011. Recently Vestia was able to secure a replacement loan from the De NederlandseWaterschapsbank.

According to RTLZ, Vestia's Contract Support Annexes will have to be examined in detail to figure out exactly what the conditions are. The Interior Minister has been promised the results of this examination sometime in March.

Twenty Woningcorporaties are preparing to guarantee Vestia liquidity of another billion euros. They will demand strict conditions on this sum according to NRC. They want assurances that they will not have to contribute to the Centraal Fonds Volkshuisvesting (CNV) so-called reorganization support if any other corporations get into trouble.

It is not entirely clear how many Woningcorporaties have derivative contracts but newspaper Trouw estimates there to be 148 of them. A fall in interest rates of one percent would require 24 to seek additional funding, according to Interior Minister Spies in NOS news. Another 24 on the other hand have been rumoured to be able to withstand this scenario. RTLZ reports that 20 of them have already had margin calls on their derivative products.

It could all lead to a viscous spiral downwards in the sector according to NRC Handelsblad. In fact, four directors of other Woningcorporations anonymously state in Trouw that Public Housing corporations are too lax in offering guarantees to each other through the Waarborgfonds. If the government or the CNV intervenes, it could alarm bankers who will call in all outstanding Vestia loans (NRC). This is not likely according to Vestia mouthpiece Ronald Florisson because the corporation now has enough funding on hand thanks to the winding down of the derivative contracts. Florisson is “very thankful” for the arranged backstop.

Vestia has jacked up the rents for new renters by 9 percent. Several opposition parties are not amused and are going to protest in Parliament this week.

Director Eric Staal left Vestia with a rather unusual golden handshake of 3.5 million euros, allegedly to secure his pension requirements. He had earned 500 thousand euros a year, two or three times the norm for directors of public and semi-public institutions. However this is all being investigated. The PVV (Partij Voor de Vrijheid) is demanding the seizure Staal's Caribbean villa.

Vestia's Advisory Board has recently confirmed that the current director is being paid according to the “Balkenende norm” set by government for the sector. These semi-public servants are allowed to earn 130 percent of a Government Minister's salary, which was 187 340 euros in 2011, plus expenses of 7560 euros. Despite the fact that the salaries of these directors of semi-public institutions have to be published, there are regular scandals in which they have been found to receive much more.

Another noteworthy example of things coming unhinged in the Public Housing sector involves a management company working for one of the corporations. These companies stand between buyers and renters of Woningcorporatie properties and do investment and development work in the sector.

It was reported on 23 February that management concern Redema had had the Owners' Associations savings accounts put into bank accounts in its own name and went bankrupt. It will cost 'hundreds' of families at least 1.5 million dollars. Since more and more public housing is being sold off instead of rented, the whole phenomenon of Owners' Associations is relatively new for many people.

So there is lots of uncertainty in Public Housing these days. The entire Public Housing Corporation sector has loans (I don't believe they issue bonds) outstanding of around 85 billion euros, ultimately guaranteed by government. According to writer Peter Verhaar at nuzakelijk.nl, Standard and Poors rates the sector “extremely strong”. Verhuur argues that the problems are largely due to Public Housing having undergone a fake privatization.

Undertheradar's goal is to give an impression of the state of economics, finance and politics in the Netherlands and compare it to its partners in the eurozone.

What is one sure thing sure to set triggerhappy warmonger fingers in the US and Israel on Defcon 1 more than the word Iran? The words Iran and North Korea. How about three nouns that will send crude soaring by at least $10 the second a CL trading algo sees them fly across Bloomberg? Try "Iran" "North Korea" and "Nukes." And if the following report just released by the Wiener Zeitung is even remotely correct, then Israel, the military industrial complex, and crude are all about to go ballistic, not necessarily in that order.

And now for a word from Fireman Tim...

Nearly two years after his catastrophic foray into Op-Ed writing, here is Tim Geithner's latest, this time making the hypocritical case to "not forget the lesson from the financial crisis"... which he himself ushered on America as head of the New York Fed. Frankly we are quite sure it is not even worth reading this drivel: the unemployed man walking has been a total disaster during his entire tenure (at both the New York Fed where he supervised all the banks that subsequently fell, and the Treasury), and we are fairly confident that reading anything written by this pathological failure will cost collective IQs to drop by 10 points at a minimum. Hey Tim: is there a risk the US can get downgraded? Any risk?

That the German vote to pass the second Greek bailout package would be problematic is an understatement. Even as German parliamentarians are expected to pass the latest (but certainly not last as the G-20 meeting over the weekend demonstrated) hurdle to fund the Greek rescue, new revelations out of Greece have come to light exposing the true degree of capital flight out of the country, spearheaded by none other than the country's own corrupt politicians. Kathimerini reports: "As a political outcry grew on Friday over the revelation that an MP had transferred 1 million euros out of the country in May when authorities were struggling to appease Greek citizens’ fears of the repercussions of a possible default on their savings, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told Parliament that a significant number of lawmakers had moved sums in excess of 100,000 euros out of the country. Earlier, addressing a cabinet meeting, Venizelos had told fellow ministers that there are several public figures among the Greeks who transferred a total of 16 billion euros abroad over the last two years. According to research conducted by the Finance Ministry’s information systems department, 9 percent of this money ended up in Swiss bank accounts." As such, it is obvious why German popular tabloid Bild has called for German lawmakers to reject the Greek bailout: at this point the farce is arguably too much for everyone, and the situation is playing out just as predicted here back in July. Merkel is due to address the Bundestag at 3 pm local time, or in just over an hour. Those curious about the blow by blow, can follow the developments out of Germany at the following live blog by Bild.

Has Anyone Noticed that the Guy Quoted Looks EXACTLY Like Sean Connery's Evil Twin?

• Obama Administration Said Set to Release Corporate Tax-Rate Plan Today (Bloomberg, WSJ)
• Greece races to meet bail-out demands (FT)
• IAEA ‘disappointed’ in Iran nuclear talks (FT)
• Hilsenrath: Fed Writes Sweeping Rules From Behind Closed Doors (WSJ)
• Fannie-Freddie Plan, Sweden FSA, Trader Suspects, CDO Lawsuit: Compliance (Bloomberg)
• Bank of England’s Bean Says Greek Deal Doesn’t End Disorderly Outcome Risk (Bloomberg)
• Greece Second Bailout Plan an ‘Important Step,’ Treasury’s Brainard Says (Bloomberg)
• Shanghai Eases Home Purchase Restrictions (Bloomberg)

For several weeks now we have been warning that while the conventional wisdom is that Europe will never let Greece slide into default, Germany has been quietly preparing for just that. This culminated on Friday when the schism between Merkel, who is of the persuasion that Greece should remain in the Eurozone, and her Finmin, Wolfgang "Dr. Strangle Schauble" Schauble, who isn't, made Goldman Sachs itself observe that there is: "Growing dissent between Chancellor Merkel and finance minister Schäuble regarding Greece." We now learn, courtesy of the Telegraph's Bruno Waterfield, that Germany is far deeper in Greece insolvency preparations than conventional wisdom thought possible (if not Zero Hedge, where we have been actively warning for over two weeks that Germany is perfectly eager and ready to roll the dice on a Greek default). Yet it is not only Germany that is getting ready for the inevitable. So is Greece.

A few weeks ago, some of the more naive media elements reported that Greece has "all the cards" in its negotiations with private creditors, a topic we had the pleasure of deconstructing in its entirety to its constituent flaws? Well, a day ahead of the February 15 Eurozone meeting at which Greece's fate is finally supposed to be settled, things appear to be quite amiss. As a reminder, a critical part of the Greek debt deal is the private sector's agreement to roll over existing holdings into new bonds, which as we learned may now see the 15 cent per bond sweetener into new EFSF debt reduced. According to the Handelsblatt, that is now off the table. Dow Jones summarizes: "Some central bankers expect that Greece will fail to enlist enough private investors in a voluntary debt restructuring to avoid a technical default, a German newspaper reported Tuesday.  Greece is likely to make its case for a voluntary debt swap after a meeting of euro group finance ministers Wednesday, the Handelsblatt newspaper says. The Greek government is seeking to lower its burden by EUR100 billion. Handelsblatt cites unnamed central bank sources as saying the country will fail to achieve that goal, leaving the government little choice but to make the write-down mandatory for investors holding out. Requiring investors to take a loss would prompt credit rating agencies to declare a debt default for Greece, an event with unforeseeable consequences for financial markets. The report doesn't specify whether its sources are with the European Central Bank or with the German Bundesbank. Neither bank would comment early Tuesday." Which of course is not news: after all even the rating agencies have long warned a Greek default is now inevitable, and a CDS trigger will follow. The only thing that there is massive confusion over is whether and how this event will impact everyone else, and whether it will lead to an explusion of Greece from the Eurozone. Optimism is that it is all priced in. So was Lehman.

When discussing the Greek vote to pass a request for cash which is based on nothing substantial but merely more pledges to fix its economy in exchange for fresh billions in secured debt (aka bailouts) which will prime at least 136% of the country's GDP with a direct lien, we said all that matters is Germany's response. In which case ths following statement from German FinMin Schauble is likely indicative that this time around Greece will need to literally move mountains to convince Europe it will comply. From Reuters: "Greek promises on austerity measures are no longer good enough because so many vows have been broken and the country that has been a "bottomless pit" has to dramatically change its ways, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said. In a hard-hitting interview with the Welt am Sonntag newspaper, Schaeuble also said it is up to Greece whether the country can stay in the euro zone as part of its efforts to restore its competitiveness. "The promises from Greece aren't enough for us anymore," Schaeuble said. "With a new austerity programme they are going to first have to implement parts of the old programme and save." Yet one wonders just how will Greece first implement the measures from the first one if Europe has to vote tomorrow (or Wednesday, it is all a blur now), on ratifying the second bailout. Or was this weekend's entire Greek exercise merely one of complete irrelevance. In other news, we are fairly confident that February budget revenues are going to come in well below projections, and make the already disappointing January numbers seem like gangbusters.

The Greek daily http://www.dimokratianews.gr/ (price 1 Euro, not 2000 Drachma) may have summarized best what at least a prominent subsegment of Greece feels toward Die Frau, who quite adeptly managed to dodge the Greek "pledge"  gambit, so thoroughly discussed earlier, and put the ball back in the Lucas Papademos' court, who now must be tearing his hair out: not only did Europe put him in his current position, but now it is the same Europe who no longer wants him in... What's a former ECB apparatchik and Trilateral Commission member to do...

• New Greek demands threaten debt deal (FT)
• Greek Finance Minister Heads to Brussels; Loan Talks Stall (WSJ)
• Talks Stalled on Greek Bailout as Venizelos Heads to Brussels (Bloomberg)
• US banks near historic deal on foreclosures (FT)
• Obama: Europe needs "absolute commitment" on debt crisis (Reuters)
• Fed's Lacker sees no need for more easing for now (Reuters)
• Europe compromise urged at summit (China Daily)
• China to Punish Illicit Bank Lending, Shanghai Securities Says (Bloomberg)
• Monti Meets Obama Amid ’Spectacular Progress’ (Bloomberg)
• Draghi’s First 100 Days Presage Greek Help (Bloomberg)

Back in July of 2011, when we first predicted the demise of the second Greek bailout package, even before the details were fully known in "The Fatal Flaw In Europe's Second "Bazooka" Bailout: 82 Million Soon To Be Very Angry Germans, Or How Euro Bailout #2 Could Cost Up To 56% Of German GDP" we asked, "what happens tomorrow when every German (in a population of 82 very efficient million) wakes up to newspaper headlines screaming that their country is now on the hook to 32% of its GDP in order to keep insolvent Greece, with its 50-some year old retirement age, not to mention Ireland, Portugal, and soon Italy and Spain, as part of the Eurozone? What happens when these same 82 million realize that they are on the hook to sacrificing hundreds of years of welfare state entitlements (recall that Otto von Bismark was the original welfare state progentior) just so a few peripheral national can continue to lie about their deficits (the 6 month Greek deficit already is missing Its full year benchmark target by about 20%) and enjoy generous socialist benefits up to an including guaranteed pensions? What happens when an already mortally wounded in the polls Angela Merkel finds herself in the next general election and experiences an epic electoral loss? We will find out very, very shortly." Alas, it has not been all that very "shortly", as once again we underestimated people's stupidity and willingness to pay the piper of a crumbling economic and monetary system. But our prediction is finally starting to come true. Spiegel has just released an article, which encapsulates what well over 50% of Germans think, who say that the time to let Greece loose, has come.