Nomura

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Frontrunning: September 19





  • Bernanke Resets Policy by Doing Nothing as Markets Soar (BBG)
  • Stocks Jump to Five-Year High as Metals Rally on Fed (BBG)
  • Centre-left bigwig says hard to stay allied with Berlusconi (ANSA)
  • J.P. Morgan 'Whale' Fine Put at Over $900 Million (WSJ)
  • Banks’ $10 Billion Sweet Spot Sets Off Buying Spree for Lenders (BBG)
  • Time to taper? Not if you look at bank loans (Reuters)
  • Mortgage Lending Reaches 5-Year High (WSJ) ... and then plunges as Fed gives "all clear" for a few months
  • Yellen Chances Grow as Obama Aides Test Senate Support (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: September 16





  • Summers Quit Fed Quest After Democrats Spurned Obama Favorite (BBG)
  • Geithner Still Not Interested in Fed Chair Slot (WSJ)
  • Gross’s Trade Sours as Bonds Lose Faith in Fed Guidance (BBG)
  • Bob Diamond calls for bank rules shake-up (FT)
  • Russia says may be time to force Assad's foes to talk peace (Reuters)
  • Iran Dials Up Syria Presence (WSJ)
  • Kerry Seeks to Sell Syria Deal (WSJ)
  • Shutdown of Japan’s Last Nuclear Reactor Raises Power Concerns (BBG)
  • Emerging Stocks Rise to 3-Month High as Bonds Gain on Fed (BBG)
  • Bernanke’s Maradona swerve hits bonds (FT)
 
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Frontrunning: September 12





  • Syrian Rebels Hurt by Delay (WSJ), U.S. seeks quick proof Syria ready to abandon chemical weapons (Reuters)
  • Lavrov Brings Acerbic Pragmatism to Syria Meet With Kerry (BBG)
  • Five years after Lehman, risk moves into the shadows (Reuters)
  • U.S. shares raw intelligence data with Israel, leaked document shows  (LA Times)
  • Japan to raise sales tax, launch $50 bln stimulus (AFP) - so 1) lower debt by sales tax, then 2) raise debt through stimulus.
  • Blackstone’s Hilton Files for $1.25 Billion U.S. Initial Offer (BBG)
  • Second Life Bankers Thrive in Dubai as Boutiques Boost Fees (BBG)
  • Brussels probes multinationals’ tax deals (FT)
  • Wall Street's Top Cop: SEC Tries to Rebuild Its Reputation (WSJ) ... and fails
  • Tablet sales set to overtake PCs (FT)
  • The end of angst? Prosperous Germans in no mood for change (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: September 9





  • Hedge Funds Cut Back on Fees (WSJ) as we predicted would happen in May
  • Syria's Assad denies chemical weapons use; U.S. presses case for strike (Reuters)
  • Unemployment Falling for Wrong Reason Creates Fed Predicament (BBG)
  • U.S. tapped into networks of Google, Petrobras, others (Reuters)
  • Chinese Zombies Emerging After Years of Solar Subsidies (BBG)
  • Monte Paschi doubles planned capital hike to 2.5 billion euros (Reuters)
  • Loan Size to Be Cut for Fannie, Freddie (WSJ)
  • Japan Growth Revision Opens Door to Sales Tax Rise (FT)
  • Inside the End of the U.S. Bid to Punish Lehman Executives (NYT)
  • Financial Crisis: Lessons of the Rescue, A Drama in Five Acts (WSJ)
  • Time Warner Joins IBM in Health Shift for Retirees (WSJ)
  • Mideast Derails Key Issues in Congress (WSJ)
 
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Poland Confiscates Half Of Private Pension Funds To "Cut" Sovereign Debt Load





To summarize:

  1. Government has too much debt to issue more debt
  2. Government nationalizes private pension funds making their debt holdings an "asset" and commingles with other public assets
  3. New confiscated assets net out sovereign debt liability, lowering the debt/GDP ratio
  4. Debt/GDP drops below threshold, government can issue more sovereign debt
 
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Yield Rise "Blessing in Disguise" To Some, Nomura Says





While many begrudge the rise in interest rates and their concomittant tightening of financial conditions, Nomura's George Concalves notes that the move has been a "blessing in disguise" for most long-only bond investors. Insurance companies and pension-funds, who need 'yield' to cover long-term liabilities, have been underweight since the Fed began Operation Twist (on the basis of the yield became too compressed) but the recent sell-off in Treasuries (which does not reflect any asset-allocation or great rotation since stocks have been just as weak) enabled these funds to put money to work. This helps to explain the very notable flattening in the yield curve (5s30s -17bps in the last week) as duration extension is more economically attractive. Concalves suggests Taper fears are overdone and that should rates back up another 25bps, there is more dry-powder to put to work in bonds.

 
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Frontrunning: August 23





  • Lew warns Congress to strike debt ceiling deal (FT)
  • Central-Bank Moves Blur the View (WSJ)
  • Brazil, Indonesia launch measures to shore up their currencies (FT)
  • More mainstream media reminded about Fukushima - Radioactive ground water under Fukushima nears sea (AP)
  • Fukushima inspectors 'careless', Japan agency says, as nuclear crisis grows (Reuters)
  • New York Banker Arrested on Rape Charges in East Hampton (NYT)
  • This time they mean business, for real: CFTC Moves to Rein In High-Speed Traders (WSJ)
  • Britain operates secret monitoring station in Middle East (Reuters)
  • Moody’s considers downgrading top US banks (FT)
  • China's Bo calls wife mad after she testifies against him (Reuters)
  • JPMorgan Sub-New Normal Growth Seen Vexing Next Fed Chief (BBG)
  • SEC calls for cooling-off period for more staff (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: August 22





  • SURPRISE - Goldman Sachs won a preliminary victory to limit losses from a wave of erroneous trades that roiled U.S. options markets (WSJ)
  • HP’s Whitman abandons 2014 revenue growth target (FT) - just keep doing those buybacks and ignore CapEx: revenue growth estimated in 2022
  • Republicans in Echo Before Big Burn Defy Affordable Care (BBG)
  • China's banks to take next step in rate reform push  (Reuters)
  • Berlin’s Consistency on Greece’s Rescue (FT) and lack thereof
  • Summers as Obama Voice of Authority Rides Car Rescue in Fed Race (BBG)
  • Cuomo in Manure Fight as New York Promotes Yogurt (BBG)
  • Yellen’s Ties From London to Shanghai Bypass White House (BBG)
  • Sanctions Gap Allows China to Import Iranian Oil (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: August 21





  • Obamacare, tepid U.S. growth fuel part-time hiring (Reuters)
  • Cameron was behind UK attempt to halt Snowden reports (Reuters), Britain defends detention of journalist's partner (Reuters)
  • Goldman Options Error Shows Peril Persists One Year After Knight (BBG)
  • China expresses 'shock' as Japan's nuclear crisis deepens  (Reuters)
  • Inquiry into China insurance firm rattles industry (Caixin)
  • Cheaper rivals eat into Apple’s China tablet share (FT)
  • Exporting fast food: Subway Targets Europe With as Many as 1,000 New Outlets in 2014 (BBG)
  • Reserve Bank of India boosts liquidity to ease pressure on banks (FT)
  • Justice Department Plans New Crisis-Related Cases (WSJ) - Holder doing his cutest attempt to pretend the TBTProsecute aren't
  • Syrian Opposition Alleges Gas Attack, Which Government Denies (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: July 31





  • Ackman Says Pershing Square Takes 9.8% Stake in Air Products (BBG) - So is APD Carl Icahn's biggest ever short yet
  • Latest Hilsenplant: Summers Hedges His Doubts on Fed's Bond Buying (WSJ)
  • China Stocks World’s Worst Losing $748 Billion on Slump (BBG)
  • U.S. Spy Program Lifts Veil in Court (WSJ)
  • Abenomics on the rock again: Japan July manufacturing PMI shows growth at 4-month low (Reuters)
  • EADS to be renamed Airbus in shake-up (FT)
  • Goldman's GSAM has significantly increased its exposure to European equities (FT) - there is a reason why this is Goldman's worst division
  • Japanese Megabanks Post Mega Profit Gains (WSJ) - when one excludes MTM impact from rate surge of course
  • Ex-workers sue Apple, seek overtime for daily bag searches (Reuters)
  • Hong Kong Yuan Deposits Snap Eight-Month Increase on Cash Crunch (BBG)
  • Downtown NYC Landlords Remake Offices in Shift From Banks (BBG)
 
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"The Taper Is Coming" - What Wall Street Thinks





Back in May, when we coined the term "Taper Tantrum" before the infamous Hilsenrath article was released bringing with it famine, pestilence and a full rerun of the 1994 blow out in rates, and when the prevailing consensus was that Bernanke wouldn't touch the rate of monthly monetization until December or even 2014, we forecast that as a result of a the declining US deficit (primarily due to a brief spike in GSE remittances to the Treasury until the closed loop of lower monetization ends any myth of a "housing recovery" and pushes US deficits much wider again) Bernanke will have no choice but to taper QE by $20 billion (or else risk destabilizing an already illiquid TSY market even more) with the announcement due at the September FOMC meeting. Just to avoid any confusion, we also showed just what such a September tapering would look like in the grand context of QE. But when, and by how, much does Wall Street see the end of tapering, and what is the sell-side consensus? The list below summarizes the current view by bank.

 
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Guest Post: Bankers Own The World





In every era, there are certain people and institutions that are held in the highest public regard as they embody the prevailing values of society. Not that long ago, Albert Einstein was a major public figure and was widely revered. Can you name a scientist that commands a similar presence today? Today, some of the most celebrated individuals and institutions are ensconced within the financial industry; in banks, hedge funds, and private equity firms. Which is odd because none of these firms or individuals actually make anything, which society might point to as additive to our living standards. Instead, these financial magicians harvest value from the rest of society that has to work hard to produce real things of real value. Money is power. And history has shown that power is never ceded spontaneously or willingly. But the stability of this parasitical system begins to weaken quickly when the lifeblood it depends on begins to dry up. And that's when things can begin to go south in a hurry

 
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Bernanke Sends Stocks To New All-Time Highs





The only story this morning remains Bernanke's after hours speech, which solidly trumped the FOMC minutes in market impact, and which, in addition to ramping US equity futures to just about new all time highs, sent the EURUSD soaring by almost the same amount (+300 pips) as the actual QE1 announcement on March 18, 2009. Such is the power of verbal currency warfare, when Bernanke hasn't acutally done anything and merely hinted the Fed is as confused as ever about what to do. Of course, as Commerzbank notes this morning, the U.S. economy would have to lose a lot of momentum for the Fed to cancel tapering, and the central bank would only expand the purchase program if the economy collapses, but none of that matters to the "wealth effect" for the 1% where economic destruction simply means more wealth.

 
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Frontrunning: July 5





  • Egypt Girds for Muslim Brotherhood Protests (WSJ)
  • SAC Capital's Steven Cohen Expected to Avoid Criminal Charges (WSJ)
  • SAC insider-trading probe could last years (Reuters)
  • RBI seen selling dollars around 60.59 levels: dealers (Reuters)
  • China signals will cut off credit to rebalance economy (Reuters)
  • Egypt army arrests key Muslim Brotherhood figures (BBC)
  • Rise in Steel Prices Alarms Buyers (WSJ)
  • Draghi-Carney Seek Independence Day Break From Bernanke (BBG)
  • Samsung Warns Results Will Miss Forecasts (WSJ)
  • Russia Prosecutor Seeks 6 Years in Jail for Putin Critic Navalny (BBG)
 
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