OPEC

Frontrunning: December 9

  • Futures rise as 'Trump rally' rolls on (Reuters), Oil Advances as European Stocks Extend Gains; Korean Won Slides (BBG)
  • Syrian government forces press attack in east Aleppo (Reuters)
  • Trump: China Will Have to ‘Play by the Rules’ (BBG)
  • Trump’s Cabinet Picks Signal Coming Deregulation Moves (WSJ)
  • Russia’s Military Buildup on the Baltic to Test Trump on NATO (WSJ)
  • OPEC’s Historic Deal Won’t Be Enough to Drain Oil Stockpiles (BBG)

Crude Tumbles Below $50 After Biggest Cushing Build Since Jan 2009

Crude prices are lower this morning following API's huge reported build at Cushing (biggest since 2008) and fears over OPEC deal realities. With expectations for a crude draw (on lower imports), DOE confirmed a bigger than expected overall draw but also Cushing saw a 3.78mm barrel build - the biggest since Jan 2009. Both Distillates and Gasoline (most since Jan) also saw bigger than expected builds as US production dropped very modestly.

OPEC Cheating Will Cap Oil At $52

OPEC succeeded in pulling off what many thought was impossible, overcoming mutual disdain and mistrust to reach a deal on reducing its oil output. Oil prices skyrocketed on the news, up more than 12% since the agreement was announced last week. But what if there is much less to the deal than meets the eye? What if OPEC does not actually follow through on the promised production cuts?

Longest Winning Streak For Global Stocks Since September On Monte Paschi Bailout Hopes, ECB Optimism

Global stocks extended the longest winning streak since September, with Asia up 0.8% and Europe rising 0.7% while bonds and credit markets strengthened amid hopes that the European Central Bank will prolong quantitative easing, while optimism an Italian bailout of Monte Paschi will prevent European bank contagion, has pushed European financial stocks higher. US equity futures were little changed.

WTI Pops Despite Biggest Cushing Inventory Build Since 2008

With OPEC behind us, perhaps the market's focus will swing back to fundamentals (as opposed to headlines) and following last week's huge build across products, API reported the second week in a row of crude inventory draws (bigger than the expected 1.37mm drop). However, Gasoline and Distillates saw major builds but Cushing inventories rose over 4mm barrels - the most since 2008. WTI seemed to focus on the crude draw at first...

How Russia Outsmarted OPEC

Russia, along with Iran, could turn into the big winner of the agreement, enjoying high output and higher prices, which would allow it to further expand its global market share. Unless, of course, OPEC lies, as former Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi plainly said this week. “Unfortunately,” he said, “we tend to cheat,” commenting on how OPEC handles its only tool of market rebalancing: production cuts.

Trade Deficit Grows More Than Expected As Stronger Dollar Pressures Exports

The U.S. monthly international trade deficit increased in October 2016 according to the U.S. Census Bureau, rising from $36.2 billion in September (revised lower from $36.4 billion) to $42.6 billion in October, higher than the $41.8BN consensus estimate, as exports decreased and imports increased which was to be expected following the recent surge in the US Dollar.

Frontrunning: December 6

  • For Europe’s Unity, 2017 Will Be a Year of Reckoning (WSJ)
  • Oil dips as OPEC, Russian output rises ahead of production cut (Reuters)
  • The Pessimist's Guide to 2017 (BBG)
  • Donald Trump’s Message Sparks Anger in China (WSJ)
  • Brazil’s Reform Plan in Disarray After Senate Chief Removed (BBG)

Global Stocks Rise As Oil Dips; US Stock Futures And Dollar Flat

European and Asian markets rose, while U.S. index futures were little changed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average pushing for yet another record, as traders digested the Italian referendum news, await the ECB's Thursday announcement and reflect in a notably quieter overnight session.  Oil slipped from a 16-month high after 4 straight days of gains.