• Pivotfarm
    04/18/2014 - 12:44
    Peering in from the outside or through the looking glass at what’s going down on the other side is always a distortion of reality. We sit here in the west looking at the development, the changes and...

Nomura

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Bob, At His Bearish Best, On "Fudge, Fantasy And Fiction" - "My Target For The S&P Remains 800/900"





And now for some good old fashioned Bob Janjuah, albeit with proper grammar (damn you Nomura proper English sylesheet... damn you to hell): "No change. Deeply bearish with respect to global growth, and on a secular basis I am very strongly risk-off – my 2012 target for the low in the S&P500 remains 800/900, with the risk of an "undershoot? to the 700s. See my last note for details/targets. I would highlight only my view that the global policy making community, based their "actions? over the last month, are doing a wonderful job in meeting my 2012 "target?. Namely that, in 2012, the current set of developed markets (DM) policymakers will be exposed as "emperors with no clothes on?, and their policy choices over the last few years will be seen as the central problem, rather than as some mystical bazooka solution which can somehow reconcile the chasm between a lack of growth and productivity on the one hand, and the enormous debt and debt servicing costs and unsustainable entitlement culture costs that we face in the DM world on the other." And for the shorter-term: "The implication therefore is that in 2011, the October equity lows MAY NOT be the lows for the year. So based on what I can see now, and with a S&P500 1310 “stop loss” as mentioned above, I am now looking for another major risk-off phase between now and year end, with a December target for the S&P500 back down in the 1100s for sure, and possibly even the low 1000s." In other words, Bob as we love him best: nearing his all time bearish zenith... Or nadir, depends on one's perspective.

 


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As Greece Launches Latest 2 Day General Strike, Unions Warn Of Austerity "Death Spiral" - A Primer On Greek Politics





A few days ago we pointed out that Greece has now effectively shut down following a relentless barrage of strikes and occupations which not only have halted the economy, but now prevent the economy from even collecting tax revenues (one wonders if the country has finally borrowed the ink it needs to print tax forms, from Ben Bernanke). It appears the irony of the vicious loop whereby more austerity means more strikes, means less tax revenues, means bigger budget deficits, means more austerity, means even more strikes, has not been lost on the population, and now, according to Reuters, local unions warn that the country "risks sliding into a "death spiral" if the government continues to slash salaries and lay off workers instead of cracking down on tax evasion and raising money from the rich, the head of the biggest public sector union said Tuesday. "This will exacerbate recession, unemployment and state revenues will continue to fall, creating a death spiral. It must not continue," Tsikrikas told Reuters in an interview and urged lawmakers to reject the package when it is voted in parliament Wednesday and Thursday." He is right, and unfortunately for him, as the attached Nomura primer on near-term Greek politics indicates, both parties have no upside in severing monetary ties with Europe and realize all too well that unlike what G-Pap is saying, specifically that the country is being held hostage by strikes and protests, it is Greek strikes and protests that are holding Europe and its taxpayers hostage. However, since productive Europeans have no problem with that, it will continue indefinitely, even as the Greek economy grinds to a halt and nobody does or produces anything, and the entire country becomes a permanent ward of the European state, receiving its bi-monthly IMF bail out funding which in turn is flipped right back and used to pay off European bank interests. Rinse. Repeat.

 


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Knee Jerk Responses To BOE "Aggressive" QE Expansion





Reuters summarizes the immediate responses from Wall Street on the BOE's surprising and substantial QE expansion.

 


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Euro Jumps As US Taxpayers Are Latest Source Of European Bailout According To Freshest Set Of Bailout Rumors





FT, Liesman and now the IMF (aka US Taxpayer). Rinse repeat. The program for the spin cycle to keep the EUR afloat, and Europe bailed out on any given day ending in -day is now clear as day. After last night's FT rumor for yet another comprehensive bank bailout program was promptly digested and rejected by the market with the EURUSD recouping all losses, it is now the IMF's duty du jour to protect the doomed currency, naturally with other people's money, in this case America's middle class. And in a flurry of headlines, we find that the person tasked with destroying his credibility, after the market no longer trusts anything Lagarde says, is IMF European Department Director Antonio Borges who according to Reuters, said that Europe needs between 100 billion and 200 billion euros to recapitalize its banks to win back investor confidence and should carry out the plan across the continent, not in a staggered process. He also confirmed that other European bureaucrats lied yesterday when they said no recap plan was being considered after saying that, well, "EU officials are working on a European bank-recapitalization plan." Said otherwise, US taxpayers to the European rescue because the EUcrats can not get their imploding house in order. But, but, whatever happened to China?

 


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Euro Plunges After Draghi Says Eurobanks Have Liquidity Crisis, Finland And Spain FinMins Say No Need For EFSF Expansion





The EURUSD as expected, is now in free fall mode, following a plethora of statement out of place, after coming ECB head Draghi says the bank in Europe have funding problems (aka a liquidity crisis), the Finland FinMin has said he does not want an expansion of the EFSF nor does he expect a solution on the collateral "row", saying a Deal on EFSF Collateral is uncertain, and lastly, Spain's Salgado has said there is no need of "quantitative amplification" of the EFSF. In other words, with the EFSF leverage meeting imminent, it appears that pretty much nobody aside from France, and some Econ PhDs, are banging the table on using a 10x expansion, knowing all too well that just as Nomura explained last night, such a move is equivalent to money printing and invites nothing short of hyperinflation if and when it all goes wrong.

 


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Zero Bonuses At Goldman?





In what is certainly a clear sign of the apocalypse, at least for Wall Streeters, there is now speculation that the holiest of holys, none other than Golman Sachs, may be planning to no bonuses this year following a third quarter which now everyone expects will be the worst for the company in recent history (which is to be expected with the firm's prop trading operation several crippled, although still marginally operational in various other guises). According to The Australian: "Goldman Sachs is planning to slash bonuses to almost zero amid growing expectations that the Wall Street bank is about to slide into the red for only the second time in its history. The market meltdown that began in August has hammered the revenues of all the big global investment banks. Analysts have been slashing their forecasts for Goldman's third-quarter results, due on October 18, with most now expecting it to report a loss." And don't tell Morgan Stanley this but... "Morgan Stanley, its closest rival, could also fall into the red." This means no mas dinero at Times Square-o either. Yet this is nothing compared to the media reaction when mainstream journalism figures out just how many partners and MDs at both Goldman and MS are underwater on loans they have taken out from the company itself in exchange for unvested stock struck at prices anywhere between 50 and 100% higher. Oops.

 


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Bob Janjuah: "In One Year I Expect Global Equities To Be 25%/30% Lower; The S&P Will Reach Low 1000s In October"





Nomura Bob is back with another hotly anticipated if, unfortunately, grammatically flawless, market strategy piece. Short and sweet, Bob as usual cuts right to the point. "My secular view remains bearish. In or within a year from now I expect global equities to be 25% to 30% lower. My S&P500 target for the low in 2012 remains 800/900, and I think an 'undershoot' into the 700s is entirely possible. In this bearish outcome I would expect 10-year bund yields at 1% to 1.25%, 10 year UST yields at 1.25% to 1.5%, and 10-year gilts below 2%. The USD should do well, credit and commodities should not....On a secular basis, investors should remain cautious, and focus on strong balance sheets and strong/robust business models. I expect the next year to be about capital and job preservation. Any counter-trend rally should be tradable but short lived - it should be viewed opportunistically."

 


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Nomura Explains Why Gold Went Down, And Why It Is Going Back Up





Tired of all the trite meaningless propaganda from Economic PhDs who crawl out of the woodwork every time there is a downtick in gold, proclaiming in big bold letters that the Gold "bubble" has burst, only to crawl right back in when gold soars $100/oz in the days following their latest terminally wrong proclamation? Or, alterantively, wondering what will happen to gold from this point on? Then the following report from Nomura is for you. As Saeed Amen analyzes: "In this article we explain why the price of gold has fallen in recent weeks. Notably, price action during Asian hours has become very bearish, which had not been the case in previous unwinds earlier in the year. In addition, it is likely that losses in risky assets such as equities helped precipitate unwinding of very heavily extended long gold positions. However, the key reasons for being bullish gold remain; namely, a very low interest rate environment and the potential for long-term demand from Asia. Also, the potential for gold’s status as a safe-haven hedge to tail risks arising from various uncertainties due to the European debt crisis is likely to be enhanced, especially now that short-term speculative positioning is relatively light. Also on a short-term basis, we have begun to see some reversal in gold  back upwards during Asian hours, after the unwind." Overall, informative but nothing new to regular readers: gold liquidations on market plunge (confirming ironically that gold is now among the most liquid types of investments in the market) as had been predicted months ago, and the same long-term fundamentals for the metal once the current stock downturn shakes out all the weak hands.

 


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Everything You Wanted To Know About EFSF (But Should Be Afraid To Ask)





With the weekend full of on-again-off-again comments from various European, Asian, and US politicians and central bankers with regard the chances of various incarnations of the EFSF solving all of our ills (or not), Nomura's Fixed Income Research team has what we feel is one of the most definitive analyses of the various options. We have discussed the self-exciting strange attractor nature of the endgame that will be a leveraged EFSF many times recently. The Nomura team, however, does a great job of breaking down various scenarios, such as Structural Weaknesses of EFSF 2.0, Proposals for an EFSF 3.0 (and their variants), Leverage-based options, and EFSF 2.0 as TARP and how these will result in one of three final outcomes: fiscal union, monetization, or major restructurings risking the end of the euro, as everyone searches for a steady state solution to the 'problem' of the eurozone.

While the most elegant solutions have no official sanction, we think the necessary political resolve is yet to be forthcoming, and the technical issues are challenging if not insurmountable for many of the legal workarounds, resulting in the need for yet another round of parliamentary approvals. Consequently, we see a significant risk that the market, looking for large headlines and enhanced flexibility, will be disappointed at least in the short run.

 


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"The European Financial System Is Finished" In Quotes





When it comes to European bureaucrats, the easiest way to determine if they are lying is whether or not their mouths are open. Yet there are those rare occasions in which even the most hardened of liars let one slip. The Economic Collapse, always the master of compiling impactful bulletins, has prepared a list of just such "slip" quotes that "are absolutely shocking.  In Europe they openly admit that the financial system is dying, that the euro is in danger of not surviving and that the EU does not work in its present form." In other words, ignore the ceaseless headlines of promises that all shall be well. Because it won't. Here is all you need to know about the imminent end of the Eurozone, straight from the horses' mouths.

 


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Join Rep. Brad Miller In Conference Call Briefing On FHFA Lawsuits Against 17 Biggest Banks At 2PM Today





Miller has repeatedly called on Edward DeMarco, Acting Director of FHFA, to do everything in his power to recover these funds. The Congressman is available for a media briefing at 2 p.m. today to discuss what happened to prompt the lawsuits; what needs to happen next to fix the problem; and what it all means for the taxpayer.

When: Tuesday, September 6, 2011
Start time: 2:00pm (EST)
Dial-in number: 1-308-344-6400
Access Code: 150881#

 


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