Paul Volcker

Are Rate Hikes Bad For Gold?

Gold does not necessarily rise and fall with interest rates, jewelry demand in India, or any other widely believed nonsense. Rather, gold has moved in conjunction with perceptions as to whether or not the Fed and central banks have everything under control.

After Obama, A New Dawn Or More Of The Same?

Donald Trump will face his moment, like it or not. Barack Obama faced it and decided to kick the can down the road and opt for yet more “stimulus.” How Trump deals with it will determine whether or not the US economy recovers from bad policies, or goes the way of Japan and Europe.

It's The Dollar, Stupid!

We expect global monetary authorities to protect the dollar as long as they can and we expect them to fail. Stocks and bonds will react violently; stocks and weak credits falling, treasuries prices rising (at first). That failure will lead to hyperinflation – not driven by demand, but rather by central bank money printing. A new global monetary understanding will then emerge.

Chart(s) Of The Week: 'Lombard Street' For A New Age

Gold is collateral of last resort as it is near-universally accepted. Repo fails indicate, very strongly, collateral shortage. Put the two together and you get yet more evidence that central bankers really don’t know what they are doing. And, also like in Bagehot’s day, the repercussions are global.

Trump Vs China: Credit Cycles & Gold

As all experience from the past clearly demonstrates, it is a mistake to believe that the gold price is set solely by dollar interest rates, or its relative strength in other currencies. This being the case, the current weakness of the gold price is simply a reflection of temporary dollar shortages, and nothing more.

'Austrians' At The Fed?

Most financial journalists are not good, and in fact are wedded to a pro-Fed, pro-state ideology that subconsciously permeates everything they write. They are hopelessly unobjective, the naive products of their education and training. The world needs real diversity of thought and opinion, not the fake kind being discussed at the Fed.

Will Trump Fire Janet Yellen? Here Is Wall Street's Response

One of the burning questions troubling Wall Street this morning is whether president elect Donald Trump plans on reshuffling the Fed, eliminating its so-called "independent" and perhaps going so far as firing or "requesting" Janet Yellen's resignation. to answer the question whether or not Yellen's role is in jeopardy, we went to the two most authoritative sources available: JPM and Goldman.

Paul Volcker Explains Why The Fed Can't Raise Rates

"Our current debt may be manageable at a time of unprecedentedly low interest rates. But if we let our debt grow, and interest rates normalize, the interest burden alone would choke our budget and squeeze out other essential spending. There would be no room for the infrastructure programs and the defense rebuilding that today have wide support."

The Fed Has Made Another Massive Policy Error

The Great Recession was a result of a massive monetary policy error. The Fed kept rates too low for too long, which - when coupled with lax or no regulation in the mortgage markets - resulted in a housing bubble and a crash. This then bled over to global markets. We are again suffering the effects of a massive monetary policy error. The error has already been committed, but we have just begun to endure the consequences.

Frontrunning: October 19

  • China third quarter GDP grows 6.7 percent as expected as construction booms, debt rises (Reuters)
  • China Growing at 6.7% Opens Window to Deliver Debt-Curb Vow (BBG)
  • U.S. expects Islamic State to wield chemical weapons in Mosul fight (Reuters)
  • Iraq urges U.S.-led coalition to prevent Islamic State escape to Syria (Reuters)
  • Fox national poll shows Clinton leading by six points (Hill)