Nominal GDP

People Are Suddenly Worried About China (Again)

While Trump seemingly remains the only topic worthy of discussion blanketing the airwaves, as the following chart from Goldman demonstrates, it has been China where policy uncertainty has stealthily exploded in the past three months.

The Mother Of All Financial Bubbles: "This Is The Very Definition Of Unsustainable"

"The Fed is desperately seeking to keep the status quo in place, praying that somehow things turn out OK, and clearly scared to death behind the scenes. But, just like the officials at Oroville, when the cameras are on her, Yellen smiles and tells us that all is well... But when these bubbles burst, and they must, it will be a massively destructive event. There will literally be nowhere to hide from the repercussions."

Trump And Abe Joint Press Conference: Highlights And Live Feed

Ahead of a weekend playing golf together at Mar-a-Lago, President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Abe face the press to explain how a strong (and weak) currency is good (and bad) for the economy, how much Abe will be investing in American infrastructure, and how they will face their real common enemy - China (not deflation) together...

The Lowest Common Denominator

More debt and less discipline is not the solution to a pre-existing condition characterized by the same. The price tag for failing to acknowledge and address that reality rises exponentially over time.

Why Ben Bernanke Thinks The Fed Shouldn't Shrink Its Balance Sheet

"The best approach is to allow a passive runoff of maturing assets, without attempting to vary the pace of rundown for policy purposes. Even with such a cautious approach, the effects of initiating a reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet are uncertain. Accordingly, it would be prudent not to initiate that process until the short-term interest rate is safely away from the effective lower bound."

Trump's Delusion: Halting Eurasian Integration And Saving 'US World Order'

The global hegemonic project that was supposed to be realized with a Clinton presidency has been stopped. The inevitable military confrontation with Russia, Iran and China has been averted and the future multipolar world order, historically unstable, will in fact hold the promise of stability thanks to the actions of opposing nations to the American superpower. United they will stabilize the world.

Fiat Money, Fiat News

Gresham’s Law: bad money drives good money out of circulation.

Hunt’s Law: fake news drives real news out of circulation.

It's The Dollar, Stupid!

We expect global monetary authorities to protect the dollar as long as they can and we expect them to fail. Stocks and bonds will react violently; stocks and weak credits falling, treasuries prices rising (at first). That failure will lead to hyperinflation – not driven by demand, but rather by central bank money printing. A new global monetary understanding will then emerge.

The Bears Are Dying: Even Bob Janjuah Turns (Somewhat) Bullish

"The trends over H1 2017 should be higher (especially US) equities and yields, steeper curves, a stronger USD, and mixed performance in credit (especially in the IG sphere) and EM. So for me, most likely over the middle two quarters of 2017, I can see the S&P 500 cash index up at 2450 +/- 50 points, with the Nasdaq weakest and the Dow strongest of the big three US indices."

Banks In Drag - The Russell 2000 Exposed

The recent appreciation in financials is apparently a response to the new administration’s planned policies that are generally viewed as beneficial for the financial sector.  Given the regulatory oppression of the past eight years, this may very well be a sound reason to own bank stocks. However, the R2K index is trading at grossly elevated levels. Owning the index for anything other than pure speculative trading is ridiculous. Owning the index for its bank exposure is insane.

Everything You Need To Know About The Italian Referendum (& Should Be Afraid To Ask)

While the post-Trump euphoria in US stocks has been the perfect distraction from the ugly realities elsewhere, this weekend's Italian Referendum could well be the biggest 'revolt' yet, topping Brexit and Trump. Should Italy vote "no", as polls forecast, PM Renzi may quit, leaving the Italian bank recapitalization would then be in jeopardy and, as Bloomberg's Mark Cranfield warns "we could be looking at a Greece-like market reaction on steroids."