If anyone is still confused by the trigger that caused the biggest selloff in biotech stocks in 2015, here are the Taiwanese animators with "all you need to know."
Two weeks ago, when no one was talking about the possibility of a government shutdown, we warned it was coming. Today, as Politico reports, with very little time left to reach a deal, budget experts project a 75% chance of a shutdown. No matter how immaterial in terms of their economic impacts, government shutdowns create uncertainty and thus influence Fed decisions and as SocGen notes, with the odds of an October liftoff low, a government shutdown could lower them further. Although funding issues should be resolved by the December FOMC meeting, there is a small chance that the fiscal standoff extends into the end of the year (i.e. due to a temporary continuing resolution), creating another deterrent for the Fed.
The world is becoming increasingly chaotic and the American people are seeking a leader who can bring order, make tough decisions, and capture the zeitgeist of this moment in history. They are in search of a prophet generation (Boomer) Grey Champion, whose arrival marks the moment of darkness, adversity and peril as the Fourth Turning careens towards its climax. The Grey Champion doesn’t necessarily have to be a good person, but they must lead and display tremendous confidence in their cause and path. Franklin, Lincoln, and FDR have many detractors, but during their Fourth Turnings, they most certainly led, casting aside obstacles (sometimes illegally) and enduring dark days and bleak prospects for success. Is there someone of that stature ready to lead the American people now?
With tens of thousands of "lucky" Syrian immigrants due to arrive on American shores, it appears these hope-full refugeese may face life in the US is not as 'free' as they hoped. As AP reports, new government procedures have caused more than 400,000 current immigrants to lose healthcare coverage they received under Obamacare this year. The change in procedure shortens the timeframe during which foreign-born citizens can resolve eligibility issues, which has caused 423,000 people to lose their state-sponsored benefits - more than four times more than last year.
With Treasury Secretary Jack Lew sending a letter to Congress this evening demanding they raise the debt limit as soon as possible, warning that cash balances have dropped below the "minimum target," it is perhaps less than surprising that Goldman Sachs is warning that a government shutdown at the end of the month has become much more likely over the last several weeks. While out-months in VIX (beyond the prospective shutdown) remain elevated, Goldman finds a silver-lining claiming that the effect of a potential shutdown on financial markets and the real economy would probably be modest if it did occur. We shall see...
Many Republicans simply delude themselves that Trump is not a serious candidate who cannot, for some reason, get the nomination. We say, don’t underestimate his ego, which we know is and always has been enormous.
Economies around the world are in shambles. All central banks and banking systems are overextended. So too are political entities. The geo-political situation is worse than any time since World War II. The nature of politics is to kick the can down the road. We are nearly out of road. The scam is likely at its end regardless of what is tried. The piper is coming for what he is owed.
Scholars, commentators, and other public figures who defend liberty in some areas and authoritarianism in other areas - or combine a defense of economic or civil liberty with a defense of the warfare state - undermine the case for the liberties they claim to cherish. Restoring the link between economic liberty, civil liberty, and peace is a vital task for those seeking to restore a society of liberty, peace, and prosperity.
What happens when we roll back into the next official recession, unemployment soars, and consumers really stop spending? What is revealed when you look under the hood of this economic recovery is that it is a complete and utter fraud. The recovery is nothing but smoke and mirrors, buoyed by subprime auto debt, really subprime student loan debt, corporate stock buybacks, and Fed financed bubbles in stocks, real estate, and bonds. The four retailers listed below are nothing but zombies, kept alive by the Fed’s ZIRP and QE, as they stumble towards their ultimate deaths. The coming recession will be the knife through their skulls, putting them out of their misery.
The hard data runs completely counter to the uptick in GDP growth shown by Fed's models.
In a culture where vigilance is encouraged rather than labeled paranoia, in a culture where productivity is enabled rather than obstructed, in a culture where free thought is treated with interest rather than disdain, government holds no value. The only people who understand the true nature of government and still value the existence of an overreaching state are the people who would like to take advantage of the unchecked power such a state affords. We often call these people “elitists.” They often call themselves elitists. Big government serves only the interests of these elites. Everyone else is either a hapless victim of it, a useful idiot in service of it, or a revolutionary opposed to it.
It’s very important to call out people like Trump for the man he is, so we don’t simply fawn and fall for a narcissist, strongman-type as a way to deal with our societal pain and frustration... "I was there at the first Tea Party in 2007 and I’ll be damned if I’m going to stand passively by and watch the movement destroyed by a fake conservative."
We've been brainwashed into financializing the human experience. This is not a problem that can be fixed by tweaking state-cartel policies (Obamacare, banking, etc.) i.e. fake fixes. This is a problem that requires a complete rethinking of centralization, money creation, empire, wealth, prosperity, consumption and how we live.
"This is the big concern because we keep on thinking that lower energy prices are somehow good for the economy. That can't be, because energy prices or commodity prices in general don't drive economic growth. Economic growth drives commodity prices. So there are a lot of telltales out there that this drop in oil prices, this drop industrial metal prices, this is not good. It's a canary in the coal mine that something is not right in the global economy. And that is a concern for us all."
We're regularly told by the Fed and defenders of the current incumbent president that the economy is humming along pretty well. People who write columns for the New York Times and who compile government reports are doing pretty well. Unfortunately for those who don't write columns or enjoy comfortable government jobs, things seem less rosy. In fact, in an economy with a rising cost of living (especially in housing), stagnant real wages, and falling worker productivity, many in the so-called working class are very, very worried about the future. And this is a reason that Donald Trump is doing so well in the polls...