OPEC

Having traded above $46 on Friday, WTI Crude is back to a $43 handle as it appears Iran's price cut, as we detailed here, sparked demand from China and India driving up Iran exports to 1 million barrels per day.

• China stocks slide as data raises fresh economy worries (Reuters)
• Was Tom Hayes Running the Biggest Financial Conspiracy in History? (BBG)
• The Fed’s Policy Mechanics Retool for a Rise in Interest Rates (NYT)
• Germany re-imposes border controls to slow migrant arrivals (Reuters)
• Thousands flee California wildfire as homes go up in flames (Reuters)
• Bavarian minister says German border controls could last for weeks (Reuters)
• China sells record FX in August, shows pressure after devaluation (Reuters)

"The shale sector is now being financially stress-tested, exposing shale’s dirty secret: many shale producers depend on capital market injections to fund ongoing activity because they have thus far greatly outspent cash flow."

"While we are increasingly convinced that the market needs to see lower oil prices for longer to achieve a production cut, the source of this production decline and its forcing mechanism is growing more uncertain, raising the possibility that we may ultimately clear at a sharply lower price with cash costs around $20/bbl Brent prices."

With Saudis blowing off an OPEC leaders meeting, Iran slashing prices to 3 year lows inventories rising rapidly but US production dropping quickly, and Goldman calling for $20 oil possible, it has been a busy (and mixed) week for oil news. Add to that the seasonal lull amid refinery slowdown/repairs and Today's 10 rig drop in US oil rig count to 652 (following last week's 12 rig drop) is the biggest 2-week drop in 4 months just adds to the noise with Texas rig count dropping most (-9 to 366). Crude prices are rising modestly as US rig count drops back to 2-months lows.

• One Volatile Week Could Seal Fed Stance After Years of Low Rates (BBG)
• Fed to dominate week of central bank meetings (Reuters)
• 30 years on, parallels with Plaza but currency universe very different (Reuters)
• Wal-Mart's Suppliers Are Finally Fighting Back (BBG)
• China's Rising CPI, Deepening PPI Deflation Challenges PBOC (BBG)
• Petrobras spending plan already obsolete, new cuts likely (Reuters)
• Bank of Montreal to Buy GE Capital’s Transportation-Finance Unit (WSJ)

Perhaps after intervening every single day in the past week (remember that FT piece saying the PBOC would no longer directly buy stocks... good times) in either the stock or the FX (both on and offshore) market, China needed a day off; perhaps even the algos got tired of constantly spoofing the E-mini and inciting momentum ignition, but for whatever reason the overnight session has been oddly uneventful, with no ES halts so far, few USDJPY surges (then again those come just before the US open), and even less violent CNY or CNH moves, leading to virtually unchanged markets in Japan (small red) and China (small green). And while the initial tone in Europe has been modestly "risk off", it is nothing in comparison to the massive gyrations that have become a stape in the past few weeks.

News That Matters

In what appears to be a bid to lure Asian buyers to lock in longer-term supplies, Reuters reports that Iran has cut its quarterly selling price (for its flagship 'light' crude) to its lowest (relative to Saudi) since Q4 2012. According to recent tanker loading data, Iran's oil sales in September are set to hit a six-month low, and this price reduction is just one of the steps taken by the OPEC producer to ramp up output and regain market share lost since U.S. and European sanctions aimed at its nuclear program cut its crude oil exports by more than half.

And monetary policies will be “ineffective”: Natixis

It has become virtually impossible to differentiate between actual central bank intervention, hopes of central bank intervention, and how the two interplay on what was once the "market" but is now merely the place where money printers duke it out every day in some pretense of price discovery set by those who literally print money.

News That Matters

The last time we looked at Chinese stocks, just a few hours ago, they were on pace to close back under 3000, following the latest collapse in trade, where in August exports dropped 5.5% (last -8.3%) while imports tumbled -13.8% in dollar terms (worse than the -8.1% prior). As the Reuters chart below shows, this was the 10th month in a row of declines and the worst stretch since the 2008 crisis, confirming China will need far more currency devaluation to stabilize the trade pain. And then Chinese authorities intervened with gusto, waiting until the start of the afternoon session, at which point a massive buying orgy ensued, and pushed the SHCOMP from down more than 2% to close at the day highs, up some 2.9%!

News That Matters

Rickards said that gold is like “fire insurance on your house” ... “Nobody wants their house to burn down but if it does you are glad you have some insurance”.