Nomura

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Frontrunning: April 29





  • Gold Bears Defy Rally as Goldman Closes Short Wager (BBG)
  • Still stuck on central-bank life support (Reuters)
  • Ebbing Inflation Means More Easy Money (BBG)
  • So much for socialist wealth redistribution then? François Hollande to woo French business with tax cut (FT)
  • Billionaires Flee Havens as Trillions Pursued Offshore (BBG)
  • Companies Feel Pinch on Sales in Europe (WSJ)
  • Brussels plan will ‘kill off’ money funds (FT)
  • Danes as Most-Indebted in World Resist Credit (BBG)
  • Syria says prime minister survives Damascus bomb attack (Reuters)
  • Syria: Al-Qaeda's battle for control of Assad's chemical weapons plant (Telegraph)
  • Nokia Betting on $20 Handset as It Loses Ground on IPhone (BBG)
  • Rapid rise of chat apps slims texting cash cow for mobile groups (FT)
  • Calgary bitcoin exchange fighting bank backlash in Canada (Calgary Herald)
 
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Frontrunning: April 25





  • UK economy shows 0.3% growth (FT)
  • Texas University Fund Sold $375 Million in Gold Bars (BBG)
  • Spain Jobless Rate Breaches 27% on Recession Woes (BBG)
  • Letta calls for easing of austerity policies (FT)
  • Italy Led by Letta Brings Berlusconi Back as Winner (BBG)
  • Fed Debate Moves From Tapering to Extending Bond Buying (BBG)
  • South Korea wants talks with North on shuttered industrial zone (Reuters)
  • Republicans advance bill to prepare for debt ceiling fight (Reuters)
  • Republicans claim White House failed to warn on severity of cuts (FT)
  • Xi meets former US heavyweights (China Daily)
  • Next BoE chief Carney says clear framework key to policy success (Reuters)
  • Chinese roll out red carpet for Hollande (FT)
 
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Italy's Monte Paschi Got A Sovereign Bailout To Avoid Being Corzined





Those who think back to November 2011 will recall that it wasn't Jon Corzine's wrong way bet on Italian bonds that ultimately led to the bankruptcy of MF Global, well it did in part, but the real Chapter 11 cause was the sudden liquidity shortage due to the way the trades were structured as a Repo To Maturity, where the bank had hoped to collect the carry from the bond coupons, thereby offsetting the nominal repo cost of funding. The kind of deal which is the very definition of collecting pennies in front of a steamroller, as while the funding cost may be tiny and the capital allocated negligible (due to the nearly infinite implied leverage involved when using repo), when the underlying instrument crashes, and the originating counterparty has to fund a massive variation margin shortfall, that is when the shadow transformation cascade triggers an immediate liquidity crisis, which can result in liquidation cascade in a few brief hours. It happened with MF Global, it happened with Lehman too. And, we now learn, it also happened with Italy's most troubled and oldest bank, Monte Paschi (BMPS), whose endless bailouts, political intrigue, depoit runs, and cooked books have all been covered extensively here previously.

 

 
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Japan's Inflation Propaganda And Why The BoJ Better Hope It's Not Successful





The existing (and ongoing) massive expansion of base money into the banking systems of the US, England, and Japan is without precedent. As Nomura's Richard Koo notes, at 16x statutory reserves, the liquidity 'should' have led to unprecedented inflation rates of 1,600% in the US, 970% in the UK, and 480% in Japan. However, it has not, yet. In short, Koo explains, businesses and households in these economies have stopped borrowing money even though interest rates have fallen to zero. There is little physical or mechanical reason for the BOJ’s easing program to work. But the program could also have a psychological impact - and Japanese media is on an 'inflation' full-court press currently. The risk here is that not only borrowers but also lenders will start to believe the lies. No financial institutions anticipating inflation could ever lend money at current interest rates. No actual damage will be done as long as the easing program remains ineffective. But once it starts to affect psychology, the BOJ needs to quickly reverse the policy and bring the monetary base back to 'normal'. If the policy reversal is delayed, the Japanese economy (and inflation) could spiral out of control.

 
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Overnight Sentiment: Attempting A Rebound





Following yesterday's most recent Europe-led rout, the market is attempting a modest rebound, driven by the usual carry funding currency pair (EURUSD and USDJPY) levitation, although so far succeeding only modestly with not nearly enough overnight ramp to offset the bulk of yesterday's losses. In a centrally-planned, currency war-waging world, it is sad that only two key FX pairs matter in setting risk levels. But it is beyond hypocritical and highly ironic that according to a draft, the G-20 will affirm a commitment to "avoid weakening their currencies to gain an advantage for their exports." So the G-20 issues a statement saying nobody is doing it, when everyone is, thus making it ok to cheapen your exports into "competitiveness"? In other words, if everyone lies, nobody lies. Of course, also when everyone eases, nobody eases, and the world is back to square one. But that will only become clear eventually.

 
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Frontrunning: April 17





  • Boston bomb probe looking at pressure cooker, backpacks (Reuters), Boston Bomb Clues Surface (WSJ) Forensic Investigators Discover Clues to Boston Bombing (BBG)
  • China local authority debt ‘out of control’ (FT)
  • Gold Wipes $560 Billion From Central Banks as Equities Rally (BBG)... or the same impact a 2% rise in rates would have on the Fed's balance sheet
  • More Wall Street leakage: Stock Surge Linked to Lobbyist (WSJ)
  • China's bird flu death toll rises to 16, government warns of spread (Reuters)
  • Chinese official endorses monetary easing (FT)
  • As global price slumps, "Abenomics" risks drive Japan gold bugs (Reuters)
  • North Korea rejects US call for talks (FT)
  • IMF Renews Push Against Austerity (WSJ)
  • India Gains as Gold Plunge Boosts Scope for Rate Cuts (BBG)
  • Germany set to approve Cyprus aid (FT)
  • Easing Is an Issue as G-20 Meets (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: April 16





  • Investigators hunt for clues in marathon bombing (Reuters)
  • Investigators scour video, photos for Boston Marathon bomb clues (Reuters)
  • 'Act of Terror' Kills at Least Three, Injures About 140 as Bombs Wreak Carnage on Marathon Crowd (WSJ)
  • Brent Crude Below $100 (WSJ)
  • Slower China Growth Signals Days of Miracles Are Waning (WSJ)
  • Central Banks at Ease Limit Risk Political Backlash (BBG)
  • Merkel plans to quit midterm, says author (FT)
  • Monte Paschi Prosecutors Seize $2.3 Billion of Nomura Assets (Businessweek)
  • Treasuries back on investors’ buy lists (FT)
  • J.C. Penney Said to Seek Ways to Separate Real Estate for Cash (BBG)
  • Climate scientists struggle to explain warming slowdown (Reuters)
  • Putin Calls for Stimulus Plan After Recession Alarm (BBG)
  • TIPS in Longest Selloff Since ’08 as U.S. Bancorp Cuts (BBG)
 
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Overnight Sentiment: Gold Rout Halted For Now





Yes, there was economic news overnight, such as a Eurozone and UK CPI, both of which came in line with expectations (1.7% and 0.4% respectively), and a German ZEW which confirmed Europe's accelerating deterioration, tumbling from 48.5 to 36.3, far below expectations of a 41.0 print (somehow the huge miss has managed to push the EURUSD up by 60 pips to an overnight high of 1.31 but this is merely the pre-US open manipulation to ramp US equities higher), just as there was news that Angela Merkel's support for a Cyprus bailout is growing (was there an alternative?), and that as part of their ongoing investigation into Italy's repeatedly insolvent Monte Paschi, investigators had seized €1.8 billion worth of assets from Nomura Holdings, and that Spain as usual sold more Bills than expected, driven by oversize Japanese and Pension Fund purchases, but what everyone has been looking for is whether the relentless and record rout in gold is over. For now, it appears that is the case, with gold printing an overnight low of just over $1320 and ramping higher ever since, up 3% so far and rising.

 
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Frontrunning: April 15





  • Venezuela Says Chávez Successor Wins Vote (WSJ)
  • China growth risks in focus as first quarter data falls short (Reuters)
  • Japan Gets Calls From U.S. to Europe Not to Drive Down Yen (BBG)
  • EU Set to Clash on Bank Deal as Germany Sees Treaty Limit (BBG)
  • Dish Launches $25.5 Billion Bid for Sprint (WSJ)
  • Commodities Tumble, Stocks Slide as China Growth Slows (BBG)
  • Top fund managers take home $8bn less (FT)
  • Obama Programs Derided by Republicans as Pejorative Entitlements (BBG)
  • Gene swapping makes new China bird flu a moving target (Reuters)
  • McDonald's Cranks Up The Volume on 'Value' (WSJ)
  • UK pension deficits set to rise by £100bn (FT)
 
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Frontrunning: April 11





  • Obama to report to his bosses today: Obama Meets With Blankfein, Dimon and Moynihan Today (BBG)
  • 2007 is here all over again: Seeking Relief, Banks Shift Risk to Murkier Corners (NYT)
  • Kuroda Calls BOJ Inflation Target 'Flexible' (WSJ)
  • Lagarde warns over three-speed world (FT)
  • N. Korea’s Retro Propaganda Calls U.S. Boiled Pumpkin (BBG)
  • Luxembourg To Ease Bank Secrecy Rule, Share Data In 2015 (BBG)
  • Bank of Korea Keeps Policy Steady (WSJ)
  • BOE Stimulus Dilemma Persists as Inflation Seen Higher (BBG)
  • EU Sounds Alarm on Spain (WSJ)
  • Qatar gives Egypt $3bn aid package (FT)
  • RBNZ Says Deposit Insurance May Increase Risk of Bank Failure (BBG)
  • Plosser Calls for Reducing QE Pace Citing Gains in Labor Market (BBG)
  • Obama budget aims to kick start deficit-reduction talks (Reuters)
 
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Fed Releases Names Of Early FOMC Minutes Recipients: Include Employees Of ECB, Goldman, Barclays, JPM, Law And PE Firms





We will release the full list of named recipients once we get it, but here is what we now for now, via BBG and CNN:

  • EMPLOYEES AT GOLDMAN SACHS, BARCLAYS, JP MORGAN, CITI, NOMURA, UBS, HSBC RECEIVED FED MINUTES EARLY YESTERDAY
  • MOST OF THE BANK EMPLOYEES APPEAR TO WORK IN GOVERNMENTAL RELATIONS (Lobbies)
  • ABA, SIFMA, SENATE STAFFERS RECEIVED FED MINUTES EARLY
  • FED NAMES 154 RECIPIENTS OF EARLY RELEASE OF FOMC MINUTES
  • FED MINUTES SENT EARLY TO BANKS, LAW FIRMS, PRIVATE EQUITY
  • FED EARLIER SAID RELEASE WENT MAINLY TO CONGRESS, TRADE GROUPS
  • NONE OF THE PEOPLE ON THE LIST ALERTED THE FED THAT THEY RECEIVED NONPUBLIC INFO A DAY EARLY

In other words: absolutely everyone who trades risk assets for a living.

 
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Frontrunning: April 9





  • JPMorgan Leads Job Cuts as Banks Seek to Bolster Profit (BBG)
  • North Koreans don't show for work at Kaesong factory park (Reuters), as NK urges foreigners to leave South Korea (FT)
  • Lisbon Struggles to Close New Budget Gap (WSJ)
  • Portugal may face delay to bailout funds (FT)
  • Putin Squeezing Out UBS to Deutsche Bank Using Oligarchs (BBG)
  • China's Xi Says Fast Growth Over (WSJ)
  • Spain’s PM wants more powers for ECB (FT)
  • Bernanke Says Interest on Reserves Would Be Main Tightening Tool (BBG)
  • Bird Flu Claims 7th Victim in China (WSJ)
  • Texting While Flying Linked to Commercial Helicopter Crash (BBG)... No, Bernanke wasn't the pilot
 
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US Savings Rate Near Record Low, Per Capita Disposable Income Almost Back To December 2006 Level





For those claiming there is something called a "recovery" underway, perhaps they can point out just where on this chart of Real Disposable Income per capita one can find said recovery. Because we are confused: with the average Real Disposable Income of $32,663 per person, or lower than where it was in December 2006 ($32,729), one may be excused for scratching their head.

 
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Cyprus Contagion Spreads As European "Omnishambles" Return; Euro Under 1.28 For First Time Since November





While everyone likes to hate on Cyprus, it is Italy that is the focal point of today's European "omnishambles" that has seen the EURUSD tumble to a five month low as of this writing. First it was economic data that scared investors, with Industrial Sales and Orders tumbling far below expected, posting numbers of -1.3% and -1.4%, respectively, on expectations of an increase. Retail sales were just as ugly, declining by -0.5% in January, on expectations of an unchanged print, with the December 0.2% number revised also into negative territory. Then Bersani, who has been tasked to form a government until tomorrow, said that the possibility of a broad coalition government does not exist, adding that no lasting government is possible without him as a premier, and requesting that Grillo's Five Star party not block his path to government, for which we wish him the best of luck as moments later Five Star ruled out all external support for a broad government and would vote no confidence for Bersani. Then we got news that the Italian financial police has searched the Nomura in Milan in connection with the Monte Paschi case, which means even more skeletons in the closet are about to be uncovered. Finally, Italy just held a 3.5% 5 and 4.5% 10 year bond auction in which the country raised less than the maximum targeted €7 billion, and in which the Bid to Cover on the 5 Year dumping to the lowest since 2002, with bidding quite soft and the yield rising to 3.65% versus 3.59% previously. This has resulted in a blow out in Italian yields by 16 bps to 4.73% compared to 4.705% earlier. End result, as noted yesterday, has been an acceleration in the rush out of the EUR, with the EURUSD sliding to under 1.28 for the first time since November 21, a blow out in Greek bonds with yields pushing up 55 bps to 12.68% and a push for real safety (sorry, not the DJIA) in the form of German 2 Year bonds, which have dipped to -0.018%, the lowest since December, on rising fears that despite endless lies out of its bureaucrats, Europe may not be fixed after all.

 
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Bob Janjuah Tactical Short But "We Are Not There Yet" For The Big One





Following Nomura's Bob Janjuah's 'wine into water... are we there yet?' note in February, the market has followed his script almost perfectly with a continued push to new highs and a small sell-off that was bought excitedly. While he remains convinced that "in terms of positioning and sentiment, we are 'not there yet'," for his 50% S&P 500 plunge; he does believe Q2 will see a 5-10% dip to 1450 as the shambolic policy responses to Cyprus and the 'cat' that #DieselBoom 'let out the bag' add to increasingly weak global growth data. While this dip will also likely be bought, the bearded bear expects the market's comeuppance to arrive late 2013.

 
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