Update: Risk on is fading fast with bonds & bullion topping stocks
The kneejerk - USD up, stocks down, bonds down - reaction has faded and with The Fed statement pitching its dovish tent back in domestic concerns while keeping a hawkish eye on global developments. The Long bond is back in the green but it appears machines are busier running oil stops higher and dumping gold. Rate hike odds rose but very modestly from 21% pre- to 23.5% post-FOMC.
"Something disturbing happened this morning. I bought a nymex copper contract with an attached stop limit and take profit. My stop got rejected by the exchange. I think it was in pending mode. I ignored it and when the market moved up, i moved the stop up. Then the exchange accepted it. My take profit order got hit instead. Then, I shorted an ES. Again, the market rejected my stop limit."
Following last week's 'biggest inventrory draw in 3 months', expctations were for a 1mm build this week, so when API reported a huge 6.2mm build. Perhaps slightly offsetting this surge is a 1.93mm draw at Cushing (after Genscape forecast a 1mm draw at Cushing this week and expectations were for a 800k draw). After a manic buying day in WTI, oil prices are plunging after hours...
Oil & Stocks are back at 100% correlated today - what could possibly go wrong? Aside from the NYMEX Close and API data "event" risks...
WTI's 'mysterious' spike into the NYMEX close extended after hours (almost as if someone knew something). Inventories drewdown 4.6mm barrels according to API (drastically less than the expected 2.85mm build). This is the biggest weekly draw since Jan 1. Cushing was expected to see a build of 100k (after 2 weeks of draws) but saw a considerably larger one at +620k. Distillates inventories built as Gasoline drewdown very modestly.
Why Oil Prices Are About To Plunge Again: 31 Million Barrels In Floating Storage Are Coming On ShoreSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/23/2016 21:53 -0400
Based on the all-in cost of operating tanker storage (dirty VLCC tanker day rates, financing, transit and transfer loss, insurance and bunkers, Figure 5), the current storage cost is too high relative to the steepness of the Brent forward curve. This means that prices do not justify inventory build, but rather gradual inventory drawdown as existing storage trades are unwound. Comparing the current level of floating storage (157.3 million barrels) versus that in early February (126.6 million barrels), there may be an additional 31 million barrels of inventory to be drawn down between now and the next inventory trough over the next several months.
Between storage concerns and the potentially "meaningless" Doha production freeze talks, crude oil traders appear tohave realized that $40 oil is unsustainable at record glut levels... WTI crashed through $40 at the NYMEX close...
"The oil-price rally that began in mid-February will almost certainly collapse. It is similar to the false March-June 2015 rally. In both cases, prices increased largely because of sentiment. As in the earlier rally, current storage volumes are too large and demand is too weak to sustain higher prices for long."
The oil-price rally that began in mid-February will almost certainly collapse.