Norges Bank

Highlights from the just released speech by Philly Fed hawk Charles Plosser:

• Fed's Plosser says would want to make explicit the Fed's commitment to a numerical inflation objective
  
• Says important to communicate a systemic plan that describes where Fed is going, how it will get there
• Says his proposed strategy would tie pace of asset sales to size of interest rate increases
• Says his preferred exit strategy would raise rates, shrink balance sheet concurrently
• Says failure to exit in timely manner will have serious consequences on inflation, economic stability in future
• Says monetary policy will have to reverse course in the not too distant future
• Says consumer spending continues to expand at reasonably robust rate
• Says US economy seems to be on much firmer foundation
• Says labor market conditions are improving

In other words, an attempt to return confusion over the fate of QE3. As for the Fed existing anything.... good luck. As part of his exit proposals, Plosser proposes two exit plans (12 and 18 months) both of which sees a dramatic reduction in reserves, a hike in IOER, and asset sell offs. Should the Fed indeed proceed to do this, the market will prolapse.

In a move to combat rising inflation, Norway's Government Pension Fund Global, valued at $548 billion at the end of last year, is slashing its bond holdings and shifting to real estate and infrastructure...

While nobody has any idea just what lies in store in the coming week which is expected to be abnormally volatile, here is a summary of the key economic events from Goldman's FX desk. "It all came at once last week with the major drivers of market price action rolling across the newswires on Friday. Front, back and centre stage was dominated by the still unfolding tragedy in Japan. First and foremost our thoughts are with those affected by the situation. In terms of asset markets, it is tough to draw concrete conclusions until we have a greater handle on the monetary cost of the disaster which is likely to run into trillions of Yen. There are also many potentially offsetting economic forces at work after a natural disaster, which we will try to assess in coming days and weeks."
The Eurozone summit arguably produced a positive surprise in that steps have been taken to a final political deal at the European council meeting of 24/25 March...The week ahead will continue to focus on developments in Japan and the Middle East and any further political commentary associated with the European summit. The BoJ has shortened its monetary policy meeting to one day on Monday. In addition to pledges to provide ongoing liquidity and the maintenance of financial stability, the BoJ may decide to extend the QE proposals from September in order to shore up confidence

The week ahead is relatively light on the data front with the US only reporting on the trade balance (likely wider), claims and consumer confidence. However, there will be a slew of speeches and testimonies from Bernanke and regional Fed Presidents, in particular early in the week. Outside the US the key policy event this week will be the BOK meeting with consensus now expecting a hike, whereas GS still thinks on balance that rates will remain on hold. The other important development to watch is China's return from a week-long holiday on Wednesday. With inflation pressures rising and the Government increasingly vocal in promising price stability further tightening measures are possible. China money supply and credit numbers will be particularly interesting in that context. Outside the macro data, the rapid sell-off in US rates and the impact on interest rate differentials will likely remain the most watched development for FX investors in the upcoming week. Finally, developments in the Middle East continue to deserve some attention, given the fluidity of the political situation and the potential spill-over into commodity markets.

The Senate votes on the fiscal package Monday at 3:00 pm. Assuming it passes, the House of Representatives is likely to vote later in the week. Congress plans to adjourn for the year December 17. Fiscal policy remains very important for the medium term USD outlook due to the building tension between stronger demand and potentially widening twin deficits. There will also be some focus on the Philly Fed and Empire surveys next week, which sent a very divergent message on US manufacturing activity last month. Also next week, there will be $24 worth of Fed-given liquidity courtesy of 4 POMOs on every day except Tuesday.

Below is Erik Nielsen's latest dose of European permabullishness. At this point it is pretty much pointless to keep track of who is who at Goldman - the last attempt to reignite "The Ponz" is going gull blast, and every single person has forsaken their credibility in order to pitch the propaganda line. How Goldman's strategists pretend to be even remotely relevant any more is a mystery to anyone. The bottom line, and cutting through all the bullshit, is that Germany will do almost everything to keep the Euro, and thus import the periphery's monetary weakness, keeping its exports cheep, absent a fiscal union, no matter what the petrified bureaucrat Schauble says. Luckily Angela Merkel gets it... for now. Which is why all those who were expecting the WSJ interview with the German finance minister to push the EURUSD higher in Monday trading are in for a disappointment judging by the early action in the pair.

Goldman's Erik Nielsen looks at the immediate European future, is flummoxed by all the end of world calls (bank runs, Ireland rejecting budget, austerity riots everywhere), and sees a future so bright he just has to wear the kind of shades that only a multi-million dollar bonus can buy (especially after Goldman upgrades all banks and its own bonuses by about 10%). After all his colleague Hatzius, despite all the facts and data, just upgraded US GDP. It now appears that just like Moody's 5 years ago, Goldman's excel spreadsheets crash when one input a negative growth assumption. Arguably these are the same spreadsheets that Tim Geithner used to prepare his taxes.

Norway's Auditor General recently issued a report to the parliament that was highly critical of Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), the arm of the central bank which runs the $512 billion Government Pension Fund.

The market is now bracing for the November onslaught. Yet the next week will hardly be light on the data front. As Goldman describes, following the weekend’s meeting by the G20 finance ministers the markets will likely come to realize that the immediate impact on current trends in FX will be limited. It is therefore likely that attention will shift back to data once again and on the likely course of action by the Fed. On the data front, we have a heavy data week in the US with GDP, Chicago PMI, durable goods and consumer confidence. Overall and on balance we are less positive than consensus albeit by a smaller number. Potentially hawkish comments from central bank meetings in Poland and Sweden could be catalysts for FX appreciation. Finally, data out of Europe includes another German employment report and a UK GDP. We expect both to show further improvements.

A hilarious little detour that will likely get no press attention and will be promptly covered up with another taxpayer sponsored settlement. Apparently the Norway Wealth Fund has decided to sue Citi "over alleged misstatements about the company's financial condition, which it claims caused it to buy Citi shares at inflated prices." The purchases resulted in over $835 million of losses in Citi stocks, bonds and preferred. And the cherry on top is that this is coming from the same fiduciarily irresponsible people who are now buying up Greek debt on the assumption that on a Yield to Infinity it is all "money good." Has the collective IQ of investors in the world over the past 30 years just correlated inversely with the amount of cheap (and now free) liquidity out there? Just how dumb do you have to be before you realize that everything is rigged?

A recap of last week's key events, and a look at next week's all important FOMC meeting, and other major upcoming headlines from Goldman's Thomas Stolper.

Norway's fund dropped $25 billion in the second quarter, pummeled by the European debt crisis and BP's downturn after the Gulf of Mexico spill.

We have already had our say about Denmark's World Cup performance. It was not lost on Erik Nielsen. It has not had as much of a dire impact on his outlook, as his European round up is summarized: "that’s the way Europe looks from my unbelievably green garden on this gorgeous afternoon. I shall now pour myself some sort of chilled and lovely summer drink and turn to my favourite book." Something tells us this is not Hayek. More importantly Erik points out why Wednesday will be a very important "micro event" day for Europe: the ECB's 12 month LTRO, whose impact on Libor and Euribor we discussed previously, matures on the 1st, and also on Wednesday "Greece formally falls out of the indices because of their downgrade. How much selling will that cause? I have no clue, but I would fail to understand why investors would have waited till the last day to get rid of their Greek bonds when they have known about the issue since June 15." Yet Erik points out something curious: "the Greek governments intends to roll over 3, 6 and 12 month treasury bills maturing in July; a total of about €3.5bn. Auctions are expected on Tuesday 13th and on Tuesday 20th July." And he wonders:"Why are they doing it? Could it be that they are responding to demand from banks and other investors who have started to appreciate that a debt restructuring the next 12 months is very unlikely and therefore looking for high-yielding assets? If so, this would be a mis-guided move, in my opinion, and – frankly – I hope the IMF and EU would tell them to back off." Looks like yet another shoe in the European collapse may be due to drop this week.

All you need to know about how the world looks through the eyes of everyone's favorite Chiswick resident: "I am sorry to sound like a broken record here in my opening paragraph, but – alas – we are through yet another week of pretty good real-economy data in Europe, further positive signs on the policy front, and stabilising markets." (and yes, that's Erik Nielsen from GS). The decoupling from reality is now complete: what is it about "decoupled" London tap water? First O'Neill and now Nielsen...

On one hand you have the EURUSD telling you things are horrible and getting worse, on the other you have Goldman's Erik Nielsen. Here is the latest hilarious confirmation that Goldman managing directors are just plain clueless when the ponzi pulls a Madoff: "I don’t get the FX market these days. While I understand the technical and position-based arguments for the FX levels, on fundamentals, I don’t know why the Euro has remained overvalued for so long. That said, the triggers for moves are amazing: On Thursday, markets basically ignored the man with the world’s single biggest portfolio, Chinese central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan, when he expressed full trust in Europe’s ability to deal with its debt crisis, while going into a virtual panic sending EUR/USD below 1.20 for the first time since March 2006 when the wire services botched the simple job of translating French PM Fillon’s statement on the FX. But here is the most fundamental of questions: How can one be bearish on both the Euro and on Euro-zone growth? Beats me – I assume you know which camp I am in."