Non-manufacturing ISM

Asian Market Rout Goes Global On Tech, Tax And Government Shutdown Tremors

A selloff which started in Asia, driven by renewed liquidation of Chinese and Hong Kong tech stocks and accelerated by weaker metal prices which pushed the Shanghai Composite below a key support and to 4 month lows, spread to Europe and the rest of the world as investors continued to lock in year-end gains among the best performing assets amid a broad risk-off mood.

Previewing The September "Hurricane-Disrupted" Jobs Report

Tomorrow's hurricane-affected September jobs report will be... confusing. That is the (lack of) consensus from Wall Street analysts, who expect an average print of 80,000 (down from the 3-month average of 185K), however with huge variance on either side, with 4 economists predicting a loss of jobs, three expecting a print higher than 150K and one optimistic forecaster going as high as 260,000.

June Payrolls Preview: With The Fed On Autopilot, You Can Skip This One

After a poor March jobs report, followed by an April scorcher, then another debacle in May, the June payrolls report due at 8:30am will be... very much irrelevant, because as Citi pointed out earlier, the Fed is now data-indepdendent and will keep hiking until financial conditions finally tighten (read: stocks drop). For what it's worth, here are the consensus expectations for tomorrow's report.

Global Bond Rout Sends S&P Futures, European Stocks Sliding

S&P futures are sliding this morning, down 0.4% and tracking the accelerating decline in European and Asian stocks, driven by a move higher in global interest rates, which started with Japanese 10Y yields rising to 0.1% for the first time since February, but mostly Bund yields which spiked after tripping stops, and jumped as high as 0.53% for the first time since early 2016.

Gold Surges, Global Stocks Slide As "Super Thursday" Risks Loom

With traders realizing that the "Thursday Turmoil Trifecta" looms, world stocks dropped and safe-haven assets rose as investors focused on the growing tension in the Middle East, while caution spread across markets in a week full of risk events including James Comey’s congressional testimony to the ECB’s policy meeting and Britain’s increasingly uncertain election, all in the span of 24 hours. As a result, European and Asian stocks as well as S&P futures all fell, while gold, yen and Treasuries gained.

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: FOMC, Payrolls, 131 S&P Companies Report

Besides the upcoming FOMC meeting on May 2-3, and French & Italian politics - the decisive runoff round of the French election takes place this Sunday - this week's releases are dominated by US payrolls expected to come around 170k. The busy release calendar continues with Norges bank and RBA meetings as well as global manufacturing PMIs.

"It Can Only Disappoint" - What Wall Street Expects From Today's Jobs Report

If wages disappoint for the second month in a row, then markets may begin to ease back their hiking expectations for the rest of the year. For markets to price out a rate hike in March, wage growth would probably need to slow markedly and the headline NFP number to fall well below 100K.

US Futures Pressured By European Weakness; Oil Flat, Dollar Rises

For the fourth day in a row, US traders arrive at their desks with US equity futures largely rangebound if with a modestly heavy bias, pressured by some recent weakness in European stocks, where DB continues to post modest gains following yesterday's report that Germany is pursuing "discrete talks" over the fate of the German lender. Oil has regained earlier losses following comments by Algeria's oil minister who said that OPEC could cut 1% more than agreed upon while sterling continues to slide on growing concerns of a "hard Brexit."

A Striking Chart

The stock market can defy economic weakness up to a point, particularly during times of strong money supply growth – but this isn’t going to last if the weakness continues or worsens. Ultimately it will hinge on the state of the economy’s pool of real funding, and all indications are that it is increasingly in trouble.

Goldman Cuts September Rate Hike Odds To 40%, Just Days After Raising Them To 55%

Goldman: "we are lowering our subjective odds of a rate increase at the September FOMC meeting from 55% to 40%. We are nudging up the odds of a rate increase at the December meeting to 30% from 25%, but taking the cumulative odds for at least one hike this year down to 70% from 80%. With slightly softer data and less “time on the clock”, a rate increase this year now looks a bit less certain, in our view."

Eerie Calm Continues: Futures Flat Ahead Of Apple's Latest Product Launch

The unprecedented period of low volatility, in which the S&P hasn't moved more than 1% in either direction, is now well into its 40th day and the muted overnight session has done nothing to put this streak in jeopardy with S&P futures once again hugging the flatline ahead of the widely expected 3:30pm ramp. European stocks were likewise little changed while Asia was fractionally higher depite a modest dip in the Nikkei.

With US On Holiday, Global Stocks Rise As Dollar Sinks, While Fireworks Break Out In Crude

With the US taking the day off to celebrate the unofficial end of the summer, global markets have been relatively quiet, aside from the dramatic moves in the energy sector over the past few hours, where crude soared in early trading as reported previously on a much-hyped joint statement by the energy ministers of Saudi Arabia and Russia, only to see the spike fizzle.

World Stocks Drop For Third Day On Growing Concerns About Central Bank Policy, Tumbling Oil

After 7 consecutive drops in the Dow Jones, the Industrial average is set for an 8th decline with US equity futures modestly lower in the premarket as risk-averse sentiment persists overnight. Oil’s continued slide and recent plunge into a bear market, despite some stabilization this morning just south of $40, has finally rekindled global growth concerns, and is keeping a lid on bullishness. European stocks are little changed, while Asian stocks and S&P futures fall.