NFIB

Stunned Global Markets Wake Up To President Trump

As it dawned on markets that they had been caught dead wrong for the second time in half a year, first with Brexit and then with the historic election of Donald Trump, their reaction was identical: a slow selloff at first, followed by a furious dump, which led to a limit down halt in NASDAQ and Emini future trading. However, turbulence calmed as investors reassessed the effects of Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the U.S. presidential election.

The Day Arrives: Global Stocks Higher, US Futures Lower As America Begins Voting

The day has finally arrived and as of minutes ago voters in eastern states have begun voting for the next US president. Polls are open in eight states, including battlegrounds Virginia and New Hampshire, as well as in New York, where Clinton votes at a public school in Chappaqua, Trump at a public school in Manhattan.

Key Events In The Coming Presidential Election Week

The US election this Tuesday is the main focus of the week. The key economic release this week is University of Michigan consumer sentiment on Friday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. 

President Obama's Premature Victory Lap

Before President Obama takes his final victory lap with claims of creating the most robust employment recovery since the 1990’s, the data clearly suggests otherwise. Of course, if you ask the 37% that are no longer counted as part of the labor force, they will tell you the same thing.

Global Stocks Pressured By Weak Earnings, Rate Hike Concerns; Pound Jumps

Global stocks are pressured this morning after a plunge in the Thai stock market and currency on concerns about the king's health and Fed hikes coupled with some more bad news out of Samsung which cut profit estimates by a third, while European stocks are suffering after Swedish telecom giant Ericsson issued a profit warning, sending its shares plunging 17%.

Global Stocks Decline On Samsung Woes; Rising Dollar Pressures Oil

Global markets and US equity futures fell on Samsung Galaxy Note 7 contagion concern, while the dollar rose to its strongest level in 11 weeks and U.S. bonds declined as investors boosted wagers that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.

Key Events In The Coming Week

In the US focus will be on the market's reaction to the second presidential debate, FOMC Minutes but also retail sales, import and producer prices and Michigan sentiment. We also hear from various Fed speakers throughout the week, and Chair Yellen gives a keynote speech on Friday.

Small Business Survey Trips Economic Alarms

The problem for the Fed is that once again the window for a “rate hike” has likely closed. Economic uncertainty, deflationary threats, and market volatility will keep them boxed in for now. Unfortunately, the recent spike in LIBOR has likely already done a bigger job of tightening monetary policy than the Fed actually intended to do. This could cause problems in the not too distant future.

Dow Futures Slide Over 100 Points Despite Fed's Dovish Relent; Oil Drops On IEA Pessimism

After yesterday's torrid rally, which sent stocks higher the most in 2 months on the back of Lael Brainard surprisingly dovish comments, we have seen an unexpected profit-taking session overnight in ES, with US equity futures down 0.6%, driven largely by a renewed drop in oil prices which slid after the IEA said a surplus in global markets will last longer than initially estimated, persisting well into 2017 as reported previously.

Key Events In The Coming "Fed Blackout" Week

The spotlight turns to US data and Fed speakers ahead of the Fed blackout period this week. The BoE and SNB meet to decide policy but consensus expect no change from either. Elsewhere we get inflation data from the US, UK, Sweden & EZ (F), Q2 GDP from NZ & SW and labor market data from the UK & AU.

"Global Market Rout" - Bond Selloff Snowballs Into Stock Liquidations On "Stimulus Pullback" Fears

With traders in the US arriving at their desks, the global selling appears to be accelerating and as Bloomberg notes, "a selloff in fixed income is starting to snowball into a global market rout" driven by what Reuters dubbed "growing concerns that global central banks' commitment to the post-crisis orthodoxy of super-low interest rates and asset purchase programs may be waning."