With Treasury Secretary Jack Lew sending a letter to Congress this evening demanding they raise the debt limit as soon as possible, warning that cash balances have dropped below the "minimum target," it is perhaps less than surprising that Goldman Sachs is warning that a government shutdown at the end of the month has become much more likely over the last several weeks. While out-months in VIX (beyond the prospective shutdown) remain elevated, Goldman finds a silver-lining claiming that the effect of a potential shutdown on financial markets and the real economy would probably be modest if it did occur. We shall see...
Despite the liberal media spinning Hillary's non-apology as bringing her closer to the American public, it appears her presidential campaign took another shot to the chest this weekend. Not only does Bernie Sanders keep rising in the polls, Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton head-to-head, garnering 45% support versus 40% of his Democratic rival, according to a new national poll.
In yet another somewhat surreal twist in The Donald's path to The White House, Fox Business reports the long, sometimes contentious relationship between Donald Trump and Steve Wynn has taken another turn, with the Las Vegas casino magnate serving as an unofficial adviser to Trump’s presidential campaign. Having known each other for 30 years, Fox's Gasparino notes that they have clashed in the past (Wynn on Turmp in 1998 "He's a fool," and Trump on Wynn "he's a very strange guy.") but in recent years both have been critical of the leftward tilt of the Democratic Party and president Obama.
Many Republicans simply delude themselves that Trump is not a serious candidate who cannot, for some reason, get the nomination. We say, don’t underestimate his ego, which we know is and always has been enormous.
At a certain point, we suppose Joe Biden took a look at the state of the 2016 race for The White House and thought: "why not me?"
In the end, Trump is what America had earned. Trump is what America deserved. Trump was our reckoning. And while his rise to power was born of our failings, it also forced us to find our strength. It’s amazing how adaptable we are as human beings, isn’t it? Trump saved us.
It is not enough to issue proclamations such as “it is time to get tough” or “It is time to make America great again”. These are the buzz words of a man that is reaching out to tap the rich vein of popular appeal. Perhaps that is what all politicians strive to do, especially when the field of candidates is rather crowded. However, what is clear is that a well-crafted economic strategy is not present, nor are staffers that would have the temerity to disagree with Mr T.
For reasons that will forever remain a mystery to us, mercantilism and protectionism actually hold enormous popular appeal. The best explanation we can come up with for this phenomenon is that the support for such policies is based on a mixture of economic ignorance and relentless propaganda by vested interests over the past, say, four centuries. Still, it is almost comical that people are so vociferously clamoring for policies that can actually cost them a fortune and will definitely lower their standard of living.
For a few days, Fox News didn't know how to handle Donald Trump's "blood" comments about one of the network's favorite anchors. Then someone woke up and realized that if you're Fox, being boycotted by the GOP frontrunner simply isn't tenable.
It’s very important to call out people like Trump for the man he is, so we don’t simply fawn and fall for a narcissist, strongman-type as a way to deal with our societal pain and frustration... "I was there at the first Tea Party in 2007 and I’ll be damned if I’m going to stand passively by and watch the movement destroyed by a fake conservative."
"Oops." On the heels of a lackluster performance in the "losers" bracket of the first GOP primary debate last week, Rick Perry has reportedly stopped paying staffers in what may be the beginning of the end for the former Texas governor's second run at The White House.
Normally, candidates that are not part of the “establishment” do not pose much of a threat. In order to win elections in this country, especially on a national level, you need name recognition and you need lots and lots of money. Donald Trump has both, and no matter what you may think of him you have to admit that he has star power. And he was never supposed to run for president. You see, the truth is that only members of “the club” are allowed to play. The elite very carefully groom their candidates, and they are usually able to maintain a very tight grip on both major political parties. This two-headed abomination that we call a “two party system” is in reality just a one party system.
- July job gains may favor September interest rate rise (Reuters)
- It's all about Trump at raucous Republican debate (Reuters)
- The 5 Most Important Takeaways From the First Debate of 2016 (BBG)
- Republican presidential candidate Carly Fiorina wins the Web (Reuters)
- Hedge Fund Losses From Commodity Slump Sparking Investor Exodus (BBG)
- Winners and losers from the first Republican presidential debate (WaPo)
- Bush turns in workmanlike debate performance, but will it be enough? (Reuters)
Six years ago, hardly anybody outside financial circles had any idea what Quantitative Easing was – hell, many within financial circles had no idea what QE entailed. The success of the narrative created around QE; that it is the mythical ‘free lunch’ that we all intuitively know can’t exist but secretly hope does, has played perfectly to the public and now, having endured for two electoral cycles, the next wave of politicians also believe it will have no consequences and are actually using it when planning the message they feel will endear them to the electorate. What plays better than free money?
Having a security clearance comes with a certain amount of responsibility and those who are privy to potentially sensitive information are expected to exercise good judgement. In other words, whether or not the information carried a giant red "top secret" stamp isn’t the relevant question, nor is "no harm no foul" a legitimate after the fact defense. And that, apparently, is the difference between a Clinton and say a Manning or a Snowden - that is, holding Hillary (or any other member of what Jimmy Carter would call America’s "political oligarchy") to the same standards as everyone else turns out to be an uphill battle.