OPEC

US Oil Rig Count Rises At Fastest Rate Since Jan 2010

With inventories once again on the rise, demand set to seasonally tumble, and production on the rise, the lagged response to the bounce in crude prices continues in the US oil rig count, rising 3 last week to 374. This is the 8th rig count rise in the last 9 weeks. The 58 rig rise (+18% off the lows) is the fastest since Jan 2010. Oil prices had melted up all day (despite record OPEC production) as the USD weakened, and extended gains despite the rig count rise.

Oil Surges After OPEC Production Hits Record High: Here's Why

Despite the return of the record OPEC oil production, crude is now surging for one simple reason: oil is inversely correlated with the dollar. And thanks to today GDP shock, which showed that the US economy grew far slower than expected, the dollar has crashed. Confused? Don't be: "Dollar weakness follows disappointing U.S. GDP data, consumer confidence." As a result, ugly economic data has sent the dollar tumbling, oil soaring, and the S&P near all timehighs. Q.E.D.

Dan Loeb Compares Managing Money In 2016 To A "Game Of Thrones" Slaughter

"Watching Jon Snow’s epic “Battle of the Bastards” scene in the penultimate episode of this season’s Game of Thrones gives investors a sense of how it has felt to manage money during some periods over the past year. Surging enemies forming a seemingly  impossible perimeter, a crush of fellow soldiers on the field, arrows coming in overhead..."

Oil Set For Bigger Drop As Historic Gasoline Glut Forces Early Switch To Winter Blends

Refiners are shifting to yet another desperate attempt to delay the inevitable market equilibrium point by switching from summer to winter blend as demand for the former has disappointed. The problem is that by doing so early, stocks of winter blend will fill that much sooner, and absent some miraculous surge in demand in the winter months, the moment when the price of oil tumbles has merely been postponed for a few months while assuring that the drop - when it comes - will be much more acute.

End Of An Era: The Rise And Fall Of The Petrodollar System

"The chaos that one day will ensue from our 35-year experiment with worldwide fiat money will require a return to money of real value. We will know that day is approaching when oil-producing countries demand gold, or its equivalent, for their oil rather than dollars or euros. The sooner the better."

"The World's Central Banks Are Making A Big Mistake"

Debt is future consumption brought forward. Once debt is incurred, consumption that might have happened in the future won’t happen. And it should come as no surprise that at a certain debt level, growth and income begin to diminish. That is exactly what we are seeing in the real world.

Who Really Won The Oil Price War?

It is probably a tie... Although the Saudis caused damage to U.S. shale, they also hit the global oil industry hard; and while they managed to preserve their market share, they paid a heavy price in terms of oil revenues.

The Peak Oil Paradox - Revisited

Is 'Peak Oil' dead and buried forever, or is it lurking in the shadows, waiting to derail the global economy again?

Why Oil Prices Might Never Recover

Two years into the global oil-price collapse, it seems unlikely that prices will return to sustained levels above $70 per barrel any time soon or perhaps, ever. That is because the global economy is exhausted. The current oil-price rally is over and prices are heading toward $40 per barrel. Oil has been re-valued to affordable levels based on the real value of money. The market now accepts the erroneous producer claims of profitability below the cost of production and has adjusted expectations accordingly. Be careful of what you ask for.

Global Stocks, Futures Rise On Disappointing Chinese Trade Data, Hopes For More Central Bank Intervention

In an otherwise quiet overnight session, which among other things saw Germany sell 10Y Bunds with a zero coupon and a negative yield (-0.05%) for the first time ever (despite being uncovered with just €4.038BN sold below the €5.00BN target) anyone hoping for a confirmation that China will be able to prop up the world economy once more, was left disappointed when earlier this morning China reported June exports and imports that once again dropped substantially in dollar terms as soft demand at home and abroad continued to weigh on the world’s largest trading nation.

Did Citi Just Confiscate $1 Billion In Venezuela Gold

Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro said on Monday that Citibank planned to shut his government's foreign currency accounts within a month, denouncing the move by one of its main foreign financial intermediaries as part of a "blockade." What Maduro did not mention is that among the central bank accounts closed by Citi will be at least one, rather prominent, gold swap launched just over a year earlier, which saw some 1.4 million ounces in gold swapped over to Citi in exchange for cash... gold which now appears to be confiscated.

Frontrunning: July 12

  • Stocks Advance on Stimulus Bets (BBG)
  • Japan to craft stimulus by end-July, may issue construction bonds (Reuters)
  • May ally says Britain to trigger EU divorce 'when we're ready' (Reuters)
  • Last Woman Standing, Theresa May Offers Calm on Brexit Road (BBG)
  • Merkel urges Britain to quickly clarify relationship with EU (Reuters)

Saudi Strategy Working: OPEC Captures Largest Market Share Since 1975

OPEC has captured its largest share of the oil market since 1975, which could be seen as a vindication of the cartel’s strategy over the past two years. But it also creates vulnerabilities for the U.S. and others, who are once again increasingly dependent on the Middle East for oil.