NFIB

The Honeymoon Is Over: Goldman Slams Trump's Economic Plan, No Longer Expects A Border Tax

"One month into the year, the balance of risks is somewhat less positive for three reasons. First, the difficulty congressional Republicans have had in moving forward on Obamacare; Second, while bipartisan cooperation looked possible following the election, the political environment appears to be as polarized as ever; Third, some of the recent actions by the Trump Administration could be disruptive for financial markets and the real economy." - Goldman Sachs

Goldman: "All Our Clients Are Confused And Unsettled"

'"Unsettled” is our best description of fund managers’ mindset as the new administration takes office. During an extensive series of client meetings in the US, Europe and Asia, it became apparent that investors are confused about how to best position portfolios under a Trump presidency.'

The US Economy: Back On Track?

The weekly rail traffic report published by the Association of American Railroads provides a great snapshot of US economic activity almost in real (weekly) time. Last July we noted that we were starting to witness some signals of a trend change, now suggesting a softening. But much has happened since then, including a broadly unexpected change in the political direction of the US. Have those signals been reversed as a result?

Just 3 Things

Importantly, with economic growth anemic, consumers stretched and an economy heading into one of the longest post-recessionary expansions on record, there is little room for a policy misstep at this juncture. Maybe Trump will be wildly successful and the economy will come roaring back. That is a possibility. But there is also the risk it won’t. Optimism is one thing. Your personal capital and financial health is quite another.

Key Events In The Coming Week: All Eyes On Trump

The main economic release this week is US retail sales, ECB minutes and a series of Chinese economic releases. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including a webcast address by Chair Yellen on Thursday. However, the highlight of the upcoming first full week of 2017 might well be President-elect Trump's first news conference on Wednesday since his election win.

Party Like The Dow Is 19,999: US Futures Dip As Global Currencies Stumble; Oil Down, Gold Up

European, Asian stocks fall and U.S. equity-index futures traded mixed on Monday with fresh memories of the Dow Jones rising to under 1 point of 20,000 on Friday. The dollar has rebounded on fresh geopolitical concerns, while the pound extends its decline from Friday and has slide to 10 week lows on a Sunday interview from Theresa May which suggested a "Hard Brexit" may be in the cards.

With All Eyes On The Fed, Stocks And Crude Slip, Bonds Rise

European stocks slipped from an 11 month high, Asian stocks and S&P futures were flat as caution pervades global markets before the Federal Reserve’s expected interest-rate hike on Wednesday. Treasuries slipped, after reaching the highest level in more than two years. Oil in New York slid to near $52 a barrel after API showed a build in inventories, and currencies of commodity-exporting nations fell. Gold headed for its biggest gain in a week.

Despite Post-Election Spike In Optimism, Small Business Owners Have Never Been More 'Uncertain'

Small Business Optimism was "basically unchanged from October's reading up to the point of the election and then rose dramatically after the results of the election were known," according to NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg. In fact the surge was the sharpest since 2009 as the balance of those who thought business conditions would improve exploded from -6 to +38. However, actual sales continue to decline and "business uncertainty" has never been higher.

Stunned Global Markets Wake Up To President Trump

As it dawned on markets that they had been caught dead wrong for the second time in half a year, first with Brexit and then with the historic election of Donald Trump, their reaction was identical: a slow selloff at first, followed by a furious dump, which led to a limit down halt in NASDAQ and Emini future trading. However, turbulence calmed as investors reassessed the effects of Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the U.S. presidential election.

The Day Arrives: Global Stocks Higher, US Futures Lower As America Begins Voting

The day has finally arrived and as of minutes ago voters in eastern states have begun voting for the next US president. Polls are open in eight states, including battlegrounds Virginia and New Hampshire, as well as in New York, where Clinton votes at a public school in Chappaqua, Trump at a public school in Manhattan.