Nominal GDP

Albert Edwards: This Is The Reason Why The Market Doesn't Believe The Fed Any More

"One reason why the market doesn't believe the Fed dots is that investors cannot conceive of Fed tightening to the point that it causes the stockmarket any serious damage. Time and time again over both this and previous cycles the Fed has backed off rate hikes as soon as the going got tough. Maybe that is why the S&P trades at such a huge PE premium to the rest of the world."

Paul Brodsky: "Stagflation On The Horizon"

Logic and current trends suggest that declining output growth accompanied by higher prices will begin hitting economies and facing policy makers in the coming years. Markets should begin sniffing out this stagflationary macroeconomic setup this year.

People Are Suddenly Worried About China (Again)

While Trump seemingly remains the only topic worthy of discussion blanketing the airwaves, as the following chart from Goldman demonstrates, it has been China where policy uncertainty has stealthily exploded in the past three months.

The Mother Of All Financial Bubbles: "This Is The Very Definition Of Unsustainable"

"The Fed is desperately seeking to keep the status quo in place, praying that somehow things turn out OK, and clearly scared to death behind the scenes. But, just like the officials at Oroville, when the cameras are on her, Yellen smiles and tells us that all is well... But when these bubbles burst, and they must, it will be a massively destructive event. There will literally be nowhere to hide from the repercussions."

Trump And Abe Joint Press Conference: Highlights And Live Feed

Ahead of a weekend playing golf together at Mar-a-Lago, President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Abe face the press to explain how a strong (and weak) currency is good (and bad) for the economy, how much Abe will be investing in American infrastructure, and how they will face their real common enemy - China (not deflation) together...

The Lowest Common Denominator

More debt and less discipline is not the solution to a pre-existing condition characterized by the same. The price tag for failing to acknowledge and address that reality rises exponentially over time.

Why Ben Bernanke Thinks The Fed Shouldn't Shrink Its Balance Sheet

"The best approach is to allow a passive runoff of maturing assets, without attempting to vary the pace of rundown for policy purposes. Even with such a cautious approach, the effects of initiating a reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet are uncertain. Accordingly, it would be prudent not to initiate that process until the short-term interest rate is safely away from the effective lower bound."

Trump's Delusion: Halting Eurasian Integration And Saving 'US World Order'

The global hegemonic project that was supposed to be realized with a Clinton presidency has been stopped. The inevitable military confrontation with Russia, Iran and China has been averted and the future multipolar world order, historically unstable, will in fact hold the promise of stability thanks to the actions of opposing nations to the American superpower. United they will stabilize the world.

Fiat Money, Fiat News

Gresham’s Law: bad money drives good money out of circulation.

Hunt’s Law: fake news drives real news out of circulation.

It's The Dollar, Stupid!

We expect global monetary authorities to protect the dollar as long as they can and we expect them to fail. Stocks and bonds will react violently; stocks and weak credits falling, treasuries prices rising (at first). That failure will lead to hyperinflation – not driven by demand, but rather by central bank money printing. A new global monetary understanding will then emerge.

The Bears Are Dying: Even Bob Janjuah Turns (Somewhat) Bullish

"The trends over H1 2017 should be higher (especially US) equities and yields, steeper curves, a stronger USD, and mixed performance in credit (especially in the IG sphere) and EM. So for me, most likely over the middle two quarters of 2017, I can see the S&P 500 cash index up at 2450 +/- 50 points, with the Nasdaq weakest and the Dow strongest of the big three US indices."