A rally in global risk that started during last night's first presidential debate on the market's take that Hillary came out on top fizzled, following news that the DOJ is assessing how big a criminal fine it can extract from Volkswagen (-3.8%) over emissions-cheating "without putting the German carmaker out of business", while Iran's oil minister Zanganeh told reporters Iran is ununwilling to freeze output at current levels. Deutsche Bank dropped to a new all time low while its default risk hit fresh record highs.
While today's biggest event for both markets and politics will be tonight's highly anticipated first presidential debate between Trump and Hillary, markets are waking up to some early turmoil in both Asia and Europe, with declines in banks and energy producers dragging down stock-markets around the world, pushing investors to once again seek the safety of government bonds and the yen.
On November 8th, the US Presidential election will take place. Below Bank of America lists eight trades, all specific to the election, some applicable to whoever wins, some dependent on the election result:
After Wednesday’s policy statements by the Fed and Bank of Japan, a harsh light is being shined on the incredible nature of their communications. It would be wise in the current environment to structure investment portfolios with a pro-volatility bias.
Until minutes ago, this week's rebound in global equities appeared to be running out of steam as oil retreated from a two-week high and a dollar slide ended. However, as noted just around 6am, Reuters reported, citing as it usually does various "anonymous sources", that in a radical departure from its long-held policy of not cutting production, Saudi Arabia was prepared to cut production on condition that Iran freezes output, which led to an instant spike in crude.
Japan “is the best short in the world at the moment,” according to Shannon McConaghy's Horseman Capital who said that "I don’t have a price target, but I suspect that over the next few years, a number of banks will go to zero - as in bankrupt.”
"It is very unclear at this time exactly how the BOJ intends to “control” the yield curve in the future. The question is how it will control the overall level and shape of the curve when financial and economic conditions change in the future."
While the BOJ may have disappointed with its latest iteration of monetary policy, now known as "QQE with Curve Control", Asian and European stocks as well as U.S. equity index futures rallied in early trading perhaps on the back of the bounce in the USDJPY which has now completely faded.
Just after midnight east coast time, the BOJ presented its new and improved monetary policy dubbed “QQE with Yield Curve Control,” in which the central bank said it would buy JGBs such that 10-year yield remain at the current level of around zero percent. The BOJ will also buy JGBs at designated yields, and generally steepen the curve even as it failed to lower rates or add more QE. Wall Street took one look at what the BOJ came up with... and hated it immediately.
The BOJ disappointed by unveiling a lackluster package that sent stocks lower and JPY higher initially - bigger ETF buying, maintains rates (no easing), maintains bond-buying (no easing), unveils "yield curve control" (steepens curve but crushes bank balance sheets through long bond MTM losses). But then offered some hope by noting that the monetary base may fluctuate to achieve yield-curve control (which markets liked as it implies the possibility of more easing).
The BOJ does have a track record of surprising markets. If it doesn’t want to see USD/JPY collapse, exacerbating the nation’s economic struggles, then it needs to ensure the shock is a dovish one this time. Which maybe what the banks are negatively expecting...Even as Goldman warns "don't expect much if anything, at all."
If yesterday one could "explain" the overnight stock levitation due to the move higher in crude oil, today there is no such catalyst with WTI down modestly, and yet the broader push higher across European stocks and US equities has reappeared following yesterday's muted close on Wall Street ahead of key central bank data on deck.
At the BOJ's next Monetary Policy Meeting on September 20-21, the Central Bank will conduct a “comprehensive assessment” of trends in economic activity and prices under the current policy framework, as well as the policy impact, with a view to achieving its 2% price stability target at the earliest possible time. Here is what to expect from next week's main event.
Following yesterday's paradoxical US stock surge catalyzed by a bevy of bad macroeonomic news, the overnight session has seen some good old "risk off" mood which hit European shares as a result of the previously reported $14 billion DOJ claim against Deutsche Bank, which sent Europe's biggest bank tumbling, dragging the banking sector lower, while a continued drop in the price of oil pushed energy companies lower.