Pair Trades

Global Markets, Futures Slide Spooked By Poor Amazon Earnings, US Politics

S&P futures have tracked both European and Asian markets lower, which were dragged down by the big EPS miss and guidance cut reported by Amazon on Thursday. Meanwhile, the pounding of the dollar has resumed with the euro and sterling strengthening against the dollar due to renewed political concerns

Gundlach: "Deutsche Bank Will Be Bailed Out But What About Credit Suisse"

While Germany's largest lender would ultimately be rescued by the German government if needed, other banks in the region wouldn’t be able to count on such support, Gundlach said. “Deutsche Bank will be supported by Germany if push comes to shove, but what about Credit Suisse, which has shown a similar decline in stock price? Who’s there to bail them out?”

Gundlach: "The Market Will Keep Pushing Deutsche Bank Lower Until It Is Bailed Out"

"The market is going to push down Deutsche Bank until there is some recognition of support. They will get assistance, if need be. One day, Deutsche Bank shares will go up 40 percent. And it will be the day the government bails them out. That jump will happen in a minute," Gundlach said. "It is about an event which is completely out of your control."

"Eight Election Trades For November 8th"

On November 8th, the US Presidential election will take place. Below Bank of America lists eight trades, all specific to the election, some applicable to whoever wins, some dependent on the election result:

Goldman Explans Why Hedge Funds Got Crushed In 2016

"The outperformance of the largest hedge fund short positions relative to the most popular longs helps explain the especially weak returns of equity long/short hedge funds. The average hedge fund has returned -2% YTD compared with +1% for the S&P 500."

The New New 'Deal' - "Markets Are Too Important To Be Left To Investors"

In the same way that FDR had an existential political interest in generating inflation and preventing volatility in the US labor market, so does the US Executive branch today (regardless of what party holds the office) have an existential political interest in generating inflation and preventing volatility in the US capital markets. Transforming Wall Street into a political utility was an afterthought for FDR; today the relative importance of the labor markets and capital markets have completely switched positions. Today, the quote would be "markets are too important to be left to investors."

Stocks Get Second Thoughts About Greek Deal: Turn Red From China To Europe

One day after the Greek "pre-deal" was announced and the world breathed a sigh of relief, sending US stocks soaring and Greek halted stocks, well, tumbling (via ETFs and ADRs), things are oddly quiet and in fact quite red in Europe, with futures in the US modestly lower, following both China's first red close in several days (SHCOMP -1.2%), and a Europe which is hardly looking very euphoric at this moment: it is almost as if the algos finally got to read the fine print of the Greek deal after trading all day on just the headlines.

Greek D(efault)-Day Arrives, As Does China's Plunge Protection Team

The Greek D-(efault) day has arrived, and with it so has quarter-end window dressing for many underwater hedge funds (recall the S&P is now red for the 2015) which means the rumor mill today will be off the charts. And sure enough, less than an hour ago, futures exploded higher as did the EURUSD, following another "report/rumor" of a last minute detente between Greece and the Troika when Greek Ekahtimerini said that  "Tsipras is reconsidering the last-ditch offer made by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, sources have told Kathimerini."

Bill Gross: "My 'Short Of A Lifetime' Bund Trade Was Well Timed But Not Necessarily Well Executed"

Bill Gross just revealed another aspect of trading in the new (or any) normal: one may get the direction and the timing with laser-like precision (as Gross did on his Bund trade), but if said trade is excecuted in a way where the inherent "coiled spring" volatility of the Gross-defined "new normal" blows up the trade structure, the losses will make one wish never to have had the correct idea in the first place.

German DAX Rises Above 11,000 For First Time After European GDP Surprises To Upside

Who would have thought all it takes for Eurozone Q4 GDP to print above expectations, even if by the smallest of possible margins - one which even the Chinese goalseek-o-tron bows its head down to in respect - which at 0.3% Q/Q was above the 0.2% expected and above Q3's 0.2%, was for Europe to admit it has finally succumbed to deflation. Oh, and for the ECB to admit the situation has never been more serious by launching Q€. Oh, and add the "estimated contribution" to GDP from hookers and drugs. Put all that together and on an annualized basis, the European economy grew by 1.4%. Whatever the reason, Q4 GDP was the best print since Q1, even as Germany blew not only consensus of 0.3%, but the highest GDP estimate of 0.6% out of the water when it reported that courtesy of a spike in spending, its economy grew by 0.7% in the fourth quarter, up from the near-recessionary 0.1% in Q3. That, together with QE and ZIRP now raging across the continent, was enough to push the DAX above 11,000 for the first time ever.

Is This The Start Of China's Gold Miner Buying Spree?

Back in October of 2012, Hugh Hendry proposed a very simple investment thesis: '"I am long gold and I am short gold mining equities. There is no rationale for owning gold mining equities. It is as close as you get to insanity. The risk premium goes up when the gold price goes up. Societies are more envious of your gold at $3000 than at $300. And there is no valuation argument that protects you against the risk of confiscation. And if you are bullish gold why don’t you buy gold ETFs, gold futures or gold bullion." Since then, anyone who listened to Hendry has made a substantial double digit return (yes, one can make double digits returns on gold even when gold is sliding: such is the "magic" of long gold, short GDX pair trades). However, following a massive, 50%+ selloff, there comes a time when even gold miner stocks become attractive to those with deep pockets filled with reserve fiat. For someone like China, that time may be now. The WSJ reports that China's largest gold company, China National Gold Group Corp., has talked to Ivanhoe Mines "about buying a stake in or asset from the company."

Following Surge In "Fails To Deliver" To Two Year Highs, Treasury Market Finds A Brief Respite

Our "silver lining" concluding remark to last week's lackluster 10 Year bond reopening auction was that "the good news is that with the reopening, dealers should have some additional collateral for a while, or at least until the Fed monetizes it. Look for this CUSIP - VB3 (On The Run) to remain on the POMO exclusion lists for white a while." Sure enough, following the Friday settlement of this auction, things in the Treasury repo market have normalized somewhat after hitting very dangerous levels. How bad did it get? The following chart of failures to deliver from the NY Fed shows just how acute the shortage of "high quality collateral" (where the 10 Year is the fulcrum instrument) got in the past two months, with the total rising to $129 billion, or the biggest freeze in the repo market since the debt-ceiling crisis in the summer of 2011 when this number hit $280 billion.