Paul Samuelson

Goldman's Top Strategist Reveals The Two Biggest Risks To The Market Today

"We’ve also seen a growing allocation of retail and institutional money into “premium chasing” quant strategies, including, for example, ETFs that sell equity vol. I think many of these developments are positive, but the associated market structure remains largely untested. So I would not rule out the risk of a glitch that triggers, say, a 5-10% correction."

Keynes: A Master Of Confused And Confusing Prose

Today many people - economists, financiers, investors, busi­ness owners, and managers - say that Keynes is their intellectual hero. Have they actually read The General Theory? Have they read more than the few clear and witty passages so widely quoted?

What Nassim Taleb Can Teach Us

Nassim Nicholas Taleb does not suffer fools gladly... "we are increasingly ruled by an intellectual, political, economic, and cultural elite that does not bear the consequences of the decisions it makes on our (unwitting) behalf..."

John Maynard Keynes' "General Theory" Eighty Years Later

To the economic and political detriment of the Western world and those economies beyond which have adopted its precepts, 2016 marks the eightieth anniversary of the publication of one of, if not, the most influential economics books ever penned. Despite its outlandish theoretical flaws and nonsensical economic jargon and the catastrophic empirical evidence of its failure to prevent financial downturns or “stimulate” sustainable growth, Keynesianism remains the ruling paradigm of economic thought... Why?

Stephen Roach Says Trump's Right On Globalization: It's A Broken System

"While seemingly elegant in theory, globalization suffers in practice. That is the lesson of Brexit and of the rise of Donald Trump in the United States. And it also underpins the increasingly virulent anti-China backlash now sweeping the world. Those who worship at the altar of free trade, including me, must come to grips with this glaring disconnect."

The Fed Has Whiffed Again - Massive Monetary Stimulus Has Not Helped Labor, Part 1

There is a deep irony embedded in the Fed’s savage assault on savers and its delusional doctrine of interest rate repression. While this actually results in monumental windfalls to speculators and the one percent, it’s all justified in the name of boosting the labor market and the wage bill. All this money printing has been for naught. Notwithstanding the 9X eruption of the Fed’s balance sheet from $500 billion at the turn of the century to $4.5 trillion today, growth in the most basic measure of labor input - total hours worked - has come to a grinding halt.

Clinton Adviser, Nobel Prize Winning Economist Endorsed Venezuelan Socialism

Ludwig von Mises once wrote, "No one can escape the influence of a prevailing ideology.” The images coming from Venezuela should serve as a potent reminder of how dangerous the ideas of men like Joseph Stiglitz are. Statism and economic interventionism must be rejected, in order for humanity to thrive.

Keynes Must Die

The errors of Keynes have empowered sociopathic political classes all over the world and deprived the world of the economic progress we would otherwise have enjoyed. No amount of stimulus ever seems to be quite enough. And when the stimulus fails, the blinkered Keynesian establishment can only think to double down, never to question the policy itself. The Keynesians are pretending they have everything under control, but we know that’s a fantasy. Simply put, "Keynes must die so the economy may live."

"Nobody Really Knows Anything Right Now"

"We learned one thing yesterday: the U.S. Federal Reserve is in the same position as the rest of us when it comes to forecasting the future path of economic growth.  Nobody really “Knows” anything right now. Now, there’s enough doubt for everyone: markets, central banks, consumers, governments. Everyone. The best thing we can say about that: if markets accept that the Fed is no better informed than they are, maybe investors will devote more time to stock fundamentals and intrinsic value analysis."

Jim Bianco: "The Markets Are Telling Us There's A Severe Issue Out There"

"There is some truth to the phrase that the stock market has predicted nine of the last five recessions... but that is a much better track record than the consensus of economists. Every time the financial markets get volatile and messy like this it deserves attention because the markets are trying to tell us that there is a severe issue out there."

David Stockman Warns "Dread The Fed!" - Sell The Bonds, Sell The Stocks, Sell The House

Yellen and her cohort have no clue, however, that all of their massive money printing never really left the canyons of Wall Street, but instead inflated the mother of all financial bubbles. So they are fixing to blow-up the joint for the third time this century. That was plain as day when our Keynesian school marm insisted that the Third Avenue credit fund failure this past week was a one-off event - a lone rotten apple in the barrel. Now that is the ultimate in cluelessness.

The Reality Behind The Numbers In China's Boom-Bust Economy

The US Federal Reserve orchestrated an artificial boom from 2001 to 2007 through artificially low interest rates and has resumed doing so once again. Entrepreneurs operating under faulty market signals created by the Federal Reserve malinvested hundreds of billions of dollars into capital intensive projects primarily in the housing sector. We paid for our boom with millions of destroyed jobs, wasted labor, and wasted resources. The Chinese Central Bank learned nothing from the Fed’s catastrophic experiment. They will reap the same rewards.

Recession Odds Surge To 47%, Highest Since 2011

Assuming that after being wrong for 7 years about everything, economists are actually right about the market still having some discounting abilities left, what then is the market telegraphing? The answer, according to the Bank of America: the biggest surge in recessionary odds since 2011, which over the past few days have nearly hit a 50% probability of an economic slowdown.