OPEC

If there was any doubt that the taper would take place shortly, it can be wiped out following the just released June international trade data, which showed a surge in exports to a record high $191.2 billion, an increase of $4.1 billion compared to May, even as imports declined by $5.8 billion to $225.4 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of just $34.2 billion, or 22.5% lower compared to the $44.1 billion in May, which is the lowest trade deficit since October 2009.  It is also the biggest beat to expectations of -$43.5 billion since March 2005. Whether this plunge in the deficit was the result of the new GDP methodology is unknown, however the resulting surge in revised Q2 GDP following this bean-counting addition to the last month of Q2, means that the economy grew even more than expected and that the Fed's tapering course is now assured. It also means Q3 GDP based on July trade data will be dragged down as there is no way this surge in the collapsing deficit can be sustained.

In order to maximize their long-term profit, the Saudi`s will be watching the shale-boom in the US for an optimal oil price. This will prove a challenge for an oil dependent nation as the natural gas price implies a far lower oil price than the political elite is comfortable with.

The conventional wisdom of the moment is that a weakening global economy will push the cost of commodities such as oil down as demand stagnates. This makes perfect sense in terms of physical supply and demand, but this ignores the consequences of financial demand and capital flows. The total financial wealth sloshing around the world is approximately $160 trillion. If some relatively modest percentage of this money enters the commodity sector (and more specifically, oil) as a low-risk opportunity, this flow would drive the price of oil higher on its own, regardless of end-user demand and deflationary forces. If we grasp that financial demand is equivalent to end-user demand, we understand why oil could climb to $125/barrel or even higher despite a physical surplus.

There is no doubting the massive reserves of fossil fuels still lying close to or just beneath the earth’s surface. One of the key points made in the first edition of Insight back in February is that we must factor in the cost of processing those fossil fuels before they can enter the energy market. The future of energy production is as much as about the economic cost of processing those supplies as it is about the extraction. 

• "Ooops": Barclays reveals £12.8bn balance sheet hole (FT), Barclays Bows to Pressure With Share Sale (WSJ)
• Bank of Italy Inspecting Top Lenders' Books (WSJ)
• Obama to propose 'grand bargain' on corporate tax rate, infrastructure (Reuters)
• China injects funds into money markets, quelling fears (FT)
• Berlusconi faces verdict that could endanger Italian government (Reuters)
• Shale Threatens Saudi Economy, Warns Prince Alwaleed (WSJ)
• Qatar Finds Revolution Abroad Not as Easy as Stock Picks (BBG)
• Cities Begin Hiring Again (WSJ) - not to mention filing for bankruptcy
• Big Question Hangs Over Small-Caps (WSJ)
• China Politburo Pledges to Press On With Restructuring Economy (BBG)
• Bank Revenues Surge on Trading Over What Fed Will Do (BBG)

The world can only build so much storage to store extra supply; at some point demand has to eat up this extra supply.

It is obvious that the oil market is out of touch with the fundamentals.  But this is just my analysis, let`s hear what Oil industry executives believe.

• Risk on assets supported by yesterday's speech by Bernanke, who said that highly accommodative policy needed for the foreseeable future and that current unemployment of 7.6%, if anything, overstates health of US labour market.
• ECB's Weidmann said that the ECB has not tied itself to the mast with forward guidance, which does not rule out rate hikes when inflationary pressures emerge.
• The BoJ kept their monetary policy unchanged and retained plan for JPY 60-70trl annual rise in monetary base.

A mixed picture is starting to emerge from the Middle East in terms of oil production. Several members of the 12-member OPEC oil cartel are embroiled in turmoil or struggling to ensure post-war political gains. Oil production from the Middle East declined by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2009. Production from most Middle East countries has slowed down or leveled off, though gains from Iraq have offset some of those declines. With economic recovery seemingly on the horizon, a new OPEC may be developing from the ashes of the recession.

• S&P Revises U.S. Credit Outlook To "Stable" From Negative

• Fed's Bullard Details How QE Can Be Cut

• Fed Retreat From Bond Buying Expected By Fourth Quarter - Poll

• U.S., Japan Leading Recovery In Major Economies - OECD

Over the past three weeks, there have been numerous headlines insinuating that a freefall in oil prices is underway. Last week we read that the various causes were a slowdown in China’s economy, OPEC’s decision not to cut production, and America’s growing oil production. Based on the headlines, one might suspect that we were right in the middle of a major bear market for oil. Just how far had the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fallen? Before the last couple of day's surge to over $96 a barrel, all the way to $92 a barrel. Keep in mind that WTI opened 2013 at $93.14 a barrel. Since then it has traded between $98/bbl and $86/bbl - so despite the bearish headlines, WTI is still trading above the average over the past 12 months. So is the 'crash' coming? 

More than 97,000 rail carloads of crude oil were delivered in the United States during the first quarter of the year.That's 20 percent more than the fourth quarter of 2012 and 166 percent more than during the same period last year. Rail shipments of grain, metallic ores and minerals declined, however. Oil companies are moving more of their oil by rail because pipeline capacity can't keep up with North American production gains. Last week, a pipeline planned from Texas to California was shelved because of the lack of shipper interest, though for rail, there's been relative surge in crude oil traffic. It remains to be seen if that can be sustained, however. The debate over pipelines versus rail hinges on access, price and reliability.

Technology, technology, and more technology—this is what has driven the American oil and gas boom starting in the Bakken and now being played out in the Gulf of Mexico revival, and new advances are coming online constantly. It’s enough to rival the Saudis, if the Kingdom allows it to happen. Along with this boom come both promise and fear and a fast-paced regulatory environment that still needs to find the proper balance. In an exclusive interview with Oilprice.com, Chris Faulkner, CEO of Breitling Energy Companies - a key player in Bakken with a penchant for leading the new technology charge—discusses: How Bakken has turned the US into an economic powerhouse; What the next milestone is for Three Forks; What Wall Street thinks of the key Bakken companies; Where the next Bakken could be; What to expect from the next Gulf of Mexico lease auction; What the intriguing new 4D seismic possibilities will unleash; What the linchpin new technology is for explorers; How the US can compete with Saudi Arabia; Why fossil fuel subsidies aren’t subsidies; How natural gas is the bridge to US energy independence; Why fossil fuels shouldn’t foot the bill for renewable energy; Why Keystone XL is important; Why the US WILL become a net natural gas exporter

Following April's surprising drop in crude imports which led to a multi-year low in the March trade balance (revised to -$37.1 billion), the just released April data showed an 8.5% jump in the deficit to $40.3 billion, if modestly better than the expected $41.1 billion. This was driven by a $2.2 billion increase in exports to $185.2 billion offset by a more than double sequential jump in imports by $5.4 billion, to $222.3 billion. More than all of the change was driven by a $3.2 billion increase in the goods deficit, offset by a $0.1 billion surplus in services.The Census Bureau also revised the entire historical data series, the result of which was a drop in the March deficit from $38.8 billion to $37.1 billion. In April 233,215K barrels of oil were imported, well above the 215,734K in March, and the highest since January. Furthermore, since the Q1 cumulative trade deficit has been revised from $126.9 billion to $123.7 billion, expect higher Q1 GDP revisions, offset by even more tapering of Q2 GDP tracking forecasts. And since the data is hardly as horrible as yesterday's ISM, we don't think it will be enough on its own to guarantee the 21 out of 21 Tuesday track record, so we eagerly look forward to today's POMO as the catalyst that seals the deal.

Shale gas is the latest hot potato that is being passed around the world. Are you with the in-crowd or out on limb? Ready to take the dive and place your country’s future in shale gas or go it as usual with domination of our energy sources with the petrol industry?