• Marc To Market
    09/23/2014 - 11:39
    Is the Great Republic been on the verge of fragmenting as classic political philosphy said was the fate of all large republics?   
  • williambanzai7
    09/23/2014 - 11:10
    Some of you were no doubt aware that the latest round of Nobel Laureate ballistic mayhem commenced on the day after September 21: The International Day of Peace!

Nomura

Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: November 16





  • Israel Mobilizes Troops as Hostilities Escalate (WSJ)
  • FHA Sets Stage for Taxpayer Subsidy With 2012 Deficit (Bloomberg)
  • On eve of fiscal cliff talks, positions harden (Reuters)
  • Japan PM Noda contradicts challenger Abe on BOJ (Reuters)
  • Regulators cut JPMorgan's ability to trade power (Reuters)
  • EU Should Reach Agreement on Greek Aid Next Week, Grilli Says (BBG)
  • Moscovici rejects talk of French crisis (FT)
  • Egypt Urges Push for Gaza Peace as Rockets Hit Israel (BBG)
  • Leading Japan politicians draw election battle lines (Reuters)
  • Fed Push to Tie Zero-Rate to Economic Goals Faces Doubts (BBG)
  • China’s commerce minister voted out in rare congress snub (Reuters)
  • China’s new leaders could have reform thrust upon them (Reuters)
  • Both Sides of Gaza Border Brace for Further Conflict (WSJ)
  • Fed Sees Hurdles in Housing Rebound (Hilsenrath)
  • The Complete 2012 Business Schools Ranking (Bloomberg)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Wall Street Prepares For Bonus Season Pain As Comp Set To Slide





In a shining example of the law of unintended consequences, when 2012 started Wall Street bankers had expected that all it would take for bonuses to surge and offset 2011's deplorable comp, is another round of QE. Well, QE came and went, not only in the US, but virtually everywhere else, and sure enough the market traded up to new 5 year highs (and just why of all time highs as well), yet something was not going according to plan: bank revenues. Another side-effect of the Fed buying the long end is everyone piling in and frontrunning Bernanke in the 10-30 Year segment, flattening the curve, and making Net Interest Margin profitability a thing of the past. The result has been a year in which despite stocks rising, banker pay is set to tumble even more (for those lucky enough to still even have a job that is, which for UBS and Nomura means about 80% of the employees a year ago) with traders of cash equities and derivatives set to see another 20% drop in comp from 2011 according to Options Group. The end result: 2012 all in comp will be half of what it was in 2007. Say goodbye to the Master of the Universe - they will now have to settle for a galaxy or two at most.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Following Japanese Models?





Perhaps those sage English philosophers 'The Vapors' were on to something 32 years ago when they asked if we were "Turning Japanese" for it seems the following charts from Nomura certainly suggest the US bond market is heading in that direction. From demographics to monetary policy; from investor allocations to flows; and from bond bubbles and volatility to long-term interest-rate paths, it seems we share a lot more than a love for sushi and pachinko with our neigbours across the ocean as we seem to be chasing after many Japanese models (of asset allocation and macro-economics).

 
Reggie Middleton's picture

Obama's Back In: Does He Succumb To Popular (Ignorant?) Opinion Like The Europeans Or Make The Tough Choices





Starving a skinny man doesn't make him healthy, but then again neither does shoving 30lbs of food down his throat. When will TPTB start using their heads? As long as policy mistakes are made, contrarian profits can be made as well.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: October 30





  • U.S. Super Storm’s Record Flooding Lands Blackout Blow (Bloomberg)
  • Sandy Carves a Path of Destruction Across the U.S. East Coast (WSJ)
  • Losses May Exceed Those of 2011 Storm (WSJ)
  • Hurricane Sandy Threatens $20 Billion in Economic Damage (Bloomberg)
  • Huge fire in Sandy's wake destroys dozens of NYC homes (Reuters)
  • Possible levee break in New Jersey floods three towns (Reuters)
  • Apple Mobile Software Head Forstall Refused to Sign Apology (WSJ)
  • Stagflation in Spain (Bloomberg)
  • German Oct. Unemployment Rose Twice as Much as Forecast (Bloomberg)
  • A declining Japan loses its once-hopeful champions (WaPo)
  • Unable to copy it, China tries building own jet engine (Reuters)
  • Obama Signs Disaster Declarations for NY, NJ (YNN)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

When ¥11 Trillion Is Not Enough: Japan's QE 9 Disappoints, Halflife Zero, Time For QE 10





It was only yesterday that we pointed out the ever decreasing halflives of central bank interventions. We are grateful that none other than the biggest intervention basket case of all came out and proved us 100% correct, when the BOJ announced none other than QE 9 just one month after the impact from QE 8 fizzled about 8 hours after it was disclosed. This time around, the destructive "benefit" to the JPY was negative from the first second, resulting in the first instance of monetary easing that.. wasn't. Japan just came up with a brand new New Normal concept: tightening through easing, when its ¥11 trillion intervention proved to be woefully insufficient for a market addicted to ever more liquidity injections.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Chart Of The Day: How To Grow Your Way To Prosperity Through Tax Hikes





...or not! As can be seen in the chart below showing the change in Spanish retail sales, there is nothing like a tax hike, in this case "Value Added", to completely obliterate any hope of increased economic transactions, monetary velocity or, well, general prosperity. In the least surprising data point of the day, Spanish retail sales plunged at their fastest rate on record (12.6% YoY) to complete the 27th month in a row of YoY drops. This nation whose economy is struggling through its second recession in three years and plagued by chronically high unemployment, has seen only three months of positive YoY comps for retail spending since November 2007. Whether this is a nation retrenching pure-and-simple on the back of anti-growth policies or an increasing amount of retail sales are completed in the gray market is unclear (as we discussed here); one thing is clear, Spain is bad and getting worse (bailout or no bailout), and as Reuters reports: "It's clear there are no signs the crisis is abating," economist at Nomura Silvio Peruzzo said. "The headline (retail) figures show a sharp drop and indicate that domestic demand is not going to be anywhere near what the government is anticipating."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: October 24





  • China May Forgo Easing as Economy Rebounds, Survey Shows (Bloomberg)... or as food and house inflation has never gone away
  • China Edges Out U.S. as Top Foreign-Investment Draw Amid World Decline (WSJ)
  • Fed to keep buying bonds despite firmer U.S. growth (Reuters)
  • Bernanke Seen Attacking Jobless Rate With QE Until His Term Ends (Bloomberg)
  • Mortgage applications plunge 12%, down for third week in a row (Dow Jones)
  • Exchanges Retreat on Trading Tools - Fund Managers, Regulators Say Certain Orders Are Risky, Aid High-Speed Firms (WSJ)
  • Europe Bank Chief to Defend Bond-Buying Plan (WSJ)
  • Japan, China Envoys Met Last Week for Talks on Island Feud (Bloomberg)
  • Goldman’s Pill Says ‘Guerrilla’ ECB to Impose Losses on Skeptics (BBG)
  • Chance rise of an Obama defeat (FT)
  • King Says BOE Is Ready to Add to QE If U.K. Recovery Fades (Bloomberg)
  • Rajoy Sees Case for Slowing Spain’s Austerity as Economy Shrinks (BusinessWeek)
  • Hong Kong Intervenes to Defend Peg as Upper Limit Tested (Bloomberg)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

As Market Plunges, Bob Janjuah Opines: "Tactical Short Risk Time"





Dow Jones down 250, and a new bearish letter from Bob Janjuah? Lucky coincidence? Or conspiracy? You decide. From Bob: "How to play it? The SPX is the obvious pure risk short because of how rich it is against other equity markets. Outright is fine, so are options. Take a look at January 1350 puts for example currently trading at 20. If doing outright we would recommend a stop just above the recent highs at 1475. We also like the USD and Treasuries because the market has seen time and time again US problems do not lead to selling of (safe) US assets and it can and we think will be the same again."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: October 18





  • Germany will pay Greek aid (Spiegel)
  • Spain Banks Face More Pain as Worst-Case Scenario Turns Real (Bloomberg)
  • China’s Growth Continues to Slow (WSJ)
  • Executives Lack Confidence in U.S. Competitiveness (WSJ)
  • Poor Market Conditions will See 180 Solar Manufacturers Fail by 2015 (OilPrice)
  • Wen upbeat on China’s economy (FT)
  • Gold remains popular, despite the doubts of economists (Economist)
  • Armstrong Stands to Lose $30 Million as Sponsors Flee (Bloomberg)
  • IMF urges aid for Italy, Spain but Rome baulking (Reuters)
  • EU Summit Highlights Financial Divide (WSJ)
  • FOMC Straying on Price Target, Former Fed Officials Say (Bloomberg)
  • Putin defiant over weapons sales (FT)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: October 12





  • OECD: Japan Public Debt in 'Uncharted Territory' (WSJ)
  • Germany holds firm on Greece as IMF pressure mounts (Reuters)
  • Schäuble and Lagarde clash over austerity (FT) - it would be great if someone actually implemented austerity...
  • Merkel hints at tax cuts for growth boost (FT)
  • Hollande Robbed of Growth Engine as Companies Cut Investment (BBG)
  • Romney Narrows Gap With Obama in Swing State Polling (BBG)
  • Sluggish Growth Seen Into Next Year (WSJ)
  • Softbank Founder Has 300-Year Plan in Wooing Sprint Nextel (BBG)
  • Singapore Forgoes Currency Stimulus on Inflation Risk (Bloomberg) - as does China day after day
  • Sharp Jabs Dominate Combative Vice-Presidential Debate (WSJ)
  • Japan and China Agree to Hold Talks on Rift After Noda Call (Bloomberg)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: October 11





  • Global easing deluge resumes: Bank of Korea Slashes Policy Rate (WSJ)
  • And Brazil: Brazil cuts Selic rate to new record low of 7.25 pct (Reuters)
  • With Tapes, Authorities Build Criminal Cases Over JPMorgan Loss (NYT) Just don't hold your breath
  • IMF snub reveals China’s political priorities (FT)
  • Add a dash of trade wars: Revised Duties Imposed by U.S. on Chinese Solar Equipment (Bloomberg)
  • IMF calls for action as euro zone crisis festers (Reuters)
  • Dubai Losing Billions as Insecure Expats Send Money Abroad (BBG)
  • Softbank in Advanced Talks to Acquire Sprint Nextel (WSJ)
  • Lagarde calls for brake on austerity (FT)
  • EU lambasts Turkey over freedoms (FT)
  • Race Tightens in Two States (WSJ)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: October 9





  • Rajoy’s Deepening Budget Black Hole Outpaces Spain’s Cuts (Bloomberg)
  • ECB May Need to Cut Rates Given Deflation Risk, IMF Says (Bloomberg)
  • Global Recession Risk Rises (WSJ)
  • Romney Leads Obama in Pew Likely Voter Poll After Debate (Bloomberg)
  • IMF Sees Global Risk in China-Japan Spat (WSJ)
  • Republicans shift tone on taxing the rich (FT)
  • Romney casts Obama's foreign policy as weak, dangerous (Reuters)
  • Europe Salutes Greek Budget-Cutting Will, Raising Aid Prospects (Bloomberg)
  • U.S. Downgrade Seen as Upgrade as U.S. Debt Dissolved (Bloomberg)
  • IMF Says Most Advanced Nations Making Progress Reducing Deficits (Bloomberg)
  • Eurozone launches €500bn rescue fund (FT)
 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Is China an economic miracle, or one massive Government-­sponsored fraud?





History has shown us countless times that centrally-­?planned, command style economies do not produce long-­?term economic growth. We’ve seen this will the Soviet Union, the UK, the US-­?since the Tech Crash, and today in China.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: October 5





  • Draghi Says Next Move Not His as Spain Resists Bailout (Bloomberg)
  • EU Doubts on Deficit Cutting May Hinder Spain’s Path to Bailout (Bloomberg)
  • Merkel to Visit Greece for First Time Since Crisis Outbreak (Bloomberg)
  • Fed's Bullard warns inflation won't ease U.S. debt burden (Reuters)
  • Walmart Workers Stage a Walkout in California (NYT)
  • Natural Gas Glut Pushes Exports (WSJ)
  • BOJ Refrains From More Stimulus as Political Pressure Mounts (Bloomberg)
  • Big funds seek to rein in pay at Wall Street banks (Reuters)
  • Hong Kong Luxury Sales Fall as Chinese Curb Spending (Bloomberg)
  • Dave and Busters Pulls IPO due to "Market Conditions" (Reuters) - so market at anything but all time highs now is market conditions?
  • Weak U.S. labor market looms ahead of elections (Reuters)
  • Glut of Solar Panels Poses a New Threat to China (NYT)
 
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