NFIB

All Eyes On Yellen As Global Stocks Rebound Despite Brexit Fears, Record Low Yields

US equity index futures and global stocks rebounded for the first time in 6 days, ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s remarks, while Chinese manipulation prevented a selloff in Chinese stocks when MSCI refused to add the country to its EM index due to fears about... manipulation. Sterling has rebounded despite ongoing Brexit doom and gloom. Oil is the only key commodity that has failed to stage a modest rebound, while gold is down alongside the dollar, just because.

Soaring Brexit Fears Spark Global Flight To Safety, Send 10 Year Bunds Tumbling Below 0%

The UK EU referendum is suddenly totally dominant in financial markets. The increased focus comes as the leave campaign has gathered steam as 4 polls yesterday afternoon/evening put the 'leave' campaign ahead. As a result of the continued global scramble for safety, German 10Y bunds finally dropped below 0% for the first time ever, while global risk assets are red around the globe.

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week

This week, the market's attention will be mostly focused on this week's two key central bank meetings, namely the Fed on Wednesday and the BOJ on Thursday, although there is a full calendar of economic events also on deck.

3 Things: Recession Risks, Coming Corrections, & GDP Guesses

“But we clearly aren’t in a recession.” True, but that is only because we have not yet gotten the annual revisions to the economic data. Given the weakness in profits and revenues, a reflection of real economic activity, those revisions will likely be negative.

"Wussification Of America" Reaches Wall Street: Everyone Gets A Trophy As 91% "Beat" Estimates

When it came to sports, the “wussification” of America came to fruition with the idea there should be no “losers,” and keeping “score” was simply a means to discriminate against those who were “athletically challenged.”  Everyone gets a trophy. Unfortunately, the same has become true with Wall Street. In the latest earnings season related nonsense, we have seen the “wussification of Wall Street.”

US Futures, European Stocks Drop As USDJPY Tumbles

One day after the biggest jump in stocks in two months on what has still been an undetermined catalyst, overnight global equities did a U-turn with European stocks falling toward a one-month low and U.S. stock index futures declining, as crude oil dropped toward $44 a barrel. A driver the move lower was a sharp reversal in the USDJPY which dropped 100 pips from yesterday's highs which took places just as Goldman predicted the USDJPY has finally bottomed, facilitated by a weaker dollar (also following a Goldman report yesterday forecasting the USD was about to surge).

Global Stocks Jump; Oil Rises As Yen Plunges After Another Japanese FX Intervention Threat

In what has been an approximate repeat of the Monday overnight session, global stocks and US futures rose around the world as oil prices climbed toward $44 a barrel, with risk-sentiment pushed higher by another plunge in the Yen which has now soared 300 pips since the Friday post-payroll kneejerk reaction, and was trading above 109.20 this morning. At the same time base metals regained some of Monday’s steep losses following Chinese CPI data that came in line while PPI declined for 50 consecutive months however showed a modest rebound from the prior month on the back of China's recent, and now burst, speculative commodity bubble.

Key U.S. Events In The Coming Week

In the traditional post payrolls data lull, we’re kicking off what’s set to be a much quieter week for data this week with nothing of note due to be released in the US on Monday, however the week picks up with notable economic dataon NFIB small business cofidence, Import prices, PPI and culminates with Friday's retail sales report, UMichigan sentiment and business inventories.

Cycles, Bounces, & The Only Question That Matters

Unfortunately, when central-planners "drag forward" future consumption today, you leave a "void" in the future that must be filled. That future "void" continues to expand each time activity is dragged forward until, inevitably, it can not be filled. This is currently being witnessed in the overall data trends as seen in the deterioration in corporate earnings and revenues. The only question is whether Central Banks can continue to support asset prices long enough for the economic cycle to catch up. Historically, such is a feat that has never been accomplished.

US Economy - Ongoing Distortions

The economy’s capital structure remains imbalanced as a result of the enormous amount of monetary pumping since 2008 (total TMS-2 growth since then: approx. 128%). There is a limit to this though, even if it cannot be quantified. What can be stated though is that the greater the boom, the greater the eventual bust usually is. There are now more and more indications that a decisive inflection point may be quite near.

Who Said It: "There Is No Exuberance, No Optimism And Not Much Hope"

NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg cautioned that the small business sector is currently “underperforming, doing little more than operating in maintenance mode.” Although there has been “slow economic growth,” he warned that “there is no exuberance, no optimism and not much hope, the numbers make it clear.”

Futures Jump On Chinese Trade Data; Oil Declines; Global Stocks Turn Green For 2016

With oil losing some of its euphoric oomph overnight, following the API report of a surge in US oil inventories, and a subsequent report that Iran's oil minister would skip the Doha OPEC meeting altogether, the global stock rally needed another catalyst to maintain the levitation. It got that courtesy of the return of USDJPY levitation, which has pushed the pair back above 109, the highest in over a week, as well as a boost in sentiment from the previously reported Chinese trade data where exports rose the most in over a year, however much of the bounce was due to a favorable base effect from last year's decline. Additionally, as RBC reported, the 116.5% y/y increase in China’s reported March imports from HK likely reflects the growing trend of "over-invoicing", which is merely another form of capital outflow.

How Wall Street's Biggest Permabull Became Its Go To Permabear

Ever since the beginning of 2016 and especially in the last few weeks, while Hugh Hendry has been chugging horse doses of blue pills, Joe LaVorgna has finally discovered the red pill, and perhaps because he has been focusing a little to much on the performance of the stock price of his employer, or for whatever other reason, gradually Wall Street's biggest bull has mutated into its most outspoken bear.

Futures Rebound On Weaker Yen; Oil Hits 2016 Highs

In recent days, we have observed a distinct trading pattern: a ramp early in the US morning, usually triggered by some aggressive momentum ignition, such as today's unexplained pump then dump in the EURUSD with stocks rising after the European open, rising throughout the US open, then peaking around the time the US closed at which point it is all downhill for the illiquid market. So far today, the pattern has held, and after trading flat for most of the overnight session, with Europe initially in the red perhaps on disappointment about the Italy bank bailout fund, a bout of early Europe-open associated buying pushed US futures up, following the first rebound in the USDJPY after 7 days of declines which also helped the Nikkei close 1.1% higher.