Nominal GDP

Stockman On America's Fiscal Sundown, Part 1

"The Senate Finance Committee tax bill is not supply side and it's not even a tax cut; it's a gimmick-ridden policy mongrel that smells to high heaven of political desperation and cynicism."

Stockman Slams "The Awesome Recovery" Narrative

"In the face of blatant dangers and even existential threats, the denizens of the Acela Corridor whistle past the graveyard with alacrity. So doing, they turn a blind eye on virtually all that contradicts the awesome recovery narrative, the indispensable nation conceit and the Washington can Make America Great Again (MAGA) delusion, among countless other fantasies."

Can Gradual Interest-Rate Tightening Prevent A Bust?

"Regardless of policy transparency once a tighter monetary stance is introduced, it sets in motion an economic bust. The severity of the bust is conditioned by the length and magnitude of the previous loose monetary stance and the state of the pool of real savings."

The 4 Possible Channels For A Chinese Financial Crisis

An analysis by Victor Shih of Merics lays out 4 plausible scenarios of financial crisis in China: household defaults, shadow banking panic, capital flight, and a sudden stop of international lending. It finds that China’s greatest vulnerability resides in its dwindling foreign exchange reserve and escalating external debt, which can trigger a confluence of maxi-devaluation, external defaults, and sharp asset price depreciation.

Buffett's Wrong - Why Market Valuations Are Not Justified By Low Interest Rates

"It's such a comforting, even satisfying assumption; the idea that 'lower interest rates justify higher valuations'...   Unfortunately, the convenience of investing-by-slogan is currently leading investors into what is likely to be one of the worst disasters in the history of the U.S. stock market..."