Lipow Oil Associates sees the start of a "death spiral" as "product inventories are high, margins come under pressure, refiners reduce crude runs and therefore the crude-oil glut grows to the point where someone wants to discount" to unload it--inspiring refiners "to kick up their runs again." .
A modest selloff in the dollar (EURUSD >1.11) is about the biggest reaction so far to the Fed's Minutes. Bonds are rallying very modestly and gold lower but for now it appears the headline-reading algos are as confused as The Fed...
In today's US holiday-impacted session, the biggest overnight story was the dramatic surge in precious metals, which saw silver briefly soar above $21 following a Chinese short squeeze sending the metal as much as 7% higher overnight, its biggest one day gain since December 1, 2014. As we reported overnight, silver touched a two-year high and gold rallied for a fourth day after the Brexit vote spurred demand for havens. The catalyst is familiar: speculation central banks in some of the world’s leading economies will step up monetary stimulus in the wake of Britain’s decision to leave the European Union.
What follows is how JPM manipulated the silver markets by selling the Silver contango during illiquid hours, then used their deep pockets to push settlements, then waited until margin calls made the large locals puke their positions. JPM in effect stretched the relationship between forward rates and futures spreads until they made no sense anymore. Not unlike a company trading at 50x earnings. It cannot last long. But it only has to last long enough until the guy with the position opposite you has to liquidate.
Last week's huge API-reported inventory draw followed by disappointing DOE-reported draw sent crude prices flip-flopping around $50 before they plunged into Brexit. Having ramped all day and beyond the NYMEX close, WTI tagged $48 and was fading into the API data. Against expectations of a 2.5mm draw, API reported a 3.86mm draw (remember they said 5.22mm draw last week before DOE said 917k). The entire complex saw inventories drawdown with Cushing more than expected, bouncing WTI back above $48.