President Obama's Premature Victory Lap

Before President Obama takes his final victory lap with claims of creating the most robust employment recovery since the 1990’s, the data clearly suggests otherwise. Of course, if you ask the 37% that are no longer counted as part of the labor force, they will tell you the same thing.

Global Stocks Pressured By Weak Earnings, Rate Hike Concerns; Pound Jumps

Global stocks are pressured this morning after a plunge in the Thai stock market and currency on concerns about the king's health and Fed hikes coupled with some more bad news out of Samsung which cut profit estimates by a third, while European stocks are suffering after Swedish telecom giant Ericsson issued a profit warning, sending its shares plunging 17%.

Global Stocks Decline On Samsung Woes; Rising Dollar Pressures Oil

Global markets and US equity futures fell on Samsung Galaxy Note 7 contagion concern, while the dollar rose to its strongest level in 11 weeks and U.S. bonds declined as investors boosted wagers that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.

Key Events In The Coming Week

In the US focus will be on the market's reaction to the second presidential debate, FOMC Minutes but also retail sales, import and producer prices and Michigan sentiment. We also hear from various Fed speakers throughout the week, and Chair Yellen gives a keynote speech on Friday.

Small Business Survey Trips Economic Alarms

The problem for the Fed is that once again the window for a “rate hike” has likely closed. Economic uncertainty, deflationary threats, and market volatility will keep them boxed in for now. Unfortunately, the recent spike in LIBOR has likely already done a bigger job of tightening monetary policy than the Fed actually intended to do. This could cause problems in the not too distant future.

Dow Futures Slide Over 100 Points Despite Fed's Dovish Relent; Oil Drops On IEA Pessimism

After yesterday's torrid rally, which sent stocks higher the most in 2 months on the back of Lael Brainard surprisingly dovish comments, we have seen an unexpected profit-taking session overnight in ES, with US equity futures down 0.6%, driven largely by a renewed drop in oil prices which slid after the IEA said a surplus in global markets will last longer than initially estimated, persisting well into 2017 as reported previously.

Key Events In The Coming "Fed Blackout" Week

The spotlight turns to US data and Fed speakers ahead of the Fed blackout period this week. The BoE and SNB meet to decide policy but consensus expect no change from either. Elsewhere we get inflation data from the US, UK, Sweden & EZ (F), Q2 GDP from NZ & SW and labor market data from the UK & AU.

"Global Market Rout" - Bond Selloff Snowballs Into Stock Liquidations On "Stimulus Pullback" Fears

With traders in the US arriving at their desks, the global selling appears to be accelerating and as Bloomberg notes, "a selloff in fixed income is starting to snowball into a global market rout" driven by what Reuters dubbed "growing concerns that global central banks' commitment to the post-crisis orthodoxy of super-low interest rates and asset purchase programs may be waning."

"Trouble In Paradise" - Hopes Of Economic Growth Just Took A Beating

The ongoing misinterpretation and massaging of economic data to spin a positive view on the economy are fine and good. However, real economic recovery must start with the average American since consumption makes up nearly 70% of economic growth. While the current Administration and Federal Reserve promote policies that are supposed to create economic prosperity for all, the reality is that remains bottled up on Wall Street.

US Futures Flat; Bonds Rise, Dollar And Oil Slide Over US Productivity Collapse Fears

Following yesterday's muted action which saw the S&P500 close unchanged, it has been more of the same listless trading overnight, with US equity index futures little changed as the Nikkei fell on the back of a stronger Yen, while government bonds rose and European stocks reversed early gains following the BOE failed bond monetization operation. Crude oil dropped for a second day after Saudi Arabia told OPEC that it pumped a record 10.67 million barrels of oil a day,

Preview Of Key Events In The Coming Week

The coming week brings multiple macro data releases for July, including inflation, trade data, retail sales, IP, credit and money supply. A relatively light US data calendar next week with retail sales the main release on Friday but also import and producer prices and Michigan sentiment coming up. Retail sales will be closely watched to assess consumer spending growth for 3Q.

S&P To Open At New Record High As Commodities Rise, China Trade Disappoints

The meltup continues with the S&P500 set to open at new all time highs as futures rise 0.2% overnight, with European, Asian stocks higher, as job data pushed MSCI Asia Pacific Index towards highest close since Aug. 2015. Germany, U.K. economic data seen positive, with dollar, oil rising, and gold declining. The MSCI All-Country World Index rose 0.4% and was headed for its highest close in almost a year.