Obamacare

• US Blasts Germany's Economic Policies (WSJ)
• Citigroup, JPMorgan Said to Put Currency Dealers on Leave (BBG)
• Watchdog: Syria Destroys Chemical-Arms Equipment (WSJ)
• Kynikos Alumni Start Hedge Fund Betting on Declining Stocks (BBG)
• China state media calls for stern action after Tiananmen attack (RTRS)
• IMF warns of financial shock risk to Africa (FT)
• Insurers Oppose Obamacare Extension as Danger to Profits (BBG)
• BoJ content to ignore Fed tapering and go its own way (FT)
• U.S. attorney wants DOJ to take civil action against BofA (RTRS)
• NSA Fallout Hits AT&T's Ambitions In Europe (WSJ)

It seems like it was an eternity ago that Obama was doing his post-government shutdown gloating media tour, when day after day the world was bombarded with news of the GOP's record low popularity rating, paradoxically following their attempt to do what even the president is now desperate to achieve: delay Obamacare. Well, the tables have turned and now that the government shutdown is history, at least until January, and the public focus has shifted to where it should have been in the first place - namely the embarrassing ponzi scheme experiment that is Obamacare, and the epic failure surrounding its rushed rollout - it is Obama's turn to suffer a record low rating, which is precisely what happened according to a just concluded WSJ/NBC News poll.

Just when you think the Obama Administration can’t stoop any lower they immediately come in and surprise you.

The debut of Healthcare.gov has been probably the worst launch of a major website in history, millions of Americans are having their current health insurance policies canceled, millions of others are seeing the size of their health insurance premiums absolutely explode, and this new law is going to result in massive numbers of jobs being lost.  It is almost as if Obamacare was specifically designed to wreck the U.S. economy. Americans are going to pay far more for health care, the quality of that care is going to go down, they are going to have to deal with far more medical red tape, and thousands upon thousands of U.S. employers are considering getting rid of the health plans that they offer to employees altogether due to Obamacare.  If the U.S. health care system was a separate nation, it would be the 6th largest economy on the entire planet, and now Obamacare is going to absolutely cripple it.  To say that Obamacare is an "economic catastrophe" would be a massive understatement. Of course we were assured that it wouldn't turn out this way.

While the White House spied on Frau Merkel and Obamacare developed into a slow-moving train wreck, while Syria was saved from all-out war by the Russian bell and the Republicrats fought bitterly about the debt ceiling… something monumental happened that went unnoticed by most of the globe. The US quietly surpassed Saudi Arabia as the biggest oil producer in the world. You read that correctly: "The jump in output from shale plays has led to the second biggest oil boom in history," stated Reuters on October 15. "U.S. output, which includes natural gas liquids and biofuels, has swelled 3.2 million barrels per day (bpd) since 2009, the fastest expansion in production over a four-year period since a surge in Saudi Arabia's output from 1970-1974." After the initial moment of awe, pragmatic readers will surely wonder: Then why isn't gasoline dirt-cheap in the US?

"The recent trading environment has felt something like walking into a place and having a sense that something is wrong and dangerous but not knowing exactly what will happen or when. “QE Infinity” has so distorted the prices of stocks and bonds that nobody can possibly determine what the investing landscape would look like, or what the condition of the economy and financial system would be, in the absence of Fed bond-buying."

-Paul Singer, Elliott Management

The big question is whether it will function as intended and survive permanently. There is a serious risk that it will not. The potentially fatal flaw in Obamacare is the very same feature that appeals most to its supporters: the ability of even those with a serious preexisting health condition to buy insurance at the standard premium. The biggest danger to Obamacare’s survival is that many individuals who do not receive insurance from their employer will choose not to insure themselves and will instead pay the fine of just 1% of income (rising permanently after 2015 to 2.5%). The preferred alternative for these individuals is to wait to buy insurance until they are ill and are facing large medical bills. The “wait-to-insure” option could cause the number of insured individuals to decline rapidly as premiums rise for those who remain insured. In this scenario, the unraveling of Obamacare could lead to renewed political pressure from the left for a European-style single-payer health-care system.

Following Tavenner and Sebelius self-sacrifice in the last two days - despite the grossly partisan questioning (and congratulating) - it seems its time for the Presidential pitchman to take the stand once again. We are sure we'll be told that you can keep your plans (kinda sorta), that it's not about the website, and just how great it is for a few hand-picked kids with diabetes, moms with cancer, and veterans that the rest of Americans should be happy to pay up for. We will also be keeping an eagle eye open for any feinting...

There are times when things are jinxed from the very moment they have been drafted into blueprints and right up until the moment they are conceived. There are just times when it would be probably better to cut your losses while the chips are down before it all goes downhill and drags you with it.

Free health insurance quotes...

In what can only be characterized as a stunning moment of transparency for the Obama administration, now 5 years into its reign of "unprecedented transparency" not to mention hope and change, US Health Secretary actually did the unthinkable: she took responsibility.  "Hold me accountable for the debacle," Sebelius said in response to accusations at a congressional hearing today that her deputies failed to do their jobs. "I’m responsible."

In yesterday's stage-setting drama, "coming in mid-November" replaced of the often heard "plead the fifth" as response of choice for Marilyn Tavenner (CMS Administrator). Today brings the main event, amid another server crash, as Kathleen Sebelius (HHS Secretary) takes the stand to explain healthcare.gov's shortcomings and how great it will all be at some point in the future if we just have some patience, spend a few more billions of taxpayer money on lines of code, and ignore the fact that the website is just the start of the problems with Obamacare... Her initial remarks (released early - below) are almost exactly the same as her testimony to Congress (and a carbon copy of Tavenner's remarks): “I want to assure you that HealthCare.gov can be fixed, and we are working around the clock to give you the experience that you deserve.”

As we mentioned earlier, if there was one thing that would guarantee an 1800 print in the Stalingrad and Propaganda 500 index today, it was a 0 or negative ADP print. Well, it wasn't that bad. But it was close: with a paltry 130K private jobs created in October, this was a monthly plunge in private (i.e. non-government) payrolls, well below expectations, and substantially lower than the September 166K print which also was revised lower to 145K. It was also the 4th consecutive monthly decline starting with a 190K print in June, and it's all downhill from there. Finally, this was the 7th ADP miss in the past 8 months. We can't wait as the spinmasters do all they can to explain how private payrolls were affected by a government shutdown.

• Morning Humor from Hilsenrath - Fed Balance Sheet Not Seen Returning to Normal Until at Least 2019 (WSJ)
• Health Policies Canceled in Latest Hurdle for Obamacare (BBG)
• Was there anything RBS was not manipulating? RBS Said to Review Currency-Trading Practices Amid Probe (BBG)
• Sebelius to Testify Before House Panel (WSJ)
• And more humor: Spain's Statistics Institute Confirms End of Recession (WSJ) ... and now we await the triple dip
• Finally some credible reporting on Yellen's "foresight" - Yellen feared housing bust but did not raise public alarm (Reuters)
• Japan government moves closer to Fukushima takeover (FT)
• China to step up own security after new NSA allegations (Reuters)
• Blackstone Vies With Goldman in Spain Rental Housing Bet (BBG)
• In new U.S. budget talks, Republican proposal has flipped the script (Reuters)

The first and last time a critical data center for Obamacare crashed this past Sunday night, leading to healthcare.gov becoming completely inaccessible and thus halting enrollment (assuming there had been any in the first place but of course allowing the government to blame any lack thereof on Verizon), we said "whether or not Verizon fixes the glitch any time soon, or merely lets it linger, one thing is becoming obvious: the Obamacare delay, which was hard fought by the Teaparty, and which was so opposed by the administration leading to the grotesque 16 day government shutdown, has all but become a reality with every passing day. Only instead of someone actually taking responsibility, said delay will be scapegoated on Verizon's data centers, faulty fiber-optic and copper cables, Cisco switches, Syrian hackers, millions of lines of faulty (Fortran?) code, inept contractors, end users who never read the Help.doc file, and everyone and everything else. Just never the government itself." Once again, we were proven correct when overnight the Connecticut state healthcare exchange, "Access Health CT", announced that the Obamacare data hub was "experiencing an outage" on Tuesday evening. The culprit - Verizon once again. Which answered our question: not Syrian hackers or Cisco but, conveniently, Verizon Terremark.