• Tim Knight from...
    02/06/2016 - 00:25
    What we must remember is this: we are in a bear market, and the risk of a countertrend rally is present, but confined. The opportunity on the downside movement dwarfs the risk of a push higher, as...
  • Phoenix Capital...
    02/06/2016 - 10:15
    2008 was caused by derivatives based on consumer-focused assets (houses). The next crisis will be driven by derivatives on government-focused assets (bonds).

OpEx

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A Norwegian Gold Allocation Would Counter Sovereign Incompetence Risk





Many believed that the NOK was backed by oil, not requiring a gold reserve. However, oil is no longer a scarce resource but an abundant commodity. Switzerland, Germany, America and other first world nations have gold reserves. Norway should have one too.

 
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Investors Lose Faith - Slumping Stocks Give Up All Yellen Gains





It appears the "what the market missed" that we detailed earlier - This sets the Fed on a collision course with the market because "with the market pricing fewer hikes than the Fed suggests, someone is going to end up being wrong," - is starting to filter out to the mainstream. Despite exuberant buying in FANGs, the broad market indices have retraced the post-Yellen exuberance as bond yields fade, hinting at the market's growing realization that this could be a policy error.

 
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Don't Believe The Hope





If there is one chart that tells the 'truth' about the US equity 'market' it is this. Not only has breadth collapsed back to Black Monday lows (despite elevated index prices) but yesterday's exuberant rip higher diverged dramatically from a very significant drop (3 decliners for every advancer) in overall market breadth. Yes, it's Fed week, and OPEX, but the underlying support for the ponzi is waning rapidly.

 
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What The Charts Say: "Things Are Far From Well"





One can choose to ignore all these charts. However, many of them suggest eery similarity to 2007/2008 in structure. And if this structure plays out the so called "Santa" rally may not be all that it's cracked up to be. The cumulative message of all these charts: Things are far from well.

 
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A Heatmap Of Global CapEx 'Shrinkage'





Hot on the heels of the biggest collapse in Australian Capex ever, and just as we predicted back in 2012, we thought it about time to once again re-visit - Godot-like - the never-ending wait for 'recovery' (or ongoing crash) in Capital Expenditure around the world.

 
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What CNBC Didn't Tell You About The Market's "Best Week Of The Year"





"Everything is awesome," rang out as anchor after anchor explained how the stock market's "best week of the year" - after mass murder in Paris and as hawkish a Fed as most traders have known was unleashed - was just the start... and Santa Claus was on his way. However, there are a few things they forgot to mention...

 
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Why US Equities Are Rallying (In 1 Simple Chart)





One more time: It’s not Paris, Greece, China, Ebola, Fed rate-hike or not, etc... Nothing matters but OPEX...

 
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The Most Important Earnings Report You Should Know About





"As we progressed through the quarter, conditions softened. And September was especially weak, particularly in the U.S. product businesses....September typically is the strongest month of the year... There appears to be a general slowdown in U.S. industrial customer spending, both capital and operating spending.... we're not expecting to see sequential growth until the second half of the year (2016)"

- Keith Norbusch, ROK CEO

 
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Goldman Downgrades Valeant On "Lack Of Confidence" After Charlie Munger Slams Company





A bigger problem for Valeant, however, emerged today when none other than Warren Buffett's right hand man Charlie Munger in an interview with Bloomberg "tore anew into the besieged drug company, calling its practice of acquiring rights to treatments and boosting prices legal but “deeply immoral” and “similar to the worst abuses in for-profit education.”  And to prove just how much clout Munger does indeed have, moments ago the most important Wall Street bank, Goldman Sachs, downgraded Valeant to Neutral from Buy, cutting its share price target from $180 to $122.

 
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"No Brainer" AAPL Investors Anxious Amid iPhone Momentum Concerns, JPM Expects "Cautious" Guidance





Yesterday's tumble on the read-through from component-maker Dialog Semi added to fears, noted by Berenberg Bank the previous week, that iPhone sales momentum was not as rosy as Tim Cook told Jim Cramer after all, is not seeing many BTFDers this morning. As we previously noted, the China channel checks painted an ugly picture, and now JPMorgan (while maintaining their 'overweight' rating on AAPL) is warning that it expects "cautious guidance" amid a weakening global macro picture.

 
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