Nominal GDP

Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Central Banks Will Not Be Able to Halt This Economic Collapse

Stripped of accounting gimmicks, real GDP growth shows economic collapse. And it will culminate in another stock market crash.

Tyler Durden's picture

The Cost Of China's "Manipulated Market Stability" May Be Too High, BofAML Warns

How much did the PBoC spend propping up China's stock market in Q3? By how much did they overpay? How likely are they to take an outsized loss? BofAML takes a look.

Tyler Durden's picture

Bring On 'Operation Switch' - Bill Gross Calls For A Reverse 'Operation Twist' To "Benefit Savers And The Economy"

"But they won’t, you know. Yellen and Draghi believe in the Taylor model and the Phillips curve. Gresham’s law will be found in the history books, but his corollary has little chance of making it into future economic textbooks. The result will likely be a continued imbalance between savings and investment, a yield curve too flat to support historic business models, and an anemic 1-2% rate of real economic growth in even the most robust developed countries."

Tyler Durden's picture

'Lipstick'-ing The GDP Pig Amid An Epochal Global Deflationary Swoon

The talking heads were busy this week powdering the GDP pig. By averaging up the “disappointing” 1.5% gain for Q3 with the previous quarter they were able to pronounce that the economy is moving forward at an “encouraging” 2% clip. And once we get through this quarter’s big negative inventory adjustment, they insisted, we will be off to the ‘escape velocity’ races. Again. No we won’t! The global economy is in an epochal deflationary swoon and the US economy has already hit stall speed. It is only a matter of months before this long-in-the-tooth 75-month old business expansion will rollover into outright liquidation of excess inventories and hoarded labor. That is otherwise known as a recession.

Tyler Durden's picture

The Dire Societal Consequences Of Stability-Obsessed Keynesians

We will be the first to admit that yield curve inversion is not the only factor causing recessions, but through the credit channel it can be an important contributor. Depending on the importance of the credit channel, the Federal Reserve, by pegging the short term rate at zero, have essentially removed one recessionary market mechanism that used to efficiently clear excesses within the financial system. While stability obsessed Keynesians on a quest to the permanent boom regard this as a positive development, the rest of us obviously understand that false stability breeds instability.


Tyler Durden's picture

Futures Fade Overnight Ramp After BOJ Disappoints, Attention Returns To Hawkish Fed

Back in September we explained why, contrary to both conventional wisdom and the BOJ's endless protests to the contrary, neither the BOJ nor the ECB have any interest in boosting QE at this - or any other point - simply because with every incremental bond they buy, the time when the two central banks run out of monetizable debt comes closer. Since then the ECB has jawboned that it may boost QE (but it has not done so), and overnight as reported previously, the BOJ likewise did not expand QE despite many, including Goldman Sachs, expecting it would do just that.

Tyler Durden's picture

We Now Have An ETA When The Biggest Bond Bubble In The World Will Burst

"On the current trajectory, we doubt the market can stay stable beyond a few quarters, especially if some SOE and/or LGFV bonds indeed default."
- Bank of America

Tyler Durden's picture

China's Red Capitalism Is The New Black Swan

From the bowels of Australia’s iron ore mines to the top of Dubai’s pointless 100 story office towers, the entire warp and woof of the global economy has been distorted and bloated by the central bank money printing spree of the last two decades, led by the red credit machines of Beijing. Everywhere economies have succumbed to over-building, over-consumption, over-financialization and endless dangerous, unstable speculation. Stated differently, China’s red capitalism is the new black swan. There is nothing rational, stable or sustainable about it.

Tyler Durden's picture

Chinese Economists Have No Faith In 7% Growth "Target"

"My expectation is that under President Xi's term, average growth rates are unlikely to exceed three to four percent. And that's not my prediction, that's the upper limit of my prediction."

Tyler Durden's picture

The Truth Behind China's GDP Mirage: Economic Growth Slows To 1999 Levels

For the second time this year, China's GDP deflator turned negative, meaning that in addition to any deliberate misrepresentations, Beijing may also be overstating GDP by way of a statistical shortcoming. Ultimately, they're habitually understating inflation for domestic output which means that "real" GDP is probably less "real" than nominal GDP. 

Tyler Durden's picture

Short Squeeze, Liquidity, Margin Debt & Deflation

Some things you CAN see coming, in life and certainly in finance. Quite a few things, actually. Once you understand we’re on a long term downward path, also both in life and in finance, and you’re not exclusively looking at short term gains, it all sort of falls into place. Of course, the entire global economy has been hanging together with strands of duct tape for decades now, but hey, it looks good as long as you don’t take a peek behind the facade, right?

Tyler Durden's picture

The Endgame Takes Shape: "Banning Capitalism And Bypassing Capital Markets"

"We believe that the path of least resistance would be to effectively ban capitalism and by-pass banking and capital markets altogether. We gave this policy change several names (such as “Cuba alternative”, “British Leyland”) but the essence of the new form of QE would be using central banks and public instrumentalities to directly inject “heroin into blood stream” rather than relying on system of incentives to drive investor behaviour."

Tyler Durden's picture

"There Are Five Times More Claims On Dollars As Dollars In Existence" - Why This Matters

According to the Fed, there is about $60 trillion of US Dollar credit or claims for US dollars. Also according to the Fed, there are about $12 trillion US dollars.  So, the data show plainly there are five times as many claims for US dollars as US dollars in existence. Does this matter to investors? Well, yes, it matters a lot.

Tyler Durden's picture

Deflation Warning: The Next Wave

The signs of deflation are now flashing all over the globe and the possibility of an associated financial crisis is now dangerously high over the next few months. Our preferred model for how things are going to unfold follows the Ka-Poom! Theory, which states that this epic debt bubble will ultimately burst first by deflation (the "Ka!") before then exploding (the "Poom!") in hyperinflation due to additional massive money printing efforts by frightened global central bankers acting in unison. First an inwards collapse, then an outwards explosion.

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