Obamacare

The irony of Jesse Ventura calling for a new "American Revolution" in a conversation with Brit Piers Morgan is not lost on us but the former Governor of Minnesota asks some awkwardly open questions in this 'colorful' interview. Ventura asked if the government's shut down, "That should mean we shouldn't have to pay any taxes, right?" He called for another American revolution to push back against the "corrupt system" created by Democrats and Republicans in Washington. He told Morgan the two-party system has legalized "bribery" for access, suggesting he's fed up enough to actually run for president in 2016. Ventura called both parties "gangs," and Morgan admitted he had to agree, adding that they're "overpaid, underworked children!" The discussion then veers from Obamacare, Ventura's run for President, and the JFK conspiracy.

It may "not be some damn game", but this sure is some damn summary of all the latest news and developments.  Via Bloomberg:

• House Democrats will attempt to use discharge petition to force House to vote on clean stopgap spending bill; 17 House Republicans would need to back the measure and 20 House Republicans have said they’d vote for a clean bill
• House in session tomorrow 10am
• White House supports House bill to retroactively pay govt staff, says Obama would veto House piecemeal spending bills
• House Speaker John Boehner says he won’t offer a clean debt limit bill, says shutdown "isn’t some damn game"
• Tea Party-backed Rep. Dennis Ross, R-Fla., says he’s in favor of spending deal that doesn’t include changes to Obamacare

The most likely outcome of the current fiscal dispute, in Goldman's opinion, is an agreement that combines an increase in the debt limit and a "continuing resolution" that reopens the federal government. Unlike the November T-Bill market traders, Goldman expects this to pass; but no earlier than the end of next week (i.e., October 11-12) and more likely sometime around the Treasury's projected deadline of October 17. Other outcomes are possible, but Goldman believes they have lower probabilities.

“Spies … Can Now, For The First Time, Monitor Everything About Us, And They Can Do So With A Few Clicks Of A Mouse And – To Placate The Lawyers – A Drop-Down Menu Of Justifications”

Yesterday we noted the little-white-lie that California had told by exaggerating the traffic to the Obamacare exchange by a factor 8. Well, it turns out that there is another somewhat exaggerated "fact" that appears to have permeated the mainstream media - that significant numbers of Americans have signed up for healthcare already. The absolutely dismal fact is, as The Daily Mail reports, from states such as California, Connecticut, and Vermont, less than 1% of exchange visitors are signing up for Obamacare.

There really is very little reason why this "government shutdown" cannot continue indefinitely because almost everything is still running.  63 percent of all federal workers are still working, and 85 percent of all government activities are still being funded during this "shutdown". It turns out that the definition of "essential personnel" has expanded so much over the years that almost everyone is considered "essential" at this point.  In fact, this shutdown is such a non-event that even referring to it as a "partial government shutdown" would really be overstating what is actually happening. In the end, this shutdown could turn out to be very good for America.  We have a government that is wildly out of control and that desperately needs to be reigned in.

Presented with a stunned level of WTFness... the Obamacare Help-Line - available 24/7 is 1-800-318-2596 as we have been told a number of times by the President... it seems someone did not do their due diligence on what that telephone number's mnemomic is...

1-800-F U-CKYO

Indeed, Mr. President, 1-800-318-2596 to you too.

Remember all those headlines about the "milions" of people swamping the new Obamacare exchange sites and how that explained why the "glitches" appeared and how this proves the American people are so desparate for the insurance... well, the truth appears to be leaking out. As Politico reports, California’s health insurance exchange reported - wrongly - that it had received 5 million hits on its website the first day of Obamacare. State officials said the real number was only about a tenth of that, or 645,000. Is it any wonder that fewer Americans trust other Americans than ever before?

A growing number of House Republicans are voicing support for a clean CR and as Bloomberg reports with House Democrats, the 17 Republicans would have enough to votes to pass such a bill. As Politico notes, the fear appears to be that Congressional Republicans are in danger of morphing into the anti-Obamacare party rather than one devoted to fiscal conservatism and cutting out-of-control federal spending. The 'angle' appears to be, confirmed by Rep. Peter King (NY), Mario Diaz-Balart (FL), and Richard Hanna (NY), that “the CR is about spending. It’s the spending, stupid. We actually won 100 percent there," rather than obscure victory with an Obamacare focus. So far Boehner has shown no willingness to bring such a 'clean' bill to the floor.

Despite the president's tongue-in-cheek warning to Wall Street that this time it's different, and it that "it should be concerned", that same Wall Street continues to roundly mock his attempts to talk it lower on the third day of America's "shutdown", knowing very well that if things ever turn bad, Mr. Chairman, aka the S&P chief risk officer, will get to work, and rescue everyone from that pesky thing known as losses. Whether the offsetting optimism was driven by made up China non-manufacturing PMI rising from 53.9 to 55.4, the highest in six months, or just as made up non-core European PMI data which also beat expectations despite Germany Services PMI continuing to telegraph a weakness, dropping from 54.4 to 53.7, is unknown and once again not important. So while futures are modestly lower if only until such time as the daily 3:58pm VIX slam takes place just before market close, do not expect any major moves in stocks until either the GOP finally folds and lets Obama have his way, or bundles all shutdown legislation into the debt ceiling negotiation, and careens the US right into the debt ceiling deadline on October 17 without any legislation in place.

Any hopes that tonight's meeting between the president and members of Congress, which lasted about an hour, would yield results just went up in smoke:

BOEHNER SAID OBAMA REITERATED HE WILL NOT NEGOTIATE
BOEHNER SAYS TIME FOR SENATE TO APPOINT NEGOTIATORS

Reid chimes in:

• REID SAYS BOEHNER HAS TO ACCEPT `YES FOR AN ANSWER'

Which means the government shutdown will proceed into its third day, with little hope for a political resolution on the horizon.

What would you say to working in either Switzerland or Yemen? The choice wouldn’t take too long to ponder over I guess when it comes to providing a healthy environment in which factors that would lead to long-term economic success that might be taken into consideration.

In an interview with CNBC's John Harwood, Obama once again shows why the polarization in Congress is at record levels. In a brief: he said he is "exasperated", and that the shutdown is "entirely unncessary" but adds that he is (finally?) prepared to negotiate, however only after he gets his way namely after the government is reopened. And another important talking point: Obama added that while gridlock in D.C. is nothing new, "this time I think Wall Street should be concerned." It is unclear how that statement makes any sense in light of Obama's right hand senator Chuck Schumer telling the man who is really in charge, Ben Bernanke, to get to work. Unless of course, Obama is now angling for a "concerning" market crash, which sends the Dow down by 20% like in the summer of 2011, and Obama can tell the stunned public "I told you so."

Would Obama push his pals off a cliff to get a deal?

If yesterday was the paradoxical government shutdown "relief rally" pushed higher by a last minute VIX smashing ramp, today reality is starting to set in and global stocks and US futures are set to open lower. The FTSE MIB remains the only European bourse to trade in positive territory in today’s session, having touched upon 2 year highs as it is expected the political tumult that threatened to cause a collapse of the Italian government will be resolved today even as the latest news indicate Berlusconi's PDL will support the Bunga godfather after all. Other European equities have failed to benefit from this as market participants remain cautious ahead of the ECB rate decision today when Draghi may or may not (most likely) announce a new LTRO.