Obamacare

Health insurance companies around the country are seeking rate increases of 20 percent to 40 percent or more, saying their new customers under the Affordable Care Act turned out to be sicker than expected.

15 minutes ago we had a miss from the Markit Service PMI, and now it is the turn of the ISM's non-manufacturing survey to also miss, rising from 55.7 to 56.0, below the 56.4 consensus increase. The reason: trade (both - imports and exports - disappointed with Imports dropping into outright contraction down from 53.5 to 48.0, while employment dipped from 55.3 to 52.7. Finally, here are the respondents who after blaming winter, port strikes, drought and flooding have found a new scapegoat or rather scapebird: avian flu.

America is better off when President Obama is out on the stump bloviating and boasting rather than in Washington actively doing harm. But the whoppers he just told the students at the University of Wisconsin are beyond the pale. Said our spinmeister-in-chief: "And the unemployment rate is now down to 5.3 percent. (Applause.) Keep in mind, when I came into office it was hovering around 10 percent. All told, we’ve now seen 64 straight months of private sector job growth, which is a new record — (applause) — new record — 12.8 million new jobs all told." That’s a pack of context-free factoids.

To summarize: the first revenue drop for the S&P in 5 years, a major downward revision in EPS now expecting just 1% increase in 2015 EPS, a 25% cut to GDP forecasts, a machete taken to corporate profits and 10 Yields, and not to mention double digit sales declines for some of the most prominent tech companies in the world. And that, in a nutshell, is the "strong fundamentals" that everyone's been talking about.

Eurocrats have spent untold billions of other people’s money to save face, just so they wouldn’t have to admit that Project “Make Everyone Germany” has failed. But what they never acknowledged was that no matter how much they extend and pretend, the disease will always reach its crisis. And this financial disease is going to slay the patient. History is very clear on this point: debt kills.

"A judicial victory doesn’t automatically translate into a political victory, let alone a policy success."

In a free society, debate is over only when the people decide it’s over.

As we await the final capitulation by the ECB, EU and IMF to provide Greece another bailout (or not), we have assembled a list of reading for you that has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with Greece.

"You're cruisin' for a bruisin'." - Kenickie, Quote From "Grease"

Following yesterday's historic 6:3 Supreme Court decision enshrining the tax known as Obamacare, there was little surprise moments ago when in one of its last remaining decisions in re: Obergefell v. Hodges, the most liberal Supreme Court since 1960 just declared gay marriage legal nationwide. The decision, supported by all the women on the SCOTUS, came down in a 5:4 vote with Ginsburg, Sotomayor, Kagan, Breyer and Kenedy voting for, while Roberts, Scalia, Thomas and Alito dissented.

The Supreme Court ruled yesterday (June 25) in favor of the Obama Administration's current implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), denying claims from challengers that health insurance subsidies were improperly paid for enrollees in states that did not operate their own health insurance exchanges. Goldman explains what it means... (spoiler alert: more healthcare consumption - which translated means higher healthcare costs).

• Chinese Stock Plunge Leaves State Media Speechless (BBG)
• China’s Market Selloff Accelerates (WSJ)
• Any Deal on New Greek Bailout Funds Put Off Until Weekend (WSJ)
• ECB keeps ELA funding limit for Greece unchanged for third day in a row (Reuters)
• Impoverished Greek City Stands With Alexis Tsipras (WSJ)
• Why It Won’t Be a Default If Greece Misses IMF Payment Next Week (BBG)
• Valeant Makes Takeover Approach to Zoetis (WSJ) - or how Ackman assures himself another good T+3 quarter
• Obamacare ruling puts Supreme Court on hot seat in U.S. presidential race (Reuters)

The Supreme Court has ruled that people who bought healthcare coverage through federal exchanges as part of Obamacare can keep subsidies that effectively limit the amount low- and middle-income Americans pay for health insurance to 9.5% of their income or less.

"Washington broke arms and heads to get that 60th vote—not one to spare—to impose on the American people a plan which imperils their jobs, wages, and control over their own affairs. It is remarkable that so much energy has been expended on advancing the things Americans oppose, and preventing the things Americans want. The same routine plays out over and again. We are told a massive bill must be passed, all the business lobbyists and leaders tell how grand it will be, but that it must be rushed through before the voters spoil the plan. And when ordinary Americans who never asked for the plan, who don’t want the plan, who want no part of the plan, resist, they are scorned, mocked, and heaped with condescension."

"Americans increasingly believe that their country isn’t serving its own citizens... The same routine plays out over and again. We are told a massive bill must be passed, all the business lobbyists and leaders tell how grand it will be, but that it must be rushed through before the voters spoil the plan..  And when ordinary Americans who never asked for the plan, who don’t want the plan, who want no part of the plan, resist, they are scorned, mocked, and heaped with condescension."

If one excludes just three items: Obamacare, the "harsh winter", and near record inventory re-stocking in anticipation of a spending deluge that never comes, Q1 GDP would have tumbled nearly 2.0%.