Nominal GDP

Welcome To The "Melt-Up"

As Wile E. Coyote always discovers as he careens off the edge of the cliff, “gravity is a bitch.”

John Mauldin: This Post-Election Stock Market Rally Won't Last

"Markets have a pronounced tendency to rush to judgment when policy changes occur. When the Obama stimulus of 2009 was announced, the presumption was that it would lead to an inflationary boom. Similarly, the unveiling of QE1 raised expectations of a runaway inflation. Yet, neither happened. The economics are not different now. Under present conditions, it is our judgment that the declining secular trend in Treasury bond yields remains intact."

Brace For A Year Of "Peak Everything, Big Rotations" - Here Is BofA's Guide How To Trade It

1) Peak Liquidity: era of excess liquidity is over; 2) Peak Inequality: more fiscal stimulus to address inequality; 3) Peak Globalization: free movement of trade, labor, capital ending; FX wars starting; 4) Peak Deflation: low point in bond yields now behind us; 5) Trough Volatility: era of “flash volatility” and “pain trades” continues; 6) Peak Passive: active investors to outperform passive; 7) Transforming World: robotics, eCommerce constrain inflation upside

BofA Survey Reveals The Biggest Market Risk: A "Stagflationary Bond Crash"

According to BofA, the biggest tail risk is now a "stagflationary bond crash" - crowded longs (Minimum Volatility, US/EU credit, long EM debt) remain vulnerable to further jump in yields. In contrast, political rhetoric to calm “protectionism" fears (which jumped to highest levels since 2009) would boost risk appetite.

Russell Napier Interviewed: Fiscal Stimulus Comes With Dangerous Baggage – Financial Repression

"Let's say the fiscal policy comes. It succeeds. We get growth. We get inflation. Central bank balance sheets cannot expand in the growth and inflation. So who's going to buy the government debt? The answer is you are. Particularly if you work for a regulated financial institution. Regulated financial institutions are the people who will be expected to do that, and that is financial repression.

Everything Is Soaring As Trump Makes Buying Stuff Great Again

The global repricing of inflation expectations continues at a feverish pace in the aftermath of the Trump victory, leading to another surge in US equity futures, up 15 points or 0.7% to 2175 at last check, with Asian and European stock market all surging after the initial shock of Trump’s election victory gave way to optimism for fiscal stimulus will provide a boost to the global economy.  Commodity metals soared with copper surging the most since May 2013.

Prices Are Skyrocketing, But Only For Things You Actually Need

The way that economic data is presented, we often think of inflation as a singular number representing a general increase in prices. But in reality, price changes do not affect products and services in such a uniform and simple fashion...

"The Outcome Is Undeniable" - Global Debt Investors Face Reality Of A World Devoid Of Options

A recent, reluctant re-viewing of the film, 'Silence of the Lambs', fed fresh food for thought. The image of captives rejecting their freedom brought to mind another flock of corralled and stunned lambs - bond market investors. They too have been given the opportunity to escape their fate. But so many choose instead to stay. Such is the reality of a world devoid of options, with time ticking ruthlessly by.

David Rosenberg Calls For A Multi-Trillion, "Helicopter Money" Stimulus Package

David Rosenberg has a modest proposal in mind for the US economy: he says only a massive, multi-trillion stimulus package which includes helicopter money attached to a $2 trillion perpetual bond, massive infrastructure spending and measures to tackle the $1 trillion student debt load, has any hope of kickstarting the US economy.

China Injects Economy With A Quarter Trillion In Debt In One Month, But The Full Story Is Much Scarier

"From a growth rate perspective, the speed of credit expansion is alarming. The current pace of credit growth in China is realistically in a range between 19% and 20%, well above the reported official TSF growth of 12.4% and new loan growth of 13.0% in September. Relative to GDP, China’s credit-to-GDP ratio currently in a range from 260% to 275% of GDP as of September 2016" - Barclays