Nominal GDP

BIll Gross: Beware The "Unknown Consequences Lurking In The Shadows"

"the adherence of Yellen, Bernanke, Draghi, and Kuroda, among others, to standard historical models such as the Taylor Rule and the Phillips curve has distorted capitalism as we once knew it, with unknown consequences lurking in the shadows of future years."

Stockman On Peak Bull: Fake Economy And Fake News

"The American economy has been mangled by decades of assault on capitalist prosperity... Our overall economy has now reached a point of peak debt. The peak bull has now arrived and it is utterly unsafe to be in the casino."

When A "Black Swan" Will No Longer Do: China Warns Beware The "Gray Rhino"

In surprisingly stark commentary, China issued a warning that the economy finds itself in a backdrop of growing enterprise debt, an overheating real estate market, and overcapacity in such sectors as low-end manufacturing, and cautioned investors that a "gray rhino" may be coming.

Weekend Reading: Oil & Retail Send A Warning

There are two important areas of the market that have historically been good leading indicators of the strength, or weakness, of the markets and the economy... Oil and retail.

7 Myths Of Investing

"There are no sidelines. Those saying this seem to envision a seller of stocks moving her money to cash and awaiting a chance to return. But they always ignore that this seller sold to somebody, who presumably moved a precisely equal amount of cash off the sidelines."

Citi's Sentiment Indicator Crashes, And Four Other Things That Scare The Bank

Citi's "news implied sentiment indicator" has plunged sharply into bearish territory in the latest print, to its lowest level in 18 months since January 2016. According to Citi, the latest print in NISI suggests "renewed skew towards pessimistic sentiment and thus looking at past correlations to the NISI, Citi warns that the SPX may fall relative to trend for a period on this measure."

BofA: "Central Banks Are Now In A Desperate Dilemma"..."Start Buying Volatility"

"Central banks, the reason behind high asset prices and low vol, are now in desperate dilemma: politically unacceptable for bubble on Wall St, but central banks will be tightening into deflation; inflection point for volatility is upon us and we recommend investors buy volatility....Fed tightening in 2017 could easily be followed by easing in 2018, in our view."

Credit Card Defaults Surge Most Since Financial Crisis

The steep increase in credit card defaults in 1Q’17 and 4Q’16 was the largest since 2009, according to a report by Moody's, which suggests that the US consumer is getting progressively weaker and is unable to support the spending needed to keep the US economy afloat.