Open Market Operations
The last time the Fed tried to exit a period of massive balance sheet expansion coupled with ZIRP - back in 1937 - its strategy completely failed. The Fed tightening in H1’37 was followed in H2’37 by a severe recession and a 49% collapse in the Dow Jones. This is the ghost of 1937 and it is about to make a repeat appearance.
Will global QE carry on forever...the next month may give out some clues..will it be Junemaggedon after we had May-hem??
The Shanghai Composite is on the verge of 5,000 and has more than doubled in the past year but this may just be the beginning. The reason: if the Chinese stock bubble bursts, that will be the beginning of the end of the greatest con game in history.
The Fed stimulates absolutely nothing but the media’s descriptions of it and the various economists and their models that depend solely on them being successful in doing so. If recessions are emotional and irrational pessimism as the monetary textbooks believe, then QE and ZIRP are just right sort of “happy pills” to push emotions back to the “right” direction. Is it any wonder the economy is in danger of sinking toward catastrophic failure?
The law of unintended consequences is becoming ever more prominent in the economic sphere, as the world becomes exponentially more complex with every passing year. Just as a network grows in complexity and value as the number of connections in that network grows, the global economy becomes more complex, interesting, and hard to manage as the number of individuals, businesses, governmental bodies, and other institutions swells, all of them interconnected by contracts and security instruments, as well as by financial and information flows. It is hubris to presume, as current economic thinking does, that the entire economic world can be managed by manipulating one (albeit major) subset of that network without incurring unintended consequences for the other parts of the network.
The trio of macro-prudential policy, the onset and evolution of shadow banking, and the nebulous concept of financial stability may have become a toxic cocktail which can be instrumental in moving forward the Federal Reserve’s timeline for lift-off zero bound rates. The intuition here is stooped in concepts of volatility and how market structure evolution may contribute or detract from asset volatility. Volatility is the square root of time. Financial repression times time equals volatility. Financial repression and/or macro-prudential policy times time equals the inverse of financial stability. Financial stability inverted equals volatility squared.
NY Fed's "Plunge Protection Team" Starts Chicago Trading Floor "In Case Of Disaster Or Other Eventuality"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/15/2015 10:48 -0400
We have known for quite some time now that the NY Fed's market group, aka the Plunge Protection Team, is opening a second office in HFT-capital Chicago. What was not known is what is the official reasoning behind the Fed's move to be even closer to its Citadel executions arm. Overnight, courtesy of Reuters we found that the "The New York branch of the U.S. Federal Reserve, wary that a natural disaster or other eventuality could shut down its market operations as it approaches an interest rate hike, has added staff and bulked up its satellite office in Chicago."
Blogger Ben’s work is already done. In his very first substantive post as a civilian he gave away all the secrets of the monetary temple. The Bernank actually refuted the case for modern central banking in one blog. The truth is the real world of capitalism is far, far too complex and dynamic to be measured and assessed with the exactitude implied by Bernanke’s gobbledygook. In fact, what his purported necessity for choosing a rate “somewhere” actually involves is the age old problem of socialist calculation.
QE makes sense only from a Keynesian/socialist perspective and ignores the long-term cost of low interest rate policies to individual investors and financial institutions.
There is a tremendous denial by analysts and economists currently of the deteriorating economic underpinnings.
And so the first week of Draghi Open Market Operations (DOMO) ends and while yields have been pushed lower, the benefits of massive money printing are very much skewed to The North and not The South. Spanish sovereign bond risk ended the week unchanged (not exactly the exuberance Draghi hoped for) and Italy only 2bps lower. In equity land, the divergenes were enormous - German stocks soared to new record highs (up 3% this week and 21% year-to-date) as the rest of the majors rose less than 1%. Spanish stocks fell 0.6% but Greek stocks cratered over 9% on the week. Inflation breakevens also fell 6bps on the week...and Europe's VIX rose 0.3 to 18.85... oops.
As Mario Draghi unleashes his trillion euro bond buying program - aimed from what we are told, at lowering risk premia in credit markets to stimulate the eurozone's economy from utter stagnation - things are not going according to plan. Away from Greece, peripheral bond spreads are all up 8bps on the day and stock indices are mixed on this first day of DOMO (Draghi Open Market Operations) Of course, the other reason for Q€ is to implicitly (because one would never explicitly admit to joining the currency wars) devalue the currency - thus improving competitiveness and exports for the EU; but that's not working out so well as Germany's exports dropped and missed by the most since August... this was not supposed to happen.
It was not all smiles and jokes as Mario Draghi's European QE officially launched in Europe, with Greece leaving the proverbial turd in the monetary punch bowl.