Norway

We present the following postcard we just got from Sweden. We can only hope this is a very isolated incident of people enjoying to wait in line for a few pieces of paper, completely devoid of any contextual reference. That, or they are all suddenly applying for a mortgage, or in the best case, merely enjoying the wonderful weather, just incidentally next to a branch of one of Sweden's largest banks.

Whether it is the EU running to the G-20, nations in Asia, the IMF or Spain and Italy and their brethren calling for Eurobonds the distinction is easily made; you pay or you pay or you pay because I cannot. That is the cry in the wilderness as politely, very politely, quite politely everyone says, “No thank you.” The curtain is going down on the show and the normal pleas are being made to keep the spectacle in operation but the pocketbooks are closed and Germany and the rest are not going to bet the family farm when the final act draws nigh. The Elves in the boulders cackle and the “invisible people” move on and sigh as the ending of one more chapter is inscribed in the Book of Life.

All you need to read.

All you need to read.

• Hilsenrath: Fed Pondering Why Inflation and Deflation Threats Ebbed (WSJ)
• The Naivete: France to push for eurozone bonds (FT)
• The rebuke: Merkel Says She Won’t Shy From Clash With Hollande at EU Summit (Bloomberg)
• The Euro-love: Hollande's euro arguments "nonsense": Austria's Fekter (Reuters)
• Obama Campaign Does Damage Control After Dems Question Anti-Bain Strategy (ABC)
• Greece: four major banks recapitalized by Friday (L'Echo)... and if they aren't?
• China to fast-track infrastructure investments (Reuters)... because China needs more cement
• Jeeps Sell for $189,750 as China Demand Offsets Tariffs (Bloomberg)
• As Facebook’s Stock Struggles, Fingers Start Pointing (NYT)
• Facebook 11% Drop Means Morgan Stanley Gets Blame (Bloomberg)

Based on a swap-spread-based model, EURUSD should trade around 1.30, but based on GDP-weighted sovereign credit risk EURUSD should trade around 1.00; so who is right and what are the factors that supporting the Euro at higher levels than many would assume (given the rising probability of a Euro-zone #fail and the 0.82 lows from 2000). UBS addresses four key reasons for the apparent paradox based on the difference between ECB and Fed 'monetization', the EZ's balanced current account (independent of foreign capital flows), and the high-oil-price induced petro-dollar circulation diversifying into Euros (or out of USD). The final and most telling of factors though is bank deleveraging as European financial entities, who remain under pressure to shrink their balance sheets and re-build capital, have been selling foreign assets. They remain EUR dismalists with a year-end target of 1.15 but expect the slide to these levels to be cushioned (absent an imminent break-up) by banks' 'shrinkage'.

Here are some of the things that David Einhorn likes and does not like, having just started his speech at the Ira Sohn Conference:

• Martin Marietta - stock plunges 10% and triggers circuit breaker.
• France - "a french default is not out of the question" - France not limit down yet. He says that a return to the Franc is not out of the question.
• Einhorn likes GJF.NO - "Norway is the only country which can finance itself."
• Einhorn likes Cairn Energy as it trades at discount to assets in just Britain and India.
• Says China is misunderstood and is not an investment opportunity: not enough money to feed the economy and banks aare becoming illquid; money is leaving the country
• Also does not like Japan for all the usual Kyle Bass and Andy Xie reasons. The Yen will continue strengthening.
• Einhorn likes AMZN, calls it "elephant in the room", but questions profit growth.
• Einhorn likes Dena Co, and Gree Inc in Japan
• Einhorn is short DKS
• Einhorn, who is long about $870MM AAPL as per last night's 13F, likes AAPL. Stunner.

A month ago we warned that JPM's CIO office is nothing short of the world's largest prop trading desk. Not only were we right, but what just transpired is just shy of our worst possible prediction. At the end of the day, the real question is why did JPM put in so much money at risk in a prop trade because we can dispense with the bullshit that his was a hedge, right? Simple: because it knew with 100% certainty that if things turn out very, very badly, that the taxpayer, via the Fed, would come to its rescue. Luckily, things turned out only 80% bad. Although it is not over yet: if credit spreads soar, assuming at $200 million DV01, and a 100 bps move, JPM could suffer a $20 billion loss when all is said and done. But hey: at least "net" is not "gross" and we know, just know, that the SEC will get involved and make sure something like this never happens again.

Confirming that the market is now completely insane is a rehash of the actual catalyst data flow: recall that yesterday the one thing that pushed stocks higher, as described in Clutching at Straws, was the surge in German factory orders. Today, we get another huge beat of expectations in German Industrial Production and everything is red. Although now that US traders, most of them originating at Liberty 33, are starting to walk in, we may get yet another of the much anticipated and largely loved turns from a blood red premarket to green everywhere.

• It just get worse and worse: After McClendon's trades, Chesapeake board gave blessing (Reuters)
• Iran Accepts Renminbi for Crude Oil (FT)... which is not news: recall China and Iran Bypass Dollar from July 2011
• As Gas Prices Fall, a Sigh of Relief  (WSJ)... so now people can direct their disability payments to where they belong: extra fries
• Greece Braces for a Repeat of Elections (FT), as first predicted by Zero Hedge, this will be a recurring affair
• China dissident Chen says officials must face justice (Reuters)
• Merkel Urges Athens to Stick With Reform (FT)
• Hollande’s Win is a Chance for Change (FT)
• U.K. Manufacturers Expect Exports to Rise (WSJ)
• U.S. Says Bomb Plot Disrupted Before Public Threatened (Bloomberg)
• Santorum Endorses Romney as Republican Nominee (Bloomberg)
• Beijing May Host OTC Market (China Daily)
• India Delays Tax Avoidance Laws (FT)

"In less than two years, we are now up to a total of seven European leaders or ruling parties that have been forced out of office, courtesy of the spreading government debt crisis — tack on France now to Ireland, Portugal, Greece, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands. Even Germany's coalition is looking shaky in the aftermath of the faltering state election results for the CDU's (Christian Democratic Union) Free Democrat coalition partner. This is quite a potent brew — financial insolvency, economic fragility and political instability."

About two years ago the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund did something truly remarkable: it invested for infinity: "Norway, which has amassed the world’s second-biggest sovereign wealth fund, says Greece won’t default on its debts. The Nordic nation’s $450 billion Government Pension Fund Global has stocked up on Greek debt, as well as bonds of Spain, Italy and Portugal. Finance Minister Sigbjoern Johnsen says he backs the strategy, which contributed to a 3.4 percent loss on European fixed income in the second quarter, compared with gains on bonds in Asia and the Americas. Norway says its long-term perspective will protect it from losses. “One could say we are investing for infinity,” Johnsen said." Well, we all know how the experiment ended: "Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund Purges All Insolvent Eurozone Debt Holdings." So much for infinity. But that has not stopped others to boldly catch falling knives where so many other have tried to catch falling knives before, and failed. Enter Greylock Capital and various other hedge funds who are positive they have rediscovered the wheel.

The Greek elections culminated with the worst possible outcome: 2 votes short of a majority for the pro-bailout New Democracy and Pasok parties. So what happens next? Well - two things: expect to see random stop hunting ramps in the EURUSD and ES on false rumors that despite the math, a pro-bailout coalition government is being formed. It isn't, but it will take out all FX and ES stops to the upside first as skittish shorts get burned as usual on planted fake headlines. More importantly, and as predicted last week, we will likely see yet another Greek election as the political vacuum in Athens is likely too big to be circumvented in a few days. Below we present a summary of immediate next steps as summarized by the WSJ. Yet one thing we want to bring attention to is that as we pointed out first on Saturday, a key even over the next two weeks, during a time when Greece will most likely not have an active government in place is the May 15th maturity of €430 million in international-law bonds whose holders have not agreed to the terms of the PSI and thus demand full payment... of money that Greece does not have. Finally we already know that Norway is the biggest non-PSI compliant entity out there. So will we finally see the first Greek PSI-related lawsuit on May 16 if and when Greece fails to make a payment? We will know in 9 days whether the European soap opera gets even more exciting than usual as various European countries start suing each other in international court, especially when one of the countries will have no government for the foreseeable future.

One month later the purge is over: "Norway’s sovereign wealth fund sold all its Irish and Portuguese government bonds after rejecting the Greek debt swap and warned that Europe faces considerable challenges." Wait, what's that? The Eurozone's political strongarming (think Steve Rattner and GM) was unable to force the world's most powerful sovereign wealth fund into agreeing to what was essentially extortion when bank after bank noted how delighted they are to be bent over and take an 80% writedown on their Greek holdings. Stunning. But at least we now know who will be suing Greece shortly in an attempt to recoup par value of their strong law bonds: grab the popcorn - Norway vs Greece will be quite a spectacle. As for their dump of Irish and Portuguese bonds, no surprise there: fool me once (in perpetuity) shame on me, fool me twice, shame on Dan Loeb... who was buying everything Norway was selling. We wonder who ends up right.

If Munch's Scream was a public company, its stock would be limit up now, because contrary to expectations of it selling at a just concluded auction in Sotheby's for $80 million, the painting just slammed all expectations (except LaVorgna's we are told), selling at a record $119,922,500 (that's $119.9 million... for a made in 1895, 36" x 28.9" painting). This makes it the highest amount of money ever spent for an artwork, with only Picasso's "Boy With a Pipe" and Giacometti's "Walking Man I" selling for more than $100 million in the past. That said, in real terms and assuming 2% annual inflation, the Picasso painting which sold for $104 million in 2004, would now be worth over $120 Million in nominal terms so once again we get into the whole nominal, real debate. It is unknown if some high freak algo went berserk and kept lifting the offer, confused that this is the travesty formerly known as the stock market (although certainly keep an eye out for strange screaming artwork in the GETCO offices) nor is the buyer, but one thing that is certain: it would take the average American 4,548.9 years, earning the 2010 Median Salary of $26,363.55 to be able to purchase the painting. And some wonder why there is a bit of a social divide in the world... As to whether a painting will be considered money by the Charmin' Chairman, well, we will have to wait and see.