• GoldCore
    07/23/2014 - 07:21
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Non Farm Payrolls

GoldCore's picture

How to Invest Gold In Your Pension Plan





Irish citizens can invest in gold bullion in their pension funds since 2007 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Too Much Faith Is Being Placed In Untested Theories





We are growing more concerned by the day by the actions of the central banks.  It isn’t just that markets popped and dropped dramatically before and after Draghi’s rate cut, or that any policy seems particularly bad, just that the policies don’t seem to be working great, and are leaving a changed landscape that will need to be corrected, somehow, in the future.  We are quite simply concerned that too much faith is being placed in untested theories that may or may not work, or may or may not even be correct.

 
AVFMS's picture

05 Oct 2012 – “ Let’s Work Together ” (Canned Heat, 1970)





What can be said? Rinse, repeat, rinse, repeat.

Everyone basking into the market truce provided by Super Mario. And taking some easy time off… 

Friday afternoon Periphery squeeze barn stomp

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Key Upcoming Events





Europe took August off. Today, it is America's turn, as the country celebrates Labor day, although judging by recent trends in the new 'Part-time" normal, a phenomenon we have been writing about for years, and which even the NYT has finally latched on to, it would appear the holiday should really be Labor Half-Day. After today the time for doing nothing is over, and with less than one month left in the quarter, and trading volumes running 30% below normal which would guarantee bank earnings in Q3 are absolutely abysmal, the financial system is in dire need of volume, i.e. volatility. Luckily, things are finally heating up as the newsflow (sorry but rumors, insinuations, innuendo, and empty promises will no longer cut it) out of various central banks soars, coupled with key elections first in the Netherlands and then of course, in the US, not to mention the whole debt-ceiling/ fiscal cliff 'thing' to follow before 2012 is over. So for those who still care about events and news, here is the most comprehensive summary of the key catalysts over the next week and month, which are merely an appetizer for even more volatile newsflow in October and into the end of the year.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

July Non Farm Payrolls Slam Expectations At 163,000K, Unemployment Rate 8.Rises To 3%





Expectations were +100,000, NFP prints at 163,000K. Goodbye QE in 2012.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Seasonal Adjustments: Big Swing Factor?





While Knight's algos will be focusing on the headline number and furiously calculating if [X AS PRINTED] is < or > than [X AS EXPECTED] and simplistically moving the market up or down accordingly, without regard for quality or compoisition (they don't call it the Part-Time Non Farm Payrolls for nothing), another key swing factor in July will be the seasonal adjustment. As a reminder, as the chart below shows, in July we experience a major swing event. While in June, seasonal factors typically subtract about 1 million from the headline non-seasonally adjusted headline number, in June we invert, and instead of subtracting, seasonal factors for the first time since April "add" jobs. 295,000 (past decade average) to be exact. How will this impact the actual number? We will find out shortly. One thing to note: of the 100,000 consensus headline adjusted print, the seasonal adjustment factor itself will be roughly three times the actual print that will move the market. In a year of record temperature abnormalities and the "average seasonal adjustment" being anything but, we leave it up to readers to do with this data as they see fit.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Today's "Max Pain" - A Stronger Than Expected Non Farm Payrolls Report





While normally quite absurd, we do have to admit that last month, Deutsche Bank's Joe LaVorgna was among the analysts closest to the final actual number, which came in far below consensus. As such we give him the benefit of the first forecast: Joe LaVorgna is expecting a headline/private payroll increase of 75k/80k respectively. The market is looking for 100k/110k. Unemployment is expected to hold at 8.2%. The irony today is that max pain is a far stronger number, which in light of some very recent economic news, can not be ruled out (see Nick Colas' discussion below): if indeed NFP rises by well over 100,000 the market will have to push back its prayer that the NEW QE will come in September into 2013 as Bernanke will not do another easing round just as the presidential election approaches. What are some others thinking? Here is what Bank of America says.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

US Added 115,000 Jobs In April, Huge Miss Of Expectations; Unemployment Rate 8.1%





Expectations were for an increase in non farm payrolls of 160,000, and a 8.2% unemployment rate. We got +115,000, and 130,000 privates. Unemployment rate at 8.1%, lowest since January 2009. Schrodinger is alive and well.

More shortly

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: February 14





  • BOJ Adds to Monetary Easing After Contraction (Bloomberg)
  • EU to punish Spain for deficits, inaction (Reuters)
  • Obama, China's Xi to tread cautiously in White House talks (Reuters)
  • Global suicide 2020: We can’t feed 10 billion (MarketWatch)
  • Greece rushes to meet lender demands (Reuters)
  • Obama Budget Sets Up Election-Year Tax Fight (Reuters)
  • Foreign Outcry Over ‘Volcker Rule’ Plans (FT)
  • Moody’s Shifts Outlook for UK and France (FT)
  • France to Push On With Trading Tax (FT)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Non Farm Payrolls Soar By 243K, Unemployment Rate Drops To 8.3%





Whopper of a NFP number, which prints at 243K, higher than the biggest forecast of 225K, on consensus expectations of 140K, the biggest jump since February 2009. The devil will certainly be in the revision details.

More shortly.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

August Total Non Farm Payrolls Come At -54K On Consensus Of -105K, Unchanged From July, Unemployment Rate 9.6%, Birth Death Adds 115K





Private payrolls come in at +67K as Birth Death adds 115K, compared to just 6K previously, as U-6 rises from 16.5 to 16.7%, highest since April. Total Part time workers (all industries) increased by 401k from 18,157 to 18,558; part time workers for economic reasons increased by 331K. Workweek unchanged month over month at 34.2 hours, with average hourly earnings up slightly from 0.2% to 0.3%. 42% of the unemployed were out of a job for 27 weeks or longer, compared to 44.9% previously; average duration of unemployment at 33.6 weeks.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Non Farm Payrolls Come At -226K After Census (411K), Temporary (31K), And Birth-Death Adjustment (215K)





So much for that 700,000 expectation. At 431k, less 411k census, and 31k from temporary help services, it sure doesn't look good even without the 215k birth-death adjustment which only conspiracy theorists look at according to Mr. Liesman. 431k minus 411k minus 31k minus 215k = -226k. Nuf said. In other news, those unemployed longer than 27 weeks hits a new record at 46%. Nothing conspiratorial about that number.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

March Non Farm Payrolls: +162K, Below Consensus, Unemployment Rate 9.7%, Ex-Census, Weather and Birth-Death NFP Change Is -67K





Key data points for March: change in NFP: 162K; of these - Census +48K; Weather ~+100K; Birth/Death +81: Net -67,000. Underemployment increased to 16.9%. In the meantime the dollar is surging, and the 10 Year is approaching 4.00%

 
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