NFIB

"Trouble In Paradise" - Hopes Of Economic Growth Just Took A Beating

The ongoing misinterpretation and massaging of economic data to spin a positive view on the economy are fine and good. However, real economic recovery must start with the average American since consumption makes up nearly 70% of economic growth. While the current Administration and Federal Reserve promote policies that are supposed to create economic prosperity for all, the reality is that remains bottled up on Wall Street.

US Futures Flat; Bonds Rise, Dollar And Oil Slide Over US Productivity Collapse Fears

Following yesterday's muted action which saw the S&P500 close unchanged, it has been more of the same listless trading overnight, with US equity index futures little changed as the Nikkei fell on the back of a stronger Yen, while government bonds rose and European stocks reversed early gains following the BOE failed bond monetization operation. Crude oil dropped for a second day after Saudi Arabia told OPEC that it pumped a record 10.67 million barrels of oil a day,

Preview Of Key Events In The Coming Week

The coming week brings multiple macro data releases for July, including inflation, trade data, retail sales, IP, credit and money supply. A relatively light US data calendar next week with retail sales the main release on Friday but also import and producer prices and Michigan sentiment coming up. Retail sales will be closely watched to assess consumer spending growth for 3Q.

S&P To Open At New Record High As Commodities Rise, China Trade Disappoints

The meltup continues with the S&P500 set to open at new all time highs as futures rise 0.2% overnight, with European, Asian stocks higher, as job data pushed MSCI Asia Pacific Index towards highest close since Aug. 2015. Germany, U.K. economic data seen positive, with dollar, oil rising, and gold declining. The MSCI All-Country World Index rose 0.4% and was headed for its highest close in almost a year.

Global Stocks, Futures Rise On Disappointing Chinese Trade Data, Hopes For More Central Bank Intervention

In an otherwise quiet overnight session, which among other things saw Germany sell 10Y Bunds with a zero coupon and a negative yield (-0.05%) for the first time ever (despite being uncovered with just €4.038BN sold below the €5.00BN target) anyone hoping for a confirmation that China will be able to prop up the world economy once more, was left disappointed when earlier this morning China reported June exports and imports that once again dropped substantially in dollar terms as soft demand at home and abroad continued to weigh on the world’s largest trading nation.

Global Stocks Surge On Rising Hopes Of Japan "Helicopter Money"

A quick headline search for the phrases "Japan stimulus" and "helicopter money" is all one needs to understand the very familiar reason for today latest overnight global stock rally, which has sent the USDJPY surging some more, in the process pushing the Nikkei higher by 2.5%, China up over 1% (with the help of some late FX intervention by the PBOC), European stocks up 1%, US equity futures up 0.5%, and so on, in what is a global wave of green on the back of the helicopter money which after Bernanke's visit to Japan, market participants are now convinced is just a matter of time.

Key Events In The Coming Week

With the key event of the week flying largely under the radar, which as previewed here last week was Bernanke's visit to Japan which has already led to another global market spike, here are the rest of the week's events.

Just 3 Things

Based on the fact that the P/S ratio has been steadily rising and has eclipsed prior peaks, we are left to select from one of two conclusions: that investors are extremely optimistic about the potential for revenue growth; or investors are once again caught in the grasp of bubble mentality and willing to pay huge premiums to avoid missing out on further gains. However, the means of magically boosting these asset prices are 'finite' in nature and eventually the "devil will be paid his due."

All Eyes On Yellen As Global Stocks Rebound Despite Brexit Fears, Record Low Yields

US equity index futures and global stocks rebounded for the first time in 6 days, ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s remarks, while Chinese manipulation prevented a selloff in Chinese stocks when MSCI refused to add the country to its EM index due to fears about... manipulation. Sterling has rebounded despite ongoing Brexit doom and gloom. Oil is the only key commodity that has failed to stage a modest rebound, while gold is down alongside the dollar, just because.

Soaring Brexit Fears Spark Global Flight To Safety, Send 10 Year Bunds Tumbling Below 0%

The UK EU referendum is suddenly totally dominant in financial markets. The increased focus comes as the leave campaign has gathered steam as 4 polls yesterday afternoon/evening put the 'leave' campaign ahead. As a result of the continued global scramble for safety, German 10Y bunds finally dropped below 0% for the first time ever, while global risk assets are red around the globe.

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week

This week, the market's attention will be mostly focused on this week's two key central bank meetings, namely the Fed on Wednesday and the BOJ on Thursday, although there is a full calendar of economic events also on deck.

3 Things: Recession Risks, Coming Corrections, & GDP Guesses

“But we clearly aren’t in a recession.” True, but that is only because we have not yet gotten the annual revisions to the economic data. Given the weakness in profits and revenues, a reflection of real economic activity, those revisions will likely be negative.

"Wussification Of America" Reaches Wall Street: Everyone Gets A Trophy As 91% "Beat" Estimates

When it came to sports, the “wussification” of America came to fruition with the idea there should be no “losers,” and keeping “score” was simply a means to discriminate against those who were “athletically challenged.”  Everyone gets a trophy. Unfortunately, the same has become true with Wall Street. In the latest earnings season related nonsense, we have seen the “wussification of Wall Street.”

US Futures, European Stocks Drop As USDJPY Tumbles

One day after the biggest jump in stocks in two months on what has still been an undetermined catalyst, overnight global equities did a U-turn with European stocks falling toward a one-month low and U.S. stock index futures declining, as crude oil dropped toward $44 a barrel. A driver the move lower was a sharp reversal in the USDJPY which dropped 100 pips from yesterday's highs which took places just as Goldman predicted the USDJPY has finally bottomed, facilitated by a weaker dollar (also following a Goldman report yesterday forecasting the USD was about to surge).