NYMEX

Who Is Right Between Oil And Other Commodities: One Hedge Fund's Opinion

So far in May, base metals and Oil decoupled markedly. While the Oil price kept rising and moved closer to 50$, base metals fell off a cliff and descended below March lows.  We believe that Oil is the errant outlier, helped by deep but temporary supply outages in Canada and Nigeria and all-time record speculative flows, and is more likely to catch down to other commodities going forward rather than the other way round. We look at Oil gyrations as short-term heavy volatility, within a long-term downward trend.

De-Dollarization Accelerates As Russia Nears Launch Of Ruble-Priced Oil Trading Platform

It appears Russia is close to taking the next big step towards de-dollarization and killing the petro-dollar as Vladimir Putin's "dream" of ruble-based pricing of its domestically-produced oil is on the verge of realization. SPIMEX (The St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange) is actively courting international oil traders to join its emerging futures market, which as Bloomberg reports, is designed "to create a system where Russian oil is priced and traded in a fair and straightforward way."

WTI Crude Jumps Above $44 After Smaller Than Expected Cushing Build

Notable weakness in oil prices amid growth/demand concerns today, following Genscape's (+821k) Cushing's big build report yesterday, and expectations for continued builds in overall crude and Cushing levels set up trades ahead of API's report with oil below $44 heading in. An overall crude inventory rise of 1.3mm barrels (almost double the 750k expectation) was not enough to trump a smaller than expected Cushing build of just 382k barrels (1.3m exp) which seemed to please the machines which ripped WTI back above $44 instantly.

Gold Money's picture

Crude oil time-spreads have completely dislocated from inventories. Historically, such dislocations have proved to be short lived. We expect that either spot prices will sell-off again or the back end of the curve will move sharply higher.We estimate that in order for time-spreads to move back in line with inventories, either front end prices have to sell off by USD10-15/bbl or the back end has to appreciate USD15-20/bbl. Given the parameters of our gold pricing model, the latter would imply roughly a USD100-150/oz rise in the gold price. 

Market Reacts To Fed Confusion With Chaotic Stop Hunt: Bonds Beating Stocks, Banks Pump'n'Dump

Update: Risk on is fading fast with bonds & bullion topping stocks

The kneejerk - USD up, stocks down, bonds down - reaction has faded and with The Fed statement pitching its dovish tent back in domestic concerns while keeping a hawkish eye on global developments. The Long bond is back in the green but it appears machines are busier running oil stops higher and dumping gold. Rate hike odds rose but very modestly from 21% pre- to 23.5% post-FOMC.

"Something Disturbing Happened" - A Futures Trader Has Some Words Of Warning

"Something disturbing happened this morning. I bought a nymex copper contract with an attached stop limit and take profit. My stop got rejected by the exchange. I think it was in pending mode. I ignored it and when the market moved up, i moved the stop up. Then the exchange accepted it. My take profit order got hit instead. Then, I shorted an ES. Again, the market rejected my stop limit."