Niall Ferguson

Why Presidents Campaign On Peace But Rule By War

"Indeed, it is easy to write off Trump, Obama, and Bush as lying and hypocritical warmongers, fair enough. It is also easy to apologize for their actions as fallible men reacting to complex events the best they can... However, rather than simply criticizing or apologizing for presidents, again, it is time we ask why recent presidents have pursued war despite their professed humility, aspirations, and instincts."

Europe Is Committing Demographic Suicide

"Muslim believers know very well that their fertility is such today, that they call it... the Great Replacement. They tell you in a very calm, very positive way: One day all this, all this will be ours..." - Luc Ravel, The Archbishop of Strasbourg.

Weekend Reading: Trump-eting Dow 20,000

We can only surmise how this eventually turns out. But whether it is extremely suppressed volatility, extreme long positions in small-cap stocks or historical short positions in bonds, the “rubber band” is stretched very tightly. Of course, while “Trump-xuberance” currently reigns, there seems to be nothing to worry about. But then again, maybe that is exactly what we should be worrying about.

Will The Fed Start Reducing Its Balance Sheet? Here Is Goldman's Answer

"We would be very surprised to see a discussion of asset sales under Chair Yellen’s leadership, but a shift to more active management of the maturity of new Treasury purchases could be an option; shortening the duration of new purchases would quicken portfolio runoff once it begins." - Goldman Sachs

Trump Takes On The Deep State

"The deep state" is shorthand for a force within Washington that is able to guide the US' ship of state over periods of time longer than presidential terms, and at times despite the stated intentions of elected officials. If Trump has indeed embroiled himself in a conflict with this entity, then, what does that mean for his policy plans and for the post-Inauguration markets?

Our Impoverished, Pathological Society

Our inner impoverishment has blinded us to our social impoverishment. In terms of authentic opportunities to contribute and belong, we are poor indeed...

A Post Western World? A Disturbing Interview With Prof. Harry Redner - Part 2

The political and economic issues broadly discussed in the media usually revolve around political cycles, terrorism, foreign policy, rising debt levels, sluggish economic performance, academic underachievement, environmental problems, ageing demographics and so forth. In our view, this all ties into a major cycle of history that has been with us for some time, and which has been gaining traction since the 1990s: the end of "Western Civilization" and the transition towards a globalized society.

The Algos Are Winning Again (In Trading The Brexit Chaos)

As we warned heading into the Brexit vote, it appeared that many human investors had quite a bit of misplaced confidence in the Remain vote, and it ultimately turned out that we were right. It also turns out that the algos have traded the event better than humans as well.

Gold More Productive Than Cash?!

Is gold, often scoffed at as being an unproductive asset, more productive than cash? If so, what does it mean for asset allocation?