Nomura

A Russian Went Inside A Chinese Click-Farm: This Is What He Found

On the day when Snapchat erased billions of market cap from investors (and founders) accounts - as the MAUs-means-money model seems to break - we thought it worthwhile taking another glimpse into the hush-hush world of 'click-farms' and the fakeness of the latest social network fads.

"Mystery" Central Bank Buyer Revealed, Goes On Q1 Buying Spree

While traders and investors were struck by the perplexing price action in the market in the first few months of the year, where on one hand institutions were dumping stocks at a near-record pace even as the S&P was making fresh all time highs, one central bank was quietly buying everything in sight....

Frontrunning: May 1

  • Congress Inks Spending Deal That Jettisons Trump Priorities (BBG)
  • Trump Pushes for Vote on Health Bill but Hurdles Remain (WSJ)
  • Apple’s Cash Hoard Set to Top $250 Billion (WSJ)
  • Hamas to soften stance on Israel, Muslim Brotherhood in policy document (Reuters)
  • UPS Tries a New Twist on Surge Pricing (WSJ)

Stocks Dazed After Trump NAFTA Flop, Tax Plan Disappointment; ECB Looms

European shares are lower, pressured by disappointing results by Deutsche Bank and ending a six-session gain, as Asian equities and S&P futures were little changed after a record-setting rally in world stocks which pushed the MSCI World index to over $50 trillion yesterday, fizzled after Trump released unconvincing tax cut plans prompting traders to "sell the news" while caution set in as the ECB met.

Japan's 10Y Yield Drops Below Zero Again: All Eyes On The BOJ

With every other asset class roundtripping the November election outcome, it was only a matter of time before Japan's 10Y JGB retraced the entire "reflationary" move from 0.0% to 0.1%. And, sure enough, after today's violent deflationary capitulation, moments ago Japan's JGB 0.1% of 2027 once again dipped back under 0%, sliding as low as -0.003% as deflation returns with a whimper.

Chinese Economic Data Beats Across The Board After Record Credit Injection

Overnight China reported a barrage of economic data for March and Q1, that not only showed the first back to back GDP acceleration in seven years, but beat across the board as investment picked up, retail sales rebounded and factory output strengthened, following record credit growth and a fresh rebound in China's property markets which defy Beijing's attempts to taper the country's newest housing bubble.

Financial Market Insurance Is Not Like Hurricane Insurance

"..the hurricane is not more or less likely to hit because more hurricane insurance has been written. In the financial markets this is not true. The more people write financial insurance, the more likely it is that a disaster will happen, because the people who know you have sold the insurance can make it happen. So you have to monitor what other people are doing.”

Government Shutdown Odds Are Rising, Goldman Warns

"A shutdown would send  another signal to markets that Republicans may not be able to enact their agenda, lowering expectations for tax reform and an infrastructure program. We believe Congress is more likely to meet the deadline, but see a one in three chance of a shutdown."