People's Bank Of China

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Frontrunning: July 21





  • Gold claws back ground, European assets lose Greek tarnish (Reuters)
  • Greece's Euro Exit Back on the Agenda Next Year, Economists Say (BBG)
  • Greece submits bill needed to start rescue talks (Reuters)
  • Wall Street Lenders Growing Impatient With U.S. Shale Revolution (BBG)
  • Overtime Rules Send Bosses Scrambling (WSJ)
  • As Markets Swing, Beijing Steadies Yuan (WSJ)
  • Tennessee rampage suspect went to Qatar in 2014 (Reuters)
  • Kathryn Dominguez to Be Nominated for Fed Governor (WSJ)
 
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China's Annotated Collapse Into Centrally-Planned Market Hell





For those curious what it looks like when a centrally-planned market devolves into complete chaotic hell despite the relentless intervention of the local authorities and central planners, look no further than the chart below...

 
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China Challenges Gold Price-Setting Regime; Confirms Launch Of Yuan-Denominated Fix





Less than two weeks after Bank of China became the first Chinese bank to join the list of participants in the London gold auction, The Shanghai Gold Exchange confirms that a yuan-denominated gold fix will be in place by the end of 2015.

 
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Confusion Reigns At PBoC As Multi-Trillion Yuan Bailout Threatens To Undermine Rate Cuts





While China is rather proud of the fact that it hasn't yet implemented outright QE, Beijing has now put in place a bewildering hodge-podge of hastily construed easing measures that can't seem to get out of their own way.

 
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Frontrunning: June 5





  • Europe shares set for worst week of 2015 (Reuters)
  • Jobs Report Not Likely to Trigger June Rate Hike (Hilsenrath)
  • U.S. jobs market seen firming despite lackluster growth (Reuters)
  • Gross Says Bond Rout Scary as Hell Even Without Bear Market (BBG)
  • Apple Is the New Pimco, and Tim Cook Is the New King of Bonds (BBG), which ZH said in 2013
  • In 'year of Apple Pay', many top retailers remain skeptical (Reuters)
  • OPEC Nations Signal Few Prospects for Oil-Production Change (BBG)
  • China regulator says amending rules on margin trading, short selling  (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: May 19





  • China’s Record Capital Outflows Spark Financial Stability Fears (FT)
  • U.K. Inflation Falls Below Zero for First Time Since 1960 (BBG)
  • Islamic State Solidifies Foothold in Libya to Expand Reach (WSJ)
  • Judge sentences 11 Afghan police over lynching of woman in Kabul (Reuters)
  • The $18 Trillion Global Economic Boost If Everything Went Right (BBG)
  • Eurozone Prices Confirmed Flat Year-on-Year in April, Core Inflation Inches Higher (Reuters)
  • Greek Finances to Stagger On Longer Than You Think (BBG)
  • Athens sees EU deal soon, Greeks' approval of government stance dwindles (Reuters)
 
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What The Sellside Thought Of China's Leaked Rate Cut





As the SHCOMP soars, the sellside reacts to China's latest round of easing and the message is clear: more policy rate cuts are in the cards as real lending rates remain elevated and deflation risk remains high. Meanwhile, the PBoC's statement was making the rounds on WeChat hours before its official release suggesting Janet Yellen isn't the only central banker that enjoys leaking information.

 
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China Cuts Rates (Again) In Desperate Bid To Buoy Stocks, Rescue Economy





On the heels of last week's equity rout, China cuts interest rates for the third time since November. The move comes on the heels of last month's RRR cut and follows trade data that missed expectations (again) and a PPI print that betrayed persistent deflation risks. Perhaps more importantly, Chinese stocks fell last week amid still more rumors that tighter margin requirements are on the way. 

 
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The End Of The "Reflation" Trade? China To Focus On Fiscal Stimulus, Avoid Monetary Policy





As a result of constant jawboning that the PBOC may not only cut rates even more but proceed to launch QE (which it will ultimately, just not for a while), both the Shanghai Composite has been trading at multi-year highs and oil has found a bid strong enough that in the past two months it has surged by some 50% on hopes that Chinese demand will finally come back once the local economy is so weak it leaves the PBOC no other choice. However, two things suggest that the great "reflation" trade is ending.

 
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"China Has A Massive Debt Problem", And Why It Is About Get Much Massiver





"China has a $28 trillion problem. That’s the country’s total government, corporate and household debt load as of mid-2014... equal to 282 percent of the country’s total annual economic output," Bloomberg notes, adding that efforts to deleverage this massive debt burden aren't compatible with the measures Beijing needs to take to boost economic growth. But if you thought the debt problem was bad now, it's going to get worse because as Reuters notes, China is about to activate the ABS machine.

 
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China’s Stealth Gold Reserves To Quadruple as IMF Seek Answers





The People’s Bank of China may have tripled holdings of bullion since it last updated them in April 2009, to 3,510 metric tons. It is worth noting that the U.S. refuses to allow their gold reserves to be publicly audited and the Bundesbank is having difficulty repatriating much of its gold stored with the Federal Reserve. This has led many analysts to speculate that the U.S.’s gold reserves have been leased out or sold or are encumbered as part of an ongoing effort to manipulate gold prices.

 
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Artist's Impression Of China's Soft Landing





The following clip seemed to sum up perfectly just what The PBOC is attempting to do (and just exactly how it will end). With Chinese equities entirely decoupled from any sense of fundamentals, elementary-school-educated people piling their life savings into a market that is up 100% YoY amid the worst economic conditions in a decade or more, and margin trading that is surging (and now being probed - as Reuters reports, PBOC Shanghai has asked banks to check margin trading risks); how could anything go wrong?

 
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Frontrunning: March 30





  • Setbacks and progress as Iran, six powers meet to end nuclear impasse (Reuters)
  • Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Leave Iran Nuclear Talks (WSJ)
  • Obama Ramps Up Lobbying on Iran as Deadline Looms (WSJ)
  • Greek yields edge up as lenders scrutinise reform pledge (Reuters)
  • Oil prices drop on possible Iran deal, dollar (Reuters)
  • Yemen’s Houthis Battle for Aden as Saudi Strikes Hit Rebels (BBG)
  • Iran nuclear deal to see $20 oil if Tehran floods crude market (Telegraph)
  • China’s Zhou Says PBOC Has Room to Act on Growth Slowdown (BBG)
 
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