Nominal GDP

Phoenix Capital Research's picture

The Coming Economic Collapse Will Crash Stocks





The media can try to hide reality all it wants. But an economic collapse is here. It will trigger another stock market crash just as it did in the early ’90s, the Tech Bubble, and the Housing Bubble. 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Five Reasons Why Credit Suisse Just Turned The Most Bearish On Stocks Since 2008





Overnight, Credit Suisse became the latest bank to join Goldman, JPM and increasingly more banks in predicting that 2016 will be a year in which investors will want to rotate out of equities. Specifically, the second largest Swiss bank said that it is "we reduce our equity weightings to our most cautious strategic stance since 2008 and take our mid-2016 S&P 500 target down to 2,150, the same as our end-2016 target." Here are the five reasons why CS just looked at the mounting wall of worry... and began to worry.

 
Gold Standard Institute's picture

Will a GDP Futures Market Be Liquid?





Scott Sumner said he had a “modest” proposal: there should be a highly liquid futures market in Nominal Gross Domestic Product. Let's look at that.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Lull Before The Storm - An Ideal Chance To Exit The Casino, Part 1





Last night’s Asia action brought another warning that the global deflation cycle is accelerating. Iron ore broke below $40 per ton for the first time since the central banks kicked off the world’s credit based growth binge two decades ago; it’s now down 40% this year and 80% from its 2011-212 peak. This implosion of demand cannot be remedied with another round of central bank money printing because the world is already at peak debt. Accordingly,  global corporate profit cycle is heading into a deep downturn, just as the equity markets go into a final spasm of levitation based on a handful of big cap stocks.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

To JPM, This Is The Alarming Chart Suggesting The Next Recession "Is Just Around The Corner"





"The US corporate financing gap – the difference between cash flow generation and spending on capex and dividends – has turned strongly negative. In the past, when the financing gap went strongly negative, the next downturn was just around the corner."

 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Central Banks Will Not Be Able to Halt This Economic Collapse





Stripped of accounting gimmicks, real GDP growth shows economic collapse. And it will culminate in another stock market crash.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Cost Of China's "Manipulated Market Stability" May Be Too High, BofAML Warns





How much did the PBoC spend propping up China's stock market in Q3? By how much did they overpay? How likely are they to take an outsized loss? BofAML takes a look.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Bring On 'Operation Switch' - Bill Gross Calls For A Reverse 'Operation Twist' To "Benefit Savers And The Economy"





"But they won’t, you know. Yellen and Draghi believe in the Taylor model and the Phillips curve. Gresham’s law will be found in the history books, but his corollary has little chance of making it into future economic textbooks. The result will likely be a continued imbalance between savings and investment, a yield curve too flat to support historic business models, and an anemic 1-2% rate of real economic growth in even the most robust developed countries."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

'Lipstick'-ing The GDP Pig Amid An Epochal Global Deflationary Swoon





The talking heads were busy this week powdering the GDP pig. By averaging up the “disappointing” 1.5% gain for Q3 with the previous quarter they were able to pronounce that the economy is moving forward at an “encouraging” 2% clip. And once we get through this quarter’s big negative inventory adjustment, they insisted, we will be off to the ‘escape velocity’ races. Again. No we won’t! The global economy is in an epochal deflationary swoon and the US economy has already hit stall speed. It is only a matter of months before this long-in-the-tooth 75-month old business expansion will rollover into outright liquidation of excess inventories and hoarded labor. That is otherwise known as a recession.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Dire Societal Consequences Of Stability-Obsessed Keynesians





We will be the first to admit that yield curve inversion is not the only factor causing recessions, but through the credit channel it can be an important contributor. Depending on the importance of the credit channel, the Federal Reserve, by pegging the short term rate at zero, have essentially removed one recessionary market mechanism that used to efficiently clear excesses within the financial system. While stability obsessed Keynesians on a quest to the permanent boom regard this as a positive development, the rest of us obviously understand that false stability breeds instability.

 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Futures Fade Overnight Ramp After BOJ Disappoints, Attention Returns To Hawkish Fed





Back in September we explained why, contrary to both conventional wisdom and the BOJ's endless protests to the contrary, neither the BOJ nor the ECB have any interest in boosting QE at this - or any other point - simply because with every incremental bond they buy, the time when the two central banks run out of monetizable debt comes closer. Since then the ECB has jawboned that it may boost QE (but it has not done so), and overnight as reported previously, the BOJ likewise did not expand QE despite many, including Goldman Sachs, expecting it would do just that.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

We Now Have An ETA When The Biggest Bond Bubble In The World Will Burst





"On the current trajectory, we doubt the market can stay stable beyond a few quarters, especially if some SOE and/or LGFV bonds indeed default."
- Bank of America

 
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