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Frontrunning: December 11





  • Shale operaters Goodrich, Oasis Petroleum cut spending for 2015 as oil slides (Reuters)
  • Greece to hold elections in January if president vote fails (Reuters)
  • Norway’s Shock Rate Cut Drives Krone to Lowest Since 2009 (BBG)
  • ‘Severe Downturn’ Threatening Norway, Central Bank Governor Says (BBG)
  • Russia’s Fifth Rate Increase Fails to Halt Ruble Slide to Record (BBG)
  • SNB Says Deflation Risks Increased as Franc Cap Maintained (BBG)
  • China eases bank lending restrictions, PBOC targets 10 trillion yuan in loans for 2014 (Reuters)
  • Mobius Says China’s Bull Market Is Just Getting Started (BBG)
  • How Wal-Mart Made Its Crumbling China Business Look So Good for So Long (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: December 10





  • New Normal headlines: Global stocks up on hopes of China policy easing (Reuters)
  • China inflation eases to five-year low (BBC)
  • U.S. Lawmakers Agree on $1.1 Trillion Spending Bill (WSJ)
  • U.S. Braced for Blowback as CIA Report Lays Bare Abuses (BBG)
  • CIA tortured, misled, U.S. report finds, drawing calls for action (Reuters)
  • CIA Made False Claims Torture Prevented Heathrow Attacks (BBG)
  • Oil Resumes Drop as Iran Sees $40 If There’s OPEC Discord (BBG)
  • OPEC Says 2015 Demand for Its Crude Will Be Weakest in 12 Years (BBG)
  • Greek yield curve inverted as politics raise default fears (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: December 8





  • Welcome to the recovery:
    • Euro zone warning hits stocks, currency as oil plumbs depths (Reuters)
    • Japan GDP Worse Than Initially Reported (WSJ)
    • China trade data well below expectations (BBC)
    • German industrial production frustrates forecasts (FT)
  • Oil Extends Retreat With European Stocks as Dollar Gains (BBG)
  • California police, protesters clash again after 'chokehold' death (Reuters)
  • Ruble’s Rout Is Tale of Failed Threats, Missteps (BBG), not to be confused with "Yen's Rout Is Tale Of Keynesian Success, Prosperity"
  • Uber banned from operating in Indian capital after driver rape (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: December 3





  • Fall of the Bond King: How Gross Lost Empire as Pimco Cracked (BBG)
  • Hong Kong 'Occupy' leaders surrender as pro-democracy protests appear to wither (Reuters)
  • Ashton Carter, Ex-Pentagon No. 2, Emerges as Obama Favorite for Defense Secretary (WSJ)
  • Oil, the Ruble and Putin Are All Headed for 63. A Russian Joke -- for the Moment (BBG)
  • New U.S. oil and gas well November permits tumble nearly 40 percent (Reuters)
  • Swedish government on brink of collapse (AJ)
  • China says Britain has no moral responsibility for Hong Kong (Reuters)
  • Indian Labs Deleted Test Results for U.S. Drugs, Documents Show (BBG)
 
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And The Biggest Winner From The OPEC Price War Is...





"This is a golden time window to acquire more strategic oil at lower costs," notes one Hong-Kong based analyst, as Bloomberg confirms what we have noted here and here, that China is emerging as the winner from OPEC’s battle with rival oil producers as the world’s biggest energy consumer stockpiles crude.

 
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Frontrunning: November 25





  • Ferguson in Flames (Reuters)
  • Ferguson Cop Told Grand Jury He Feared for His Life (BBG)
  • Sharpton: Grand Jury Announcement ‘An Absolute Blow’ (Daily Caller)
  • Gunshots echo as violence returns to Ferguson, protests across U.S. (Reuters)
  • BoJ members warned on costs of more easing (FT)
  • Hagel Exit Shows Obama Has Taken Power Away From Pentagon (BBG)
  • Ukraine leader, under pressure from West, pledges new government soon (Reuters)
  • Eurozone Stagnation Poses Major Risk to Global Growth, OECD Warns (WSJ)
  • ECB’s Coeure Says Officials Won’t Rush as They Debate All Assets (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: November 21





  • They go all in: China’s PBOC Cuts Interest Rates for First Time Since 2012 (BBG)
  • And all in-er: ECB's Draghi throws door to quantitative easing wide open as recovery wanes (Reuters)
  • Global Markets Rally: ECB Head Says Central Bank Is Ready to Expand Stimulus Program After China Cuts Rates (WSJ)
  • Obama unveils U.S. immigration reform, setting up fight with Republicans (Reuters)
  • U.S. increasing non-lethal military aid to Ukraine (Reuters)
  • Russia warns U.S. against arms to Ukraine as Biden due in Kiev (Reuters)
  • Ukraine slashed gold holdings in October, Russia added more - IMF (Reuters)
  • Abe Dissolves Japan’s Lower House of Parliament (WSJ)
 
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Why Japan’s Money Printing Madness Matters





Keynesian fiscal policies and central banking regimes have buried the public sectors of most of the world’s major economies in unsustainable debt. Now they propose to double down on more of the same because an entire generation of politicians have been house-trained in permanent fiscal profligacy and endless kicking of the fiscal can down the road. To be sure, in perhaps putting off Japan’s day of fiscal reckoning once again, Prime Minister Abe is proving himself to be a certifiable madman. In short order, however, he will have plenty of company all around the planet.

 
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Despite Record Highs, These 5 'People' Are Still Flipping Out





Despite the apparent economic and profit news improvements recently, JPMorgan CIO Michael Cembalest notes there are a few instances where people are still flipping out. It’s worth reviewing them, he suggests, as they're indicative of risks and opportunities in financial markets heading into 2015, and of the continued presence of central banks affecting asset prices.

 
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Debt, Propaganda And Now Deflation





Our world, our life, has been built on debt and propaganda for many years. They have kept us from noticing how poorly we are doing. But now a third element has entered the foundation of our societies, and it’s set to eat away at everything that has – barely – kept the entire edifice from crumbling apart. Deflation.

 
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Abenomics Creates "Potential For Economic Collapse Triggered By Bond Market Crash", Warns Richard Koo





"Overseas views on the BOJ’s surprise easing announcement can be broken down into two camps: the reflationists, who commend the BOJ for its bold actions, and those critical of the policy, who say it is a symptom of the final stages of Japan’s economic decline. The critics can further be divided into two groups: those who believe that continuing the current policy of “Banzainomics” will lead to a collapse of the Japanese economy and government finance triggered by a crash in the JGB market, and those who worry that the ongoing devaluation of the yen under this policy will hurt their own countries’ industries.... The first group’s scenario, in which the BOJ’s reckless attempts to achieve a 2% inflation target trigger a bond market crash and an eventual collapse of the Japanese economy, is of greater concern. After all, it is the same scenario the world’s QE pioneers—the US and the UK—are desperately trying to avert at this very moment."

 
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Frontrunning: November 11





  • No Sign of Thaw in Obama’s Brief Encounters With Putin (BBG)
  • Japan Lawmakers Prepare for Snap Elections as Abe Mulls Tax (BBG)
  • Global stocks rise, Brent crude hits four-year low (Reuters)
  • U.S., China to Drop Tariffs on Range of Tech Products (WSJ)
  • ‘Too-Big-to-Fail’ Rule Would Raise Bar for Bank Capital (WSJ) ... and mean even bigger taxpayer bailouts
  • Pot in New York: $100 Ticket. No Charges. No Record. No Nothing (BBG)
  • Microsoft unveils first Lumia smartphone without Nokia name (Reuters)
  • Davos-Man Ackermann Lured to Cyprus Bank by Billionaires (BBG)
  • Alibaba, Apple Talks on Payments Tie-Up Focused on China (WSJ)
 
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"It's Different This Time" Japanese Stock Market Swing Is Fastest Ever





In the space of the last 3 weeks, Japanese stocks have swung from the most overbought in 18 months to the most oversold in 3 years to the most overbought in 18 months again. This is the fastest and most violent swing in TOPIX on record as ever-more-desperate hot money chases central bank actions around the world. As Bloomberg reports, “Japan is a very unnerving market because it behaves like an uneducated brat,” said Mikio Kumada, Hong Kong-based global strategist at LGT Capital Partners, which manages about $50 billion. Following the double-whammy of GPIF allocations and BoJ expansion, he warns "you don’t know what it’s going to do in the next moment and in many ways it’s unpredictable."

 
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Western Banks Find "In China, Nothing Is What It Appears To Be"





When Chinese property developer Agile Property Holdings Ltd. said this month that its chairman was taken into custody by authorities, the disclosure was a shock to Western banks that lent the company money, according to China Spectator as the fog of ever-rising asset values suddenly evaporates into the reality of an opaque real estate credit market slap them in the face. The simple fact is "it is very difficult to get a handle on the financials of a Chinese company," as a local investigative consulting firm warns "in China, nothing is what it appears to be."

 
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