NYMEX

Retail investors are piling into the stock market again in the false belief that the worst of the economic crisis is over. Alas, those who are not properly diversified may again be in for a rude awakening.

The “Fix” Is In?

The meme of the moment appears to be that sliding gas prices (which by the way merely fell back to mid-February levels) will no longer hamper the over-taxed and under-incomed consumer providing yet more upsided-ness for stocks. Sorry to burst another fictional bubble but Gas prices have now risen for the 3rd day in a row as RBOB (wholesale gas prices) surge to new 2013 highs and crude oil prices push back to one-month highs. Perhaps that is why today's retail sales data (unadjusted) is not providing the pop that so many talking-heads believe is warranted. Between RBOB highs and the RIN issues, is it any wonder the CME just hiked 'crack spread' margins in an effort to keep prices under control?

When two weeks ago we exposed the heretofore secret location of JPM's London gold vault (located under the firm's massive L-shaped office complex at 60 Victoria Embankment) we thought: what about New York? After all, while London is the legacy financial capital of the "old world", it is in New York that the biggest private wealth of the past century is concentrated, and it is also in New York where the bulk of the hard assets backing the public money of the world's sovereigns are located, some 80 feet below ground level in the fifth sub-basement of the New York Fed, resting on the bedrock of Manhattan. That the topic of the gold "held'' by the New York Fed - historically considered the gold vault with the largest concentration of gold bars in the world - has become rather sensitive, in the aftermath of the Bundesbank's request to repatriate it (surely, but very, very slowly), is an understatement. Yet in the aftermath of some of the revelations presented here, we believe quite a few other countries will follow in Germany's footsteps for one very simple reason: suddenly the question of whether their gold is located at 33 Liberty, or just adjacent to it, in what we have learned is the de facto largest private gold vault in the world, located across the street 90 feet below 1 Chase Manhattan Plaza, doesn't appear to have a clear answer.

We noted yesterday the strange intraday pattern emerging in Silver price movements - the alarmingly predictable morning takedown of the precious metals when the NYMEX opens. It's a reality that we need to be eyes wide open about, as it underscores the challenges of being long in an asset that powerful players don't want to appreciate. And while it's important to understand the risks in play here (e.g. these raids may continue for longer than we think possible), we emphasize the importance for precious metal owners to hold fast with the courage of their convictions - ultimately fundamentals will prevail and gold and silver prices will rise to their true levels. So, if you decide to bet on the continued success of the status quo, your choices are easy: Get in the paper markets and go long. The Fed will be adding $85 billion of liquidity rocket fuel each month for the rest of the year to push the prices of your paper investments even higher. But if you choose the fundamentals, here are a few important guidelines to keep in mind.

Market Reform is required for futures market like agriculture and energy to avoid the Hedge Fund and Big Bank Malfeasance. 

• Introduction – Gold’s Gains In All Fiat Currencies in 2012

• Much of Gold’s Gains in 2012 On 11% Price Gain in January 2012

• Japanese Yen Shows How Gold Protects From FX Devaluations

• Food Inflation Risk As Wheat and Soybeans Surge in Price

• Currency Wars and Competitive Currency Devaluations

• Gold Remains Historically and Academically Proven Safe Haven

• Conclusion – Gold in 2013

Overnight the Shanghai Composite index rose 4.3%, marking its biggest advance since October 2009, supported by the latest HSBC flash manufacturing PMI which came in at 50.9 vs Exp. 50.8 (Prev. 50.5) – 14-month high, and with hopes for supportive policy direction to come out of this weekends central economic work conference where Chinese leaders will look to set next years GDP target and layout more information on policy for urbanisation. As such WTI crude has been trending higher since the Asia session testing around the USD 87.00 to the upside with close to a 1 USD gains ahead of the NYMEX pit open. In terms of Europe, bund volumes have been light as markets head closer toward the Christmas break with European manufacturing and service PMI’s having little sustained impact with Italian and Spanish 10yr government bond yield spreads over German bunds seen 2.5bps and 3.5bps tighter respectively. Elsewhere, in the FX market there has been talk of US names selling 1 week 25 delta risk reversals in positioning ahead of this weekend’s Japanese elections.

No politics, no "death crosses" - just simple fundamentals.

In our first installment of this series we explored the concept of stock to flow in the gold markets being the key driver of supply/demand dynamics, and ultimately its price. Today we are going to explore the paper markets and, importantly, to what degree they distort upwardly the “flow” of the physical gold market. We believe the very existence of paper gold creates the illusion of physical gold flow that does not and physically cannot exist. After all, if flow determines price – and if paper flow simulates physical metal movement to a degree much larger than is possible – doesn’t it then suggest that paper flow creates an artificially low price?
Leveraged systems are based on confidence – confidence in efficient exchanges, confidence in reputable counterparties, and confidence in the rule of law. As we have learned (or should have learned) with the failures of Long Term Capital Management, Lehman Brothers, AIG, Fannie & Freddie, and MF Global – the unwind from a highly leveraged system can be sudden and chaotic. These systems function…until they don’t. CDOs were AAA... until they weren’t. Paper Gold is just like allocated, unambiguously owned physical bullion... until it’s not.

As ever, it is very difficult to pinpoint exactly why gold and all precious metals fell in price. Interestingly, oil fell by even more - NYMEX crude was down by 1% and was down by more than 1.7% at one stage. The CME Group, which operates the U.S. COMEX gold futures market, said Wednesday's plunge in gold was not the consequence of a "fat finger" or a human error. The trading wasn’t even fast enough to trigger a pause on Globex, said CME.  One thing that we can say for certain was that there was massive, concentrated selling as the New York stock markets opened with some 35,000 lots sold which is equivalent to 3.5 million ounces and saw the price fall from $1,735/oz to $1,711/oz between 0825 and 0830 EST. One sell order alone was believed to be 24 tonnes or 770,000 troy ounces.  Incredibly there was 35% daily volume in just 60 seconds. The selling, like all peculiar, counter intuitive, sharp sell offs in recent months, was COMEX driven with COMEX contracts slammed leading to further stop loss selling. The selling may have been by speculative players on the COMEX. It may have been algo or computer trading driven or tech selling – although this is less likely. Informed commentators questioned the nature of the selling as a large institutional COMEX trading entity would normally gradually sell a position of this size in order to maximise profit.

Another day another sell-off…with equity markets in Europe trending steadily lower after it was reported that the decision on Greek aid will not be taken during the Eurogroup meeting scheduled for November 12. Still, EU official said that there will be no Greek default on November 16th (EUR 4.1bln redemptions) and that this redemption is to be "factored in" decision on disbursement. Separately,  analysts at Fitch rating agency noted that while current Spain’s rating is appropriate, further action would more likely than not be to sub-investment grade. Moody’s also commented on the never-ending sovereign debt crisis today, stating that actions taken by the ECB only buying time for Euro region and that a decision on France will be communicated within a few weeks. As a result, bond and credit spreads widen further today, with SP/GE 10s spread at 450 level, which is of particular importance given that this is the level at which the LCH begins to review bonds for margin requirements. Deterioration in Italian paper was linked to next week’s supply. In turn, EUR/USD and GBP/USD trended lower, with the USD index up 0.12% at last check. Going forward, market participants will get to digest the release of the latest U. Michigan Survey (Nov P), as well as macro forecasts from Philadelphia Fed.

Another day another sell-off…with equity markets in Europe trending steadily lower after it was reported that the decision on Greek aid will not be taken during the Eurogroup meeting scheduled for November 12. Still, EU official said that there will be no Greek default on November 16th (EUR 4.1bln redemptions) and that this redemption is to be "factored in" decision on disbursement. Separately, analysts at Fitch rating agency noted that while current Spain’s rating is appropriate, further action would more likely than not be to sub-investment grade. Moody’s also commented on the never-ending sovereign debt crisis today, stating that actions taken by the ECB only buying time for Euro region and that a decision on France will be communicated within a few weeks. As a result, bond and credit spreads widen further today, with SP/GE 10s spread at 450 level, which is of particular importance given that this is the level at which the LCH begins to review bonds for margin requirements. Deterioration in Italian paper was linked to next week’s supply. In turn, EUR/USD and GBP/USD trended lower, with the USD index up 0.12% at last check. Going forward, market participants will get to digest the release of the latest U. Michigan Survey (Nov P), as well as macro forecasts from Philadelphia Fed.

European equities have made tentative progress this morning, led by the technology and basic materials sectors. The European morning was relatively peaceful until a flurry of activity on the back of European sources commenting that Spain are unlikely to seek ESM aid until the end of the year, and the ECB are not in a rush to commence bond-buying using their OMT facility. The delay of expectations of purchases has taken its toll on the Spanish debt markets which, despite completing their 2012 issuance smoothly today, show signs of strain as the 10yr yield breaches 5.81%, and the yield spread approaches 450bps against the German benchmark – the level at which LCH begin to review margin requirements. The pain in Spain has also impacted the EUR currency, with the major EUR/USD pair printing a two-month low of 1.2720 this morning.

Equity markets kick started the week on a negative footing, with the troubled Iberian giant back in focus after it was reported that the ECB is checking whether it may have contravened its own strict rules by lending to Spanish banks on overly generous terms, an ECB spokesman said on Sunday. According to press reports, Spanish banks had borrowed funds from the ECB at a preferential interest rate of 0.5% even though the creditworthiness of the T-bills they provide as collateral should have required them to pay 5.5%. The never-ending Greek drama is another factor for the risk-averse sentiment, with only weeks before the country runs out of cash and still no evidence that lawmakers will find a solution to diffuse the situation, there is a risk of another speculative attack on weaker EU states. As a result, credit and bond yield spreads widened, led by Italian and Spanish bonds, both wider by around 9bps in 10s. Despite the evident distress in credit markets, EUR/GBP is essentially flat, with GBP underperforming following the lacklustre PMI report from the UK.