Nomura

Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: October 30





  • U.S. Super Storm’s Record Flooding Lands Blackout Blow (Bloomberg)
  • Sandy Carves a Path of Destruction Across the U.S. East Coast (WSJ)
  • Losses May Exceed Those of 2011 Storm (WSJ)
  • Hurricane Sandy Threatens $20 Billion in Economic Damage (Bloomberg)
  • Huge fire in Sandy's wake destroys dozens of NYC homes (Reuters)
  • Possible levee break in New Jersey floods three towns (Reuters)
  • Apple Mobile Software Head Forstall Refused to Sign Apology (WSJ)
  • Stagflation in Spain (Bloomberg)
  • German Oct. Unemployment Rose Twice as Much as Forecast (Bloomberg)
  • A declining Japan loses its once-hopeful champions (WaPo)
  • Unable to copy it, China tries building own jet engine (Reuters)
  • Obama Signs Disaster Declarations for NY, NJ (YNN)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

When ¥11 Trillion Is Not Enough: Japan's QE 9 Disappoints, Halflife Zero, Time For QE 10





It was only yesterday that we pointed out the ever decreasing halflives of central bank interventions. We are grateful that none other than the biggest intervention basket case of all came out and proved us 100% correct, when the BOJ announced none other than QE 9 just one month after the impact from QE 8 fizzled about 8 hours after it was disclosed. This time around, the destructive "benefit" to the JPY was negative from the first second, resulting in the first instance of monetary easing that.. wasn't. Japan just came up with a brand new New Normal concept: tightening through easing, when its ¥11 trillion intervention proved to be woefully insufficient for a market addicted to ever more liquidity injections.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Chart Of The Day: How To Grow Your Way To Prosperity Through Tax Hikes





...or not! As can be seen in the chart below showing the change in Spanish retail sales, there is nothing like a tax hike, in this case "Value Added", to completely obliterate any hope of increased economic transactions, monetary velocity or, well, general prosperity. In the least surprising data point of the day, Spanish retail sales plunged at their fastest rate on record (12.6% YoY) to complete the 27th month in a row of YoY drops. This nation whose economy is struggling through its second recession in three years and plagued by chronically high unemployment, has seen only three months of positive YoY comps for retail spending since November 2007. Whether this is a nation retrenching pure-and-simple on the back of anti-growth policies or an increasing amount of retail sales are completed in the gray market is unclear (as we discussed here); one thing is clear, Spain is bad and getting worse (bailout or no bailout), and as Reuters reports: "It's clear there are no signs the crisis is abating," economist at Nomura Silvio Peruzzo said. "The headline (retail) figures show a sharp drop and indicate that domestic demand is not going to be anywhere near what the government is anticipating."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: October 24





  • China May Forgo Easing as Economy Rebounds, Survey Shows (Bloomberg)... or as food and house inflation has never gone away
  • China Edges Out U.S. as Top Foreign-Investment Draw Amid World Decline (WSJ)
  • Fed to keep buying bonds despite firmer U.S. growth (Reuters)
  • Bernanke Seen Attacking Jobless Rate With QE Until His Term Ends (Bloomberg)
  • Mortgage applications plunge 12%, down for third week in a row (Dow Jones)
  • Exchanges Retreat on Trading Tools - Fund Managers, Regulators Say Certain Orders Are Risky, Aid High-Speed Firms (WSJ)
  • Europe Bank Chief to Defend Bond-Buying Plan (WSJ)
  • Japan, China Envoys Met Last Week for Talks on Island Feud (Bloomberg)
  • Goldman’s Pill Says ‘Guerrilla’ ECB to Impose Losses on Skeptics (BBG)
  • Chance rise of an Obama defeat (FT)
  • King Says BOE Is Ready to Add to QE If U.K. Recovery Fades (Bloomberg)
  • Rajoy Sees Case for Slowing Spain’s Austerity as Economy Shrinks (BusinessWeek)
  • Hong Kong Intervenes to Defend Peg as Upper Limit Tested (Bloomberg)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

As Market Plunges, Bob Janjuah Opines: "Tactical Short Risk Time"





Dow Jones down 250, and a new bearish letter from Bob Janjuah? Lucky coincidence? Or conspiracy? You decide. From Bob: "How to play it? The SPX is the obvious pure risk short because of how rich it is against other equity markets. Outright is fine, so are options. Take a look at January 1350 puts for example currently trading at 20. If doing outright we would recommend a stop just above the recent highs at 1475. We also like the USD and Treasuries because the market has seen time and time again US problems do not lead to selling of (safe) US assets and it can and we think will be the same again."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: October 18





  • Germany will pay Greek aid (Spiegel)
  • Spain Banks Face More Pain as Worst-Case Scenario Turns Real (Bloomberg)
  • China’s Growth Continues to Slow (WSJ)
  • Executives Lack Confidence in U.S. Competitiveness (WSJ)
  • Poor Market Conditions will See 180 Solar Manufacturers Fail by 2015 (OilPrice)
  • Wen upbeat on China’s economy (FT)
  • Gold remains popular, despite the doubts of economists (Economist)
  • Armstrong Stands to Lose $30 Million as Sponsors Flee (Bloomberg)
  • IMF urges aid for Italy, Spain but Rome baulking (Reuters)
  • EU Summit Highlights Financial Divide (WSJ)
  • FOMC Straying on Price Target, Former Fed Officials Say (Bloomberg)
  • Putin defiant over weapons sales (FT)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: October 12





  • OECD: Japan Public Debt in 'Uncharted Territory' (WSJ)
  • Germany holds firm on Greece as IMF pressure mounts (Reuters)
  • Schäuble and Lagarde clash over austerity (FT) - it would be great if someone actually implemented austerity...
  • Merkel hints at tax cuts for growth boost (FT)
  • Hollande Robbed of Growth Engine as Companies Cut Investment (BBG)
  • Romney Narrows Gap With Obama in Swing State Polling (BBG)
  • Sluggish Growth Seen Into Next Year (WSJ)
  • Softbank Founder Has 300-Year Plan in Wooing Sprint Nextel (BBG)
  • Singapore Forgoes Currency Stimulus on Inflation Risk (Bloomberg) - as does China day after day
  • Sharp Jabs Dominate Combative Vice-Presidential Debate (WSJ)
  • Japan and China Agree to Hold Talks on Rift After Noda Call (Bloomberg)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: October 11





  • Global easing deluge resumes: Bank of Korea Slashes Policy Rate (WSJ)
  • And Brazil: Brazil cuts Selic rate to new record low of 7.25 pct (Reuters)
  • With Tapes, Authorities Build Criminal Cases Over JPMorgan Loss (NYT) Just don't hold your breath
  • IMF snub reveals China’s political priorities (FT)
  • Add a dash of trade wars: Revised Duties Imposed by U.S. on Chinese Solar Equipment (Bloomberg)
  • IMF calls for action as euro zone crisis festers (Reuters)
  • Dubai Losing Billions as Insecure Expats Send Money Abroad (BBG)
  • Softbank in Advanced Talks to Acquire Sprint Nextel (WSJ)
  • Lagarde calls for brake on austerity (FT)
  • EU lambasts Turkey over freedoms (FT)
  • Race Tightens in Two States (WSJ)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: October 9





  • Rajoy’s Deepening Budget Black Hole Outpaces Spain’s Cuts (Bloomberg)
  • ECB May Need to Cut Rates Given Deflation Risk, IMF Says (Bloomberg)
  • Global Recession Risk Rises (WSJ)
  • Romney Leads Obama in Pew Likely Voter Poll After Debate (Bloomberg)
  • IMF Sees Global Risk in China-Japan Spat (WSJ)
  • Republicans shift tone on taxing the rich (FT)
  • Romney casts Obama's foreign policy as weak, dangerous (Reuters)
  • Europe Salutes Greek Budget-Cutting Will, Raising Aid Prospects (Bloomberg)
  • U.S. Downgrade Seen as Upgrade as U.S. Debt Dissolved (Bloomberg)
  • IMF Says Most Advanced Nations Making Progress Reducing Deficits (Bloomberg)
  • Eurozone launches €500bn rescue fund (FT)
 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Is China an economic miracle, or one massive Government-­sponsored fraud?





History has shown us countless times that centrally-­?planned, command style economies do not produce long-­?term economic growth. We’ve seen this will the Soviet Union, the UK, the US-­?since the Tech Crash, and today in China.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: October 5





  • Draghi Says Next Move Not His as Spain Resists Bailout (Bloomberg)
  • EU Doubts on Deficit Cutting May Hinder Spain’s Path to Bailout (Bloomberg)
  • Merkel to Visit Greece for First Time Since Crisis Outbreak (Bloomberg)
  • Fed's Bullard warns inflation won't ease U.S. debt burden (Reuters)
  • Walmart Workers Stage a Walkout in California (NYT)
  • Natural Gas Glut Pushes Exports (WSJ)
  • BOJ Refrains From More Stimulus as Political Pressure Mounts (Bloomberg)
  • Big funds seek to rein in pay at Wall Street banks (Reuters)
  • Hong Kong Luxury Sales Fall as Chinese Curb Spending (Bloomberg)
  • Dave and Busters Pulls IPO due to "Market Conditions" (Reuters) - so market at anything but all time highs now is market conditions?
  • Weak U.S. labor market looms ahead of elections (Reuters)
  • Glut of Solar Panels Poses a New Threat to China (NYT)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: October 4





  • Romney dominates presidential debate (FT)
  • What Romney’s Debate Victory Means (Bloomberg)
  • Obama Lead Shrinks in Two Battlegrounds (WSJ)
  • "Everything will fall apart unless the Spanish conditions are extremely tough" German policy-maker (Telegraph)
  • Draghi Stares at Spain as Brinkmanship Keeps ECB Waiting (Bloomberg)
  • RBS facing loss after Spanish property firm collapse (Telegraph)
  • Burdened by Old Mortgages, Banks Are Slow to Lend Now (WSJ)
  • The Woman Who Took the Fall for JPMorgan Chase (NYT)
  • European Banks Told to Hold On to $258 Billion of Fresh Capital (Bloomberg)
  • Europe Weighs More Sanctions as Iran’s Currency Plummets (Bloomberg)
 
GoldCore's picture

Gold and Silver Risk October Correction Ahead of U.S. Election Day





Today’s AM fix was USD 1,766.75, EUR 1,369.36, GBP 1,088.37 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,758.50, EUR 1,361.91 and GBP 1,084.96 per ounce.

Gold fell $8.60 or 0.49% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,764.50. Silver slipped to a low of $33.594 then rebounded in New York, but it still finished with a loss of 1.62%.


Gold Seasonality Chart - Heatmap

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: September 25





  • China carrier a show of force as Japan tension festers (Reuters)
  • Draghi Rally Lets Skeptics Dump Spain for Bunds (Bloomberg)
  • China’s Central Bank Injects Record Funds to Ease Cash Crunch (Bloomberg)
  • Obama warns Iran on nuclear bid, containment 'no option' (Reuters)
  • When Would Bernanke’s Successor Raise Rates? (WSJ) that's easy - never
  • Italy's Monti Downplays Sovereignty Risk (WSJ)
  • Portugal swaps pay cuts for tax rises (FT)
  • Madrid faces regional funding backlash (FT)
  • Berlin Seeks to Push Back New Euro-Crisis Aid Requests (WSJ)
  • Race Focuses on Foreign Policy (WSJ)
  • China Speeds Up Approvals of Foreigners’ Stock Investment (Bloomberg)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Janjuah Stopped Out





While Nomura's Bob Janjuah remains 100% correct in his diagnosis and prognosis of the current 'grossest misallocation and mispricing of capital in the history of mankind', his tactical short was stopped out last week. The modest loss on the position though provided clarity on the importance of the 1450 level for the S&P 500 and he remains confident that on a multi-month timeframe he expects 800 to be hit with only a muted 10% possible upside in global equities due to underlying growth, debt and policy-maker concerns. Critically, he suggests it is premature to go aggressively short risk at this precise moment, urges traders to stay nimble, and warns "...risk assets are in a bubble which of course can extend, but which can reverse sharply and suddenly. Up here, 'valuation metrics' are not going to help much... this bubble could extend for maybe a few months and by up to 10%, ...but that we could see global equity markets 10/15% lower in virtually a 'heartbeat'."

 
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