OPEC

Frontrunning: September 28

  • GOP Tax Proposal Expected to Benefit Wall Street Firms (WSJ)
  • Trump’s Tax Cuts May Produce Short Job-Growth ‘Sugar High’ (BBG)
  • Playboy founder Hugh Hefner dies at age 91 (Reuters)
  • Mountains of Aid Languish on Docks in Stricken San Juan (BBG)
  • Janet Yellen Can’t Help Retirees (BBG)

Global Bond Rout Accelerates Even As Dollar Rally Fizzles

In a continuation of trading patterns observed over the previous two days, on Thursday the global bond rout deepened in the aftermath of the release of President Trump’s tax-cut plan, Janet Yellen's recent hawkish comments and renewed optimism over the health of the U.S. economy.

Dollar Surges, Bonds Dump Ahead Of Trump Tax Plan

S&P futures are set for a higher open (+ 0.1%) despite the expected hit to the Dow from Nike, as European stocks gain while Asian shares dropped. Like yesterday when the big story was the jump in the USD ahead of Yellen's (rather hawkish) speech, so today the greenback's levitation has continued, this time propelled by the imminent unveiling of Trump's tax plan.

Is The Rally In Oil Sustainable?

"With respect to investors, the argument can be made that oil prices have likely found a long-term bottom in the $40 range. However, the fundamental tailwinds for substantially higher prices are still vacant. OPEC won’t keep cutting production forever, the global economy remains weak, efficiencies are suppressing demand."

Bill Blain: "Oil Could Change Everything"

"As a story, oil has further to run. The issue for markets is how dramatically will higher oil prices impact inflationary expectations in the current rosy Macro world-view? That could solve the lack of inflation at a stroke – but probably push stressed full employment economies like the UK into stagflation."

Brent Crude Spikes To Highest Since July 2015

North Korean war-talk has extended early gains for Brent Crude (driven by anxiety over the post-Kurd-referendum fallout), pushing prices to their highest since July 2015.

Global Stocks Mixed After "Nightmare Victory" For Merkel; Chinese Property Developers Crash

European stocks rose as the euro tumbled following Germany’s election result which was dubbed a "Nightmare Victory" for Merkel and could lead to complicated coalition talks. U.S. equity-index futures point to a lower open, while Asian equities slide after a plunge in Chinese property developer names as well as tech stocks following more iPhone delivery concerns. S&P500 futures are steady.