With the ECB's December meeting just one week away, Mario Draghi and co. are still debating how best to package a new round of easing measures. As Reuters reports, the central bank is considering a tiered system for the application of negative rates in an effort to mitigate the effect on banks. Translation: the ECB may be preparing to "overwhelm" with an even larger cut to the already negative depo rate that analysts were expecting.
November has been a banner month for black swans. From Leftist political coups in Portugal to terror attacks in Paris to downed Russian fighter jets in Syria, the market is gradually learning to expect the unexpected. In its latest Quarterly Economic Outlook, SocGen outlines five political and economic black swans that could land in 2016.
We wonder: just how much "more exponential" will China's "strike chart" have to get before everyone else finally notices?
Perhaps realizing that another wave of social unrest and failure to obtain creditor cash may well lead to a violent social upheaval, Tsipras seems to be contemplating a Plan B, one which would see Greece accept thousands of refugees destined for Europe in exchange for getting the earmarked cash without any reform.
Bitcoin, at $444, is now up over 100% since we suggested, in early September, it would become the conduit for Chinese capital outflows following China's crackdown on capital controls. This afternoon's sudden BIS-induced plunge, taking the virtual currency down $50, has been entirely retraced and more as BTCC (China's leading Bitcoin Exchange) announced it will now accept direct deposits (making it significantly easier for Chinese to rotate their Yuan deposits into the virtual currency and out of the potential clutches of capital controlling communists).
Bitcoin, at $400, is now at its highest since November 2014, having surged over 100% since the late-August 2015 lows when we first warned of China capital outflows using the virtual currency conduit. As we suggested, and was confirmed overnight, it appears the Chinese are just getting started...
“Some Chinese traders are expressing a view on the CNY exchange rate after the last devaluation and you have interest by mainland speculators to move to other assets after the stock market fallout.”
Today we got yet another tortured admission of just how ugly Greek balance sheets are, the ECB has admitted what we knew months ago, namely that more than half of all Greek loans are now nonperforming, and that as much as 57% of the loans made by Piraeus Bank the bank which fared worst, are at risk with the other Greek banks not much better off.
China Margin Debt Hits 8-Week High, Japan Pumps'n'Dumps As Kyle Bass Fears Looming EM Banking CrisisSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/27/2015 20:21 -0500
Following Marc Faber's reality check on China recently, Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass took a swing tonight noting that "China's 7% GDP growth is a farce," and adding that, just as we detailed previously, China's credit cycle has begun and non-performing loans will rise rapidly leading to an emerging Asia banking crisis ahead. Japanese markets continue to entertain with "someone" insta-ramping NKY Futs 100 points at the open only to give it all back as USDJPY slides back towards 120.00 (and 10Y JGB yields drop below 30bps for the first time in 6 months).
In the world's most populous communist country where jobs used to be guaranteed - by definition - to anyone, in any walk of life, it has suddenly become next to impossible to progress up the career ladder, something which will result in great social angst and instability in the coming years. According to China Daily, competition for white-collar jobs became fiercer in the third quarter, with more than 35 job seekers contending for the same position on average. This is a jump from 26 and 29 in the first and second quarters this year, a Chinese human resources website said on Tuesday.
Over the past 5 years, the one forecast that was clear to anyone with even an introductory grasp of economics and finance, is that a Chinese economic collapse is inevitable and just a matter of time. Apparently, in retrospect, this was also clear to the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, who during a press conference in Lima, said the following:LAGARDE SAYS CHINA'S SLOWDOWN WAS PREDICTABLE, IS A "GOOD MOVE" There is just one problem with that: of all market participants, the IMF is perhaps the only one who did not predict China's slowdown. Quite the opposite.
Are some Chinese banks ramping up their exposure to shadow conduits on the way to obscuring massive amounts of credit risk? Moody's says yes...
Welcome To The Newer Normal: Your Complete Guide To A World In Which The Fed Is No Longer In ControlSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/23/2015 17:27 -0500
For those who have had the nagging feeling that something in the market has changed dramatically in the past few months, you are absolutely correct. Here is the full explanation.
PBOC Devalues Yuan, Injects More Liquidity As China's Banking Regulator Admits "Bad Loan Situation Is More Severe Than 2008"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/21/2015 20:20 -0500
AsiaPac stocks are opening mixed after the US session gains. Perhaps the biggest news of the evening is, as China's bankiong regulator has been meeting with foreign banks to express concerns over lack of risk control around non-performing loans. As CBRC said, rather stunningly honest for a government entity, "the current situation is more severe than the time in 2008 during the financial crisis." With stocks up while commodities (Zinc) limit-down, PBOC injects another CNY50 bn and devalued the Yuan fix for the 2nd day in a row.
- China stocks resume sharp slide as economic worries mount (Reuters)
- OECD head says sees further cut to global growth forecasts (Reuters)
- The U.S. Dollar Is Gaining Like It's the 1980s — For Better or Worse (BBG)
- Glencore Slumps to Record Low, Erasing Gains Since Debt Plan (BBG)
- Woman killed, 400 homes destroyed by California wildfire (Reuters)
- Why Morning Is the Worst Time to Trade Stocks (WSJ)
- German Investor Confidence Damped by Weaker Emerging Markets (BBG)