Oaktree

Weekend Reading: On A Cliff's Edge

"...Unfortunately, in the financial markets, irrationality historically prevails and very few investors survive the fall..."

Gartman Stakes His Reputation That "The Bull Market Has Come To An End"

"We are indeed fearful… very… that this wondrous bull market that began in the spring of ‘09 has come to an end and we do not make this statement lightly for we know the damage that can be done to an already damaged reputation if this statement proves to be wrong."

Bears Throw In The Towel: FANG Shorts Hit All Time Low

The FANG bears have capitulated: short interest for the four companies has sunk to a new record low, and collectively the short bets against FANG stocks accounted for just 2% of their traded shares, an all time low.

Howard Marks Sounds The Alarm On ETFs And Passive Investing, Again

"If funds ever flow out of equities and thus ETFs, what has been disproportionately bought will have to be disproportionately sold.  It’s not clear where index funds and ETFs will find buyers for their over-weighted, highly appreciated holdings if they have to sell in a crunch."

Frontrunning: July 20

  • Futures flat as investors await earnings deluge (Reuters)
  • Investors Brace for Clues on ECB’s Tapering Plans (WSJ)
  • When Will the ECB Pull Its Trillions From the Markets? (BBG)
  • Citing Recusal, Trump Says He Wouldn’t Have Hired Sessions (NYT)
  • Trump Urges GOP to Seek Agreement on Health Measure (WSJ)

Howard Marks Redux: "There They Go Again" - Why Stock Investors Develop Amnesia

"Contributing to... euphoria... is the extreme brevity of the financial memory... There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present."